V
The most bizarre example of this
unwisdom relates to the foodgrain economy: in a
country of starving millions over 45 million tonnes of
foodgrain stocks are held which the government does
not know what to do with, and is even exporting abroad
at prices charged to the BPL population, i.e. prices
less than those charged in the domestic market. The
high carrying costs of these stocks (including
interest costs) are the principal reason behind the
inflated the food subsidy bill. The government's
misguided effort to curb food subsidy by increasing
PDS prices, such as the one undertaken in last year's
budget, has the apparently paradoxical effect of not
doing so: the higher prices simply lead to lower
offtake which keeps the foodgrain stocks larger than
before and hence their carrying cost increases. As a
result the total food subsidy remains as large as
before while its composition changes with a higher
share going for holding costs and a lower share to the
consumer.
Some have even suggested a dismantling of the entire
PDS, on the grounds that this would bring down the
foodgrains price. But while that may be true today,
and may even get rid of the existing unwanted stocks,
the suggestion is extraordinarily short-sighted: when
market prices rise at some future date, the poor would
be without any protection in the absence of the PDS.
The whole point of the system of
procurement-cum-public distribution that has prevailed
in the country for the last three and a half decades
has been to keep down the amplitude of price
fluctuations both for producers and for consumers,
which would have otherwise been extremely large in the
free market, and which is actually extremely large in
the world market. The system has been remarkably
successful in meeting this objective. If the level of
the food price is high in the PDS, and there is an
inadequate lifting of stocks, then the solution lies
in putting grater purchasing power in the hands of the
poor, so that they can lift larger stocks, rather than
in dismantling the system altogether. In other words a
simple solution exists to the problem of surplus
foodstocks, namely to expand the food-for-work
programme. This would get rid of the stocks by
enabling the poor to consume more food; and if
properly conceived could even result in the creation
of rural infrastructure and community assets.
This however is not on the government's agenda, since
it would raise the size of the fiscal deficit. This
particular objection to an enlarged employment
programme is doubly erroneous: first, in a
demand-constrained system, a rise in State expenditure
on the poor, even if financed by a fiscal deficit,
should be welcome anyway. (If international finance
disapproves of it and expresses this disapproval
through capital outflows, then that constitutes an
argument for controlling its unrestricted movement
rather than for restricting such expenditure).
Secondly, a substantial part of this expenditure which
would flow back to the FCI (or to other State-owned
units) does not even constitute fiscal deficit, since
it leads to no increase in the net indebtedness of the
State. Yet, so great is the current obsession with
restricting the fiscal deficit that the government is
willing to dismantle the PDS rather than undertake a
larger employment-generation programme.
This effectively is what the current budget has
announced, notwithstanding all claims to the contrary.
What appears at first sight as a mere transfer of the
responsibility for procuring and distributing
foodgrains from the central government to the state
governments, actually amounts to a blow against the
entire system for at least two reasons. First, any
replication of the problem of unsold stocks, which
currently plagues the system as it is run by the
Centre, at the level of the states, would place the
latter in a far worse position to take corrective
measures. This is because the Centre has passed the
burden of the fiscal crisis down to the level of the
state governments to a point where it is even more
acute for them than for the Centre. Secondly, states
which are far removed from the centres of procurement
will have to pay much more for food even if they
continue a system of public distribution, since the
Central government will no longer provide them with
food, and since the cash subsidy it will give would
only cover the BPL population. Under these
circumstances the maintenance of a system where both
producers and consumers are offered a degree of
insulation from extreme price fluctuations will become
well-nigh impossible. The virtual dismantling of the
PDS, instead of supplementing it with a food-for-work
programme, is perhaps the most disastrous fall-out of
the obsession with the fiscal deficit, which, as Joan
Robinson would have put it, is part of the "humbug of
finance".