|
The
Hegemony of the Dollar |
Dec
16th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Kliberal
opinion holds that the international monetary and
financial system is a device for promoting the interests
of all participating countries by providing a convenient
payments arrangement within which trade can be carried
on.
|
|
COP29:
The message from Baku |
Dec
1st 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
When
Azerbaijan as the Presidency of this year's Conference
of Parties (COP29) held at Baku, in Azerbaijan, informed
delegates working on extended time that participating
countries had arrived at an agreement, there were
many who disagreed.
|
|
The
COP29 Collapse |
Nov
26th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The collapse of COP29, slated as a climate finance
summit, should come as no surprise. Developed countries
had shown in multiple ways that when it comes to the
crunch they would walk away.
|
|
Diplomacy
as Diversion |
Nov
25th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
In
global climate negotiations, that continued at the
twenty ninth edition of the Conference of Parties
(COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, there is agreement on
one issue.
|
|
The
Crisis of Liberalism |
Nov
18th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Trump's
victory in the US Presidential election conforms to
a pattern presently observable across the world, namely
a collapse of the liberal centre and a growth in support
either for the Left, or for the extreme Right, the
neo-fascists, in situations in which the Left is absent
or weak.
|
|
The
Geopolitics of the Natural Gas Trade |
Nov
13th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Changes in global natural gas trade have reflected
geopolitical alignments but these may shift, depending
on policies of incoming US President Donald Trump.
|
|
The
Kazan Summit of BRICS |
Nov
11th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Kazan summit of the BRICS countries was a historic
one for several reasons: first, it created a new category
called “partner nations” as a step towards full membership,
and accepted 13 such new “partner” countries, among
whom were Cuba and Bolivia.
|
|
The
Angst over China's Slowdown |
Oct
29th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While the evidence that GDP growth in China has slowed
is clear, the dire predictions they have given rise
to are exaggerated.
|
|
Economics
Nobel: No surprises |
Oct
28th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
Sveriges Riksbank Prize, the Nobel for "Economic
Sciences", has always been controversial. This
is true of the 2024 award to Daron Acemoglu, Simon
Johnson, and James Robinson as well.
|
|
Falling
Shares of Labour Income |
Oct
15th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The latest World Employment and Social Outlook Report
(update for September 2024) from the International
Labour Organisation highlights some disturbing trends.
|
|
Response
of the Defeated: EV protectionism in advanced economies |
Oct
14th 2024, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
In
early October, in a show of pique, a European Commission
proposal to impose additional tariffs of up to 35.3
per cent (on top of the pre-existing 10 per cent)
on electrical vehicles (EVs) imported from China,
was passed by a majority vote in the European parliament.
|
|
Imperialism's
Striving for Expansion |
Oct
14th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
"inevitable striving of finance capital",
Lenin had written in Imperialism, (is) "to enlarge
its spheres of influence and even its actual territory".
|
|
The
Stagnation of the World Economy |
Oct
7th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
fact that the world economy has slowed down since
the financial crisis of 2008 is beyond dispute. In
fact even conservative American economists have started
using the term “secular stagnation” to describe the
current situation (though they have their own peculiar
definition for it).
|
|
Banking
Turmoil in a Declining Europe |
Sep
30th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Europe
is clearly battling to stall its decline in the global
economy. Most recently, the Mario Draghi report on
“The future of European competitiveness” commissioned
by the European Union reflected that sentiment.
|
|
West
Africa's Resistance against Imperialism |
Sep
30th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
West
Africa, which had been largely under French colonial
rule, never saw decolonisation of the sort that India
did.
|
|
Africa-China
Economic Relations: The next phase |
Sep
17th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The FOCAC summit suggests that China is entering a
new phase of economic relations with Africa, with
more targeted investments reflecting changed global
realities.
|
|
The
Bizarre State of Western Democracy |
Sep
9th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
During
the entire post-war period when it has been in existence
in the metropolitan countries, democracy has never
been in as bizarre a state as it is today. Democracy
is supposed to mean the pursuit of policies that are
in conformity with the wishes of the electorate.
|
|
The
Chinese Threat in Critical Minerals |
Sep
4th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
China's restrictions of a year ago on export of critical
materials may not have yet been disruptive. But the
speculative price increases they have triggered could
explain renewed concerns about supply.
|
|
The
Criminality of Unilateral Sanctions |
Sep
2nd 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
During
Modi’s visit to Ukraine (why he visited Ukraine at
all at the present time remains a mystery), Zelensky
asked India not to purchase fuel from Russia in violation
of western sanctions, that is, to fall in line with
the “unilateral” western sanctions.
|
|
The
Transient "Miracles" |
Aug
26th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
A
Good deal of analysis of the recent political upheaval
in Bangladesh has focussed on the high-handedness
and authoritarianism of Sheikh Hasina's government;
it has either missed altogether, or generally underplayed,
the change that has occurred in the economic situation
in that country.
|
|
The
Pitfalls of Growth Under Unrestricted Trade |
Aug
19th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
French economist J B Say had believed that there could
never be a problem of aggregate demand in any economy,
that whatever was produced was ipso facto demanded.
|
|
Sri
Lanka's Debt Restructuring - A win for private bondholders |
Jul
23rd 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
Sri Lankan government announced that it has reached
an agreement with its foreign private creditors to
restructure the $12.5 billion of its external debt
that they hold. The agreement incorporates a novel
instrument: a macro-linked bond for which the payout
is linked to the GDP performance of the debtor country.
|
|
Why
do Domestic Food Prices keep going up when Global Prices
Fall? |
Jul
24th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
After rising rapidly from early 2020, global food
prices have been falling from July 2022. But domestic
food prices have continued to rise, especially in
low income countries. We explore these trends and
the possible reasons.
|
|
Adam
Smith on Bengal and North America |
Jul
22nd 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
In
his opus The Wealth of Nations published in 1776 Adam
Smith drew a distinction between the progressive state,
the stationary state and the declining state.
|
|
Halting
the March of Fascism in Europe |
Jul
15th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
coming to power of governments led by fascists is
either a reality or a threat today over large parts
of the world. In Europe at present there are several
countries where fascists are leading governments;
France was on the verge of being added to this list,
in which case it would have been the second major
European power, after Italy, to have a fascist government.
|
|
AI
and Employment |
Jun
24th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
fundamental issue raised by Hollywood writers when
they had gone on a strike against being replaced by
artificial intelligence, somehow receded to the background
after the resolution of that particular conflict;
but it remains a fundamental issue.
|
|
Global
Diffusion of Production and the Concept of Imperialism |
Jun
17th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There
has been a significant diffusion of production occurring
in the world economy. Many call this phenomenon a
shift from a US-led world economy to a "multipolar
world economy", but no matter what one thinks
of this description, the fact of diffusion is indubitable.
|
|
What
the Indian Election Result means for Europe |
Jun
10th 2024, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Against
all odds, in the elections to India’s parliament,
whose results were announced last week, the opposition
I.N.D.I.A. alliance managed to prevent the rampaging
ruling party, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP), from securing a majority on its own.
|
|
Chicanery
versus Humanity |
May
20th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
current protests in US university campuses demanding
"divestment" from firms linked to Israel's
military machine, are reminiscent of the protests
that had swept these campuses in the late sixties
and early seventies demanding an end to the Vietnam
war.
|
|
Water
Flowing Upwards: Net financial flows from developing countries |
Apr
30th 2024. C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Both private and public sources of capital have been
disturbingly procyclical for low and middle income
countries, forcing them to become net providers of
financial resources to the North and to multilateral
institutions.
|
|
The
Collapse of Neoliberal Privatisation |
Apr
19th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Thames
Water, one of England's many regional water monopolies,
infamously privatised by Margaret Thatcher in the
1980s and symbolising the dramatic turn in economic
policy that neoliberalism implied, is finally collapsing.
|
|
In
the Name of the South: India's aggressive economic diplomacy |
Mar
26th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
India's
government has since the year of its G20 Presidency
claimed to have restored the country's role as the
'Voice of the South' in global dialogues. That is
often backed up by reference to its efforts to focus
attention on the problem of debt stress and default
in poor developing countries, and to the induction
of the African Union into the G20.
|
|
Subtle
War at the WTO |
Mar
7th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
At
the time of writing, the 13th ministerial meet of
the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is under way in
Abu Dhabi. Among the many issues that are being discussed
are two of concern for less developed countries generally
and India in particular.
|
|
Maldives:
Debt and dependence |
Feb
20th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Maldives is vulnerable to debt distress as the IMF
suggests, but that is not a problem to be resolved
only by the Maldives government but by an international
community that has aggravated the island nation's
vulnerability.
|
|
The
Descent into Barbarism |
Feb
19th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
In
The Junius Pamphlet written from jail in 1915, Rosa
Luxemburg had said that the choice before mankind
was between barbarism and socialism. Liberal opinion
would contest this, arguing that the barbarism that
marked the two world wars and the period in between
was unrelated to capitalism;
|
|
Distress
and Displacement in Times of War |
Feb
9th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Recruitment
drives held over the last week of January, in Lucknow
in Uttar Pradesh and Rohtak in Haryana, for Indian
workers to undertake construction and caregiver jobs
in Israel have captured global attention.
|
|
The
IMF and the Argentinian Right |
Jan
25th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
On
January 10, the IMF announced its decision to release
$4.7 billion out of a $57 billion bailout package
sanctioned in 2018 to perennially debt-distressed
Argentina, then under a right-wing government headed
by Mauricio Macrio.
|
|
World
Economy: Out of control |
Jan
23rd 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As fears of inflation recede, the prospect of a medium-term
slowdown in the global economy looms. The problem
is that global leaders have lost control of both macroeconomic
policy and the economy.
|
|
The
Theoretical Significance of Lenin’s Imperialism |
Jan
22nd 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
significance of Lenin’s Imperialism lay in the fact
that it totally revolutionised the perception of the
revolution. Marx and Engels had already visualised
the possibility of colonial and dependent countries
having revolutions of their own even before the proletarian
revolution in the metropolis.
|
|
Lessons
from a Zambian standoff |
Jan
19th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
recent collapse of the protracted negotiations to
restructure Zambia's external debt, following a default
in November 2020, underlines the failure of the prevailing
international financial architecture to address global
challenges.
|
|
Another
COP-out |
Dec
26th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The claim that COP28 marked a significant step forward
in the battle against climate change is not corroborated
by the willingness of the developed countries to commit
the needed finance.
|
|
The
Unbalanced World Economy |
Dec
12th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Financial imbalances that impact on countries' net
international investment positions are now much more
important than current account imbalances, in determining
debt stress.
|
|
Settler
Colonialism under a Shroud of Victimhood |
Nov
20th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
eighteenth and nineteenth centuries had witnessed
the emergence of two different paradigms of colonialism:
the first, of which India was the classic example,
involved the conquest of countries which had had a
history of established central administrations.
|
|
New
Estimates of Offshore Wealth held by Indians |
Nov
14th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
New estimates of offshore wealth held globally allow
for a more granular examination of wealth held abroad
by India residents. The results are disturbing—and
raise questions about why Indian tax authorities are
not doing more to prevent this.
|
|
Western
Left and the US-China Contradiction |
Nov
6th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Significant
segments of the non-Communist Western Left see the
developing contradiction between the United States
and China in terms of an inter-imperialist rivalry.
|
|
Climate
Finance: The IMF's stance |
Oct
31st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The IMF's stance on modes of financing the climate
mitigation and adaptation effort amounts to a call
to absolve developed countries of their historical
responsibility.
|
|
Genocide
in Gaza |
Oct
23rd 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
In
response to the attack by Hamas on October 7, Israeli
forces have not only pounded the Gaza strip with massive
bombing, killing nearly 2000 Palestinians and wounding
at least 7000 (till Friday night), but have cut off
all supplies of food, electricity, gas and water to
Gaza.
|
|
Globalised
Capital and National Leadership |
Oct
9th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
One
of the most intriguing questions at present is why
Europe's political leadership has become complicit
in what appear to be US efforts at undermining European
economies.
|
|
The
Silences of the Delhi Declaration |
Sep
18th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
G-20 meeting in Delhi was occurring in the midst of
an acute economic crisis of the world economy. The
advanced capitalist economies are expected by the
IMF to witness a growth slowdown from 2.7 per cent
in 2022 to 1.3 per cent in 2023.
|
|
Behind
BRICS Expansion |
Sep
4th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
At
the Johannesburg summit of the BRICS countries, it
was decided to expand the group beyond its original
five, namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South
Africa, to include six more countries. These are:
Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates.
|
|
The
Stalled Decolonisation |
Aug
21st 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Much
of the ex-colonial world, having set up dirigiste
regimes to wrest control over its natural resources
from metropolitan capital and to build up industries
behind protectionist walls, was sought to be re-assimilated
into imperialist hegemony through the neo-liberal
economic order; but in one segment of this world decolonisation
itself was never completed.
|
|
The
IMF Bias: Signals from Pakistan |
Aug
11th 2023, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
On
July 14 this year, the shaky government of a debt-stressed
Pakistan, won itself a surprising reprieve. The country
had experienced a collapse in foreign reserves to
less than one month worth of imports and was on the
verge of defaulting on its external debt of more than
$120 billion.
|
|
The
Recurring Crisis: Debt in the LICs |
Aug
8th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
To address the debt crisis in the LMICs and prevent
its recurrence, it is necessary to address the failure
of the international order to provide space for poor
countries to earn the foreign exchange needed to service
external debt.
|
|
A
Half-hearted Effort: The G20's finance track |
Jul
27th 2023, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
With
three middle income countries serving or designated
as consecutive Presidents of the G20, it is expected
to serve as a forum to advance dialogue on debt justice
and climate finance. But progress may be slow and
limited.
|
|
Why
the Paris Financing Summit failed |
Jul
18th 2023, Jayati Ghosh, Sandrine Dixson-Declève
and Johannah Bernstein |
|
The
June 22-23 Summit for a New Global Financing Pact
promised to catalyze a revolution in climate finance
and empower the Global South. But it failed to meet
its lofty goals, concluding without a single firm
commitment or concrete proposal to help developing
countries reduce their debt burden and move away from
fossil fuels.
|
|
Third
World External Debt in the Light of Simple Economics |
Jul
17th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
India
and other third world countries can morally justify
their being a part of G-20 alongside the imperialist
powers, only if they raise common and pressing problems
of the third world as a whole at G-20 meetings.
|
|
'Shock
Therapy' Sri Lankan-style |
Jul
15th 2023, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
On
July 1, Sri Lanka's parliament approved through a
majority 122-versus-62 vote, a plan to restructure
the government's domestic debt totalling 15.4 trillion
Sri Lankan rupees (SLR) at the end of March 2023.
|
|
The
Implications of Dollar Hegemony |
Jun
26th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
How
exactly is the dollar’s status as reserve currency
related to imperialism? This question has two parts:
how this status of the dollar is related to U.S. imperialism,
and how it is related to the overall imperialist arrangement.
|
|
Pitfalls
of Export-Led Growth |
Jun
19th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
After
Sri Lanka and Pakistan, Bangladesh has become the
third country in our neighbourhood to become afflicted
by a serious economic crisis. It has asked for a $4.5
billion loan from the IMF, apart from $1 billion from
the World Bank and $2.5-3 billion from multilateral
agencies and donor nations.
|
|
Is
"De-Globalisation" Occurring? |
Jun
5th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Many
economists these days talk of a process of "de-globalisation"
taking place; some others talk of the neoliberal regime
of yesteryears no longer existing.
|
|
The
US Debt Ceiling Debate |
May
22nd 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Under
pressure from globalised finance capital, most countries
of the world have enacted legislation fixing the size
of the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP; generally
it is 3 per cent, and in India it is 3 per cent for
the centre and 3 per cent for the states.
|
|
Public
Opinion and Imperialism |
May
15th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
A
New York Times News Service report reproduced in The
Telegraph of Kolkata (May 7), discusses the findings
of a global public opinion survey carried out by the
Bennett Institute of Public Policy of Cambridge University.
|
|
The
Potential of Tax Reform in Latin America |
May
2nd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Recent changes in some Latin American tax regimes,
especially in Colombia, provide useful pointers for
taxation strategies in other developing countries.
|
|
Threats
to the Hegemony of the Dollar |
May
1st 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Janet
Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has finally acknowledged
what has been obvious to most people for quite some
time, namely that the imposition of sanctions against
countries that the US is hostile to, runs the risk
of jeopardising the hegemony of the dollar as the
world’s reserve currency.
|
|
World
Economy: The long recession |
Apr
19th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The world economic outlook released in time for the
recently concluded spring meetings of the World Bank
and the IMF presents a gloomy picture. Global GDP
growth is expected to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022
to 2.8 percent in 2023, and recover only marginally
to 3.0 percent in 2024.
|
|
OPEC+
and Capitalism's Fight against Inflation |
Apr
17th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Except
in war-time, capitalism invariably seeks to control
inflation by creating a recession; and this is so
even when the inflation has been caused by an autonomous
increase in capitalists' profit-margins which are
downward inflexible and hence would not be reduced
by a recession.
|
|
A
Systemic or Fleeting Crisis? |
Mar
31st 2023, Rana Mitra |
|
The
month of March 2023 has come out to be yet another
nightmarish experience for the world of global finance,
after the collapse of Washington Mutual and Lehman
Brothers in September 2008.
|
|
The
Changing Structure of Global Imbalances |
Mar
21st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The differences in performance between less developed
economies have tended to blur the North-South divide
in the global distribution of balance of payments
surpluses and deficits. But for most, that divide
remains a reality.
|
|
The
Collapse of US Banks |
Mar
27th2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There
is nothing mysterious about the reasons for the collapse
of the Silicon Valley Bank and the Signature Bank
in the United States.
|
|
Imperialism
and Natural Resources |
Mar
13th2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There
is an overwhelming asymmetry between the level of
"development" and the possession of natural
resources among countries of the world. Take the group
of most advanced countries, the G-7 comprising the
US, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada.
|
|
Pakistan's
Debt Crisis: No resolution in sight |
Feb
21st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The IMF cannot resolve Pakistan's debt crisis, though
it is influencing policy on the grounds that it can.
|
|
The
'Rent Good' and Imperialism |
Jan
30th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Economic theory makes much of "rent goods".
A "rent good" is one whose supply cannot
be augmented at will, simply through investing more
on its production; its supply is subject to constraints
imposed by nature, because of which there is a certain
maximum rate of long-run growth which is exogenously
given and cannot be altered at will.
|
|
Davos
Man Must Pay |
Jan
18th 2023, Jayati Ghosh |
|
To mitigate the worst effects of climate change and
prevent societal breakdown, we must shift to renewable
energies and reduce extreme inequality. But doing
so would require massive increases in public spending,
which is why governments must overhaul their outdated
and regressive tax systems.
|
|
How
not to Deal with a Debt Crisis |
Jan
18th 2023, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Jayati Ghosh warns against historically disastrous
approaches to the sovereign-debt crisis hitting low-
and middle-income countries.
|
|
Inflation
in an Unequal World Economy: How the fed's policies are
doubly perverse for the global south |
Jan
16th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Tight monetary policies in rich countries obviously
affect people in the countries where they are applied,
but they also cause ripple effects across the world.
We were already in a very unequal world before the
most recent global price increases.
|
|
The
Impending World Recession |
Jan
16th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has
now openly admitted that the year 2023 will witness
the slowing down of the world economy to a point where
as much as one-third of it will see an actual contraction
in gross domestic product.
|
|
The
Real Failure at Sharm El-Sheikh |
Dec
13th 2022, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
As COP27, the climate summit at Sharm el-Sheikh in
Egypt, ended after a being prolonged, assessments
of what it achieved were mixed. But the overwhelming
sense was that the summit had yielded little, since
on most counts it had not gone beyond the pledges
agreed to at COP26 held in Glasgow last year and incorporated
in the Glasgow Climate Pact.
|
|
The
Fiscal Requirement of a Welfare State |
Dec
5th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The post-second world war period had seen a spate
of welfare state measures in the advanced capitalist
countries, especially in Europe, in emulation of what
the Soviet Union was effecting.
|
|
India's
China-trade Challenge |
Nov
29th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A spike in India's imports from China and a widening
of the trade deficit it records with that country
points to fundamental weaknesses in India's industrial
development trajectory.
|
|
The
Collapse of FTX |
Nov
28th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The large cryptocurrency exchange FTX went out of
business on November 11. Many have likened this phenomenon
to the collapse of the investment banking firm Lehman
Brothers during the financial crisis of 2008, believing
the FTX collapse to be as important an event in the
cryptocurrency world as the collapse of Lehman Brothers
in the official financial system.
|
|
The
Outflow of Finance from the Periphery |
Nov
21st 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There are two defining and portentous features of
the current world economic situation. One, which is
well discussed, is the world-wide increase in interest
rates in response to the pervasive inflationary upsurge;
it would indubitably generate recession and unemployment,
which, notwithstanding all protestations to the contrary,
is the real objective behind it.
|
|
The
Monetary Policy fallout for Developing Countrie |
Nov
15th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Coping with the adverse fallout of tighter monetary
policy in the advanced economies will require developing
country governments to shift from openness that increases
their own vulnerability to a more creative and flexible
approach that provides greater policy autonomy.
|
|
The
Unfolding Global Crisis |
Nov
10th 2022, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The IMF's most recent World Economic Outlook, released
in time for the annual meetings of the IMF and the
World Bank in Washington, presents a confusing picture
of what shapes the present global conjuncture.
|
|
Whatever
Happened to Liz Truss? |
Oct
31st 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The most intriguing question with regard to Liz Truss’
resignation as the prime minister of Britain after
a mere 44 days in office is this: what is it about
her economic programme that the ''market'' (read ''finance
capital'') found unpalatable? At its core after all
was tax-cuts for the rich, which the ''market'' should
have lapped up.
|
|
The
New Threat on the Foreign Exchange Front |
Oct
3rd 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
On September 23, the value of the rupee vis-à-vis
the dollar fell to a new low: it crossed 81 to a dollar
after some weeks of relative stability when it hovered
between 79 and 80. And it fell despite the Reserve
Bank's running down of foreign exchange reserves in
a bid to hold up its value.
|
|
Europe's
Economic Hara-Kiri |
Sep
26th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The cessation of natural gas supplies from Russia
to Europe in retaliation against Western sanctions
imposed on Russia because of the Ukraine war, is threatening
Europe not only with a winter with inadequate heating
that will take a big toll in terms of lives among
poor people, but also with large-scale closures of
enterprises; such closures would push up the unemployment
rate, and significantly increase poverty and destitution
among the workers.
|
|
Food
Prices and Hunger in Low and Middle Income Countries |
Sep
20th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The major food crisis now emerging in much of the
world is not about supply shortages. It reflects ologopolistic
and speculative behaviour in global food markets,
along with falling purchasing power and currency depreciation
in low and middle income countries.
|
|
Bonds
of Debt |
Sep
6th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The rush of sovereign bondholders to less developed
countries was seen as an opportunity by many governments.
But increased dependence on those bonds has not only
contributed to a debt crisis but made resolution near
impossible.
|
|
Controlling
Inflation at the Expense of Working Class |
Sep
5th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Economists distinguish between two kinds of inflation:
"demand-pull" and "cost-push".
Demand-pull inflation is said to occur when there
is excess demand in a situation where supply cannot
be augmented, because full capacity output has been
reached in one or more crucial sectors.
|
|
Sanctions
and the Decline of the Dollar |
Aug
22nd 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The hegemony of the US dollar was based on the fact
that the world's wealth-holders considered it to be
"as good as gold", even when it was no longer
officially convertible to gold at a fixed rate, as
it had been under the Bretton Woods system, after
the collapse of that system.
|
|
What's
Really Happening with Exchange Rates? |
Aug
9th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Exchange rates have behaved very differently from
what many pundits predicted at the start of the Ukraine
war. This requires careful reconsideration of the
various factors that determine their movement.
|
|
Scandinavia
and Imperialism |
Jul
18th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There are many misconceptions about Scandinavian capitalism.
A very common one is the belief that since the Scandinavian
countries developed vigorous capitalist economies,
without ever having acquired any colonies of their
own, they constitute a clear refutation of the claim
that capitalist development necessarily requires imperialism.
|
|
The
Rupee's Fall: Is this time different? |
Jul
11th 2022, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
All is not quiet on India's external economic front.
The rupee seems to be on a trajectory of accelerating
decline, with its value relative to the dollar (as
per the Reserve Bank of India's reference rate) falling
from Rs. 76.4 at the beginning of April to Rs. 79.1
at the beginning of July.
|
|
The
Rupee's Decline |
Jun
28th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Over the last three years the Indian rupee has experienced
continuous decline, with bouts of sharp depreciation
influenced by multiple factors but led principally
by capital outflows.
|
|
COVID
and the Broken Global Order |
Jun
27th 2022, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
When the COVID pandemic affected every one of the
world's nations, the way forward seemed obvious, even
if difficult to traverse. Given the rapid spread of
the disease and its severity that overwhelmed long
neglected health systems, and the cost to lives and
livelihoods that shutdowns of economic and social
activity implied, quick access to drugs and vaccines
to manage the pandemic were crucial.
|
|
Danger
Signals from the Crypto Casino |
Jun
24th 2022, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The meltdown in May 2022 in the cryptocurrency world,
in which the values of digital coins plunged and rendered
some near-worthless, is a wake-up call. It once again
shows that cryptocurrencies are nothing but a bunch
of insubstantial, digital 'bits' created by speculators
as 'coins' for speculation.
|
|
Neo-Liberalism
and Anti-Inflationary Policy |
Jun
6th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Central banks all over the capitalist world are raising,
or are about to raise, interest rates as a means of
countering the currently rampant inflation, which
is certain to push a world economy that is barely
recovering from the effect of the pandemic, back towards
stagnation and greater unemployment.
|
|
Tendency
towards the Emergence of an “International” Middle Class |
May
30th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The chancellor of the exchequer of Britain, whose
official residence is only next door to the British
prime minister's, is Rishi Sunak, a person of Indian
origin. Britain's home secretary is Priti Patel, also
of Indian origin.
|
|
Food
and Decolonisation |
May
9th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Russia and Ukraine together account for 30 per cent
of the world’s wheat exports. Many African countries,
in particular, are heavily dependent on them for their
food supplies, which are now getting disrupted because
of the war; and this disruption would continue since
the war is also affecting the acreage being sown under
foodgrains there.
|
|
Roots
of the Sri Lankan Debt Trap |
May
3rd 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Having embraced neoliberal reform in the late 1970s,
Sri Lanka had privileged access to large borrowing
from the IMF and private financial markets. Exploiting
that privilege has proved to be a poison pill.
|
|
A
World Economy in Disarray |
May
2nd 2022, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
When the world's financial leaders met mid-April at
Washington for the annual spring meetings of the International
Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the mood was one
of gloom.
|
|
Reflections
on the Sri Lankan Economic Crisis |
May
2nd 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
So much has been written on the Sri Lankan economic
crisis that the facts are by now quite well-known
(see for instance C P Chandrasekhar, Frontline April
22): the massive build-up of external debt; the huge
Value Added Tax concessions that pushed up the fiscal
deficit and made the government borrow abroad even
to spend domestically;
|
|
Panic
about Petrol Prices |
Apr
19th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Governments of rich countries are the ones showing
the greatest panic in responding to rising global
oil prices, but the relative price of petrol is already
much higher is low and middle income countries with
bigger poor populations.
|
|
Crisis
in an Island Economy |
Apr
6th 2022, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Sri Lanka's economy is sliding into chaos afflicted
with multiple crises, triggered by a steep fall in
foreign exchange revenues during the Covid pandemic,
a difficult to manage external debt servicing burden,
a collapse in the volume of foreign exchange reserves,
and finally the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine.
|
|
Unwarranted
Confidence |
Apr
5th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The complacency generated by India's low external
debt exposure and large foreign reserves ignores the
composition and character of that exposure.
|
|
The
Irony of Sanctions against Russia |
Mar
28th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The juggling which US imperialism has to do to maintain
its hegemony becomes more bizarre by the day. First,
it kept needling Russia ("provoking the bear")
"on behalf of the western alliance" by expanding
NATO to its very borders, knowing full well that Ukraine's
joining NATO would be totally unacceptable to Russia.
|
|
The
Fragility of Contemporary Capitalism |
Mar
21st 2022, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
While the world remains preoccupied with the geopolitical
and humanitarian fallout of the Russian invasion of
Ukraine, its economic consequences are increasingly
a matter for concern.
|
|
Sanctions
within a Regime of Neo-liberalism |
Mar
14th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Before joining the neo-liberal order, India used to
have "rupee payment arrangements" with the
Soviet Union and Eastern European socialist countries
under which the main international reserve currency,
the US dollar, was used neither for settling transactions
nor even as the unit of account in terms of which
the trade-related transactions were denominated.
|
|
Collateral
Damage: Ukraine invasion and energy markets |
Mar
8th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has roiled energy markets.
All sides lose. The US and its allies because of energy
shortages and inflation; Russia because oil is crucial
to its economic performance.
|
|
The
Economy on the Eve of the Budget |
Jan
31st 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Indian economy is currently mired in a vicious cycle
of inflation, stagnation, and budget deficit expansion.
And this spiral is projected to worsen with adverse
changes in the global economy.
|
|
Carbon
Emissions and Climate Inequality |
Nov
30th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Current measures of climate responsibility understate
the emissions created by final demand, especially
in the advanced countries, because they ignore how
countries can "export carbon emissions"
through imports. But measures to address this through
trade protectionism will be counterproductive.
|
|
Fears
of a New Era |
Nov
30th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Signs of investor reticence are visible across all
emerging markets. There is a more serious fear of
the exit of foreign investors from equity and bond
markets, consequent to a readjustment of monetary
policy in the advanced economies. Indian stock markets
are faltering as well, yet India is one of the better
performers.
|
|
The
Rich World's Climate Hypocrisy |
Nov
16th 2021, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Global leaders, especially in the developed world,
still fail to grasp the gravity of the climate challenge.
Although they acknowledge its severity in their speeches,
they mostly pursue short-term national interests,
without clear and immediate commitments to act.
|
|
The
Global Divergence gets Bigger |
Nov
2nd 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Inter-country economic inequalities have been greatly
accentuated by the pandemic, to a level that is likely
to become unsustainable and generate significant geopolitical
tensions.
|
|
What
has the Trade "War" between the United States
and China Achieved? |
Oct
5th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
US-China trade war has not affected the continued
increase in the US trade deficit. But the real purpose
is control of frontier technologies.
|
|
How
Dynamic is Global Capitalism? |
Sep
7th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Capitalism
is conventionally portrayed as a dynamic system driven
by private investment sustained by forces of competition.
However, evidence from the globalisation years suggests
that neither growth nor the levels and pattern of
investment support that view.
|
|
Mexico's
Turn away from Neo-liberalism |
Aug
23rd 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
President Lopez Obrador of Mexico has been putting
in place a range of economic changes that represent
a turn away from neoliberalism and re-institution
of a dirigiste regime. Unsurprisingly, he is being
attacked by the Western press for this temerity.
|
|
Apocalypse
or Cooperation? |
Aug
12th 2021, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The perfect storm of Covid-19 and climate change delivers
the glaring message that the apocalypse is now. The
novel coronavirus mutates into more transmissible,
drug-resistant variants, while climate catastrophe
plays out in real time.
|
|
Interrogating
the Holy Grail of Productivity Growth |
Aug
2nd 2021. Jayati Ghosh |
|
One thing most economists agree on regardless of their
ideological persuasion, is the importance of productivity
increases. Yet, of all economic concepts widely in
use, that of aggregate productivity may be the most
problematic and full of conceptual and measurement
holes.
|
|
The
Global Minimum Corporate Tax: Not high enough, not fair
enough |
Jul
24th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Following years of negotiations, most nations have
now agreed on the need of a global minimum corporate
tax rate to prevent multinationals from evading taxation
in the jurisdictions in which they operate. While
this is a step forward, it is disappointingly short
of what is needed and possible.
|
|
Vaccines:
Europe will regret privileging profits over people |
Jul
24th 2021, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Europe should realize that their own governments are
operating against their own interests to suit Big
Pharma. The pandemic will not be over until global
mass vaccination is completed. So even without an
international solidarity, it is in the self-interest
of Europeans to demand that their governments put
people above profits.
|
|
G7:
Promising more from less |
Jun
26th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
While the global minimum tax proposal in the finance
minister's communique before the G7 summit is a step
forward, it is disappointingly short of what is needed
and possible. Yet it caught the media's almost-undivided
attention, because it speaks of a new effort by the
richest nations to transform fiscal rules in search
of revenues.
|
|
A
Crumb from the G-7 Table |
Jun
21st 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The G-7 countries have promised to donate a billion
anti-Covid vaccine doses to developing countries,
which although sounds a lot, is, in reality, a meagre
amount compared to what the advanced capitalist countries
have hoarded or need for their own population.
|
|
Property
Rights and Pandemic Deaths |
Jun
14th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
For universal vaccination to become a reality a massive
increase in output is required and what stands in
the way of it is capitalist property right. Despite
largely using public funds to develop the Covid-19
vaccines, a few multinational drug companies wish
to cling to their monopoly positions to profiteer
from human misery.
|
|
Next
Steps for a People's Vaccine |
May
8th 2021, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Biden administration's decision to stop opposing
a proposed COVID-19 waiver of certain intellectual-property
rights under WTO rules is a welcome move. But ending
the pandemic also requires scaling up knowledge and
technology transfer, as well as public production
of vaccine supplies.
|
|
Economic
Divergence Gone Awry |
May
5th 2021, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
With ambition restricted to the core, there is little
hope of an adequate recovery from the pandemic, let
alone a Green, Resilient and Inclusive one in the
periphery. The grossly unequal vaccine access will
perpetuate the pandemic's adverse effects for quite
some time to come.
|
|
Four
Ways Biden can Boost the Global Economy |
Jan
20th 2021, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The US is nowhere near as economically dominant as
it was even a decade ago. Yet President-elect Joe
Biden can take several relatively simple steps that
would have far-reaching benefits for the US economy,
the American people, and the rest of the world.
|
|
Prepare
for a Surge in Global Inequality |
Jan
12th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The differential ability, resulting from preexisting
global inequality, to address the Covid crisis with
increased government spending is likely to substantially
worsen those inequalities.
|
|
Misconceptions
about the Food Economy |
Dec
28th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The Indian intelligentsia suggests that the Indian
kisans should move away from producing foodgrains
towards other crops and import foodgrains from metropolitan
countries, but it would take India back to the pre-Green
Revolution days.
|
|
Firing
a Warning Shot across Big Tech's Bows |
Dec
15th 2020, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The novel coronavirus pandemic further enhanced the
monopoly power of the big tech giants, but the lawsuits
and regulatory moves in the West suggest that their
easy, unchecked expansion may be coming to an end.
|
|
RCEP
and China: A deal that can make a difference |
Dec
15th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
As a trade promoting arrangement the RCEP is no game
changer, but it possibly serves China’s interests
by giving China a freer access to a 'common market'
of considerable size and significance, without the
presence of India and the United States, which share
the objective of wanting to counter China's rise.
|
|
Vaccine
Apartheid |
Nov
17th 2020. Jayati Ghosh |
|
Because a pandemic can be overcome only when it is
overcome everywhere, embracing an every-country-for-itself
approach would seem irrational. And yet, as the unseemly
competition for vaccine doses indicates, that is exactly
what many countries have done.
|
|
The
Remittance Shock |
Nov
17th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Dependence on remittances is proving to be an additional
source of vulnerability among low and middle income
countries in Covid times. But not all are affected
to the same degree: and those more dependent and facing
larger losses are badly hurt.
|
|
South
Korea: Debt in the time of Covid |
Nov
16th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
South Korea has successfully managed the Covid-19
pandemic, providing evidence of a strong public health
system and buttressing the view that besides success
with growth, South Korea has also considerably improved
its social sectors like education and health.
|
|
Tech
Platforms Feel the Heat |
Nov
13th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The US Justice Department has filed an anti-trust
lawsuit against Google for the misuse of monopoly
while the US Federal Trade Commission is likely to
launch an antitrust case against Facebook due to complaints
of its anti-competitive practices, but this may just
be an election year stance.
|
|
Developing
Asia: The growing divergence between China and the rest |
Nov
3rd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Growing divergence in economic performance between
China and the rest of Asia indicates both reduced
regional integration and setbacks in some of China’s
Asian neighbours.
|
|
Labour
Hours Lost During the Pandemic |
Nov
2nd 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
As per the statistics provided by the International
Labour Organization (ILO), workers across the world
have suffered while the billionaires never had it
so good, but the third world workers suffered the
most due to the loss of autonomy of their governments
in the era of globalization.
|
|
Billionaires
and the Pandemic |
Oct
26th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The pandemic, just as any other crisis, has become
a mechanism for the centralisation of capital arising
from the inability of small wealth-holders to face
stock-price collapses that the billionaires can face
and the pooling together of vast masses of small capitals
into a few large ones.
|
|
Resistance
to Change at the IMF |
Oct
26th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The shift in IMF recommendations from fiscal austerity
to enhancing public expenditure, is seen as a telling
shift, although this recommendation is nothing more
than just obvious, given the pandemic's fall-out in
the form of compressed demand and increased unutilized
capacity in industry.
|
|
Branding
Debt as a Chinese Weapon |
Sep
2nd 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Developed countries have opposed IMF support for debt
stressed developing countries on the grounds that
the money would be used to meet debt obligations due
to China, but if China is seen as using debt to buy
influence, then that can be prevented, ironically,
by paying off the debt.
|
|
Lebanese
Portents |
Aug
17th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Lebanon has been in the grip of an economic crisis
for quite some time and with the coronavirus crisis
the world recession has become even more acute. These
phenomena are common in the third world and they follow
from the pursuit of neo-liberal policies that are
not concerned about improving the conditions of the
people or the economy.
|
|
Asia's
Covid-19 Response and the Road to a Green Recovery |
Aug
7th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Across the world, the governments are under the pressure
to proactively allocate resources to address the pandemic
leading to a shift in priorities and focus on expenditures
that render an environmentally just recovery. Proactive
fiscal policies have been adopted in Asia as well,
but the responses vary across countries.
|
|
Developing
Asia's External Debt Concerns |
Jul
14th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Developing Asia's external debt can emerge as a major
vulnerability not so much because of the volume of
debt, but because of its composition, especially the
greater reliance on short term debt and foreign holders
of debt securities.
|
|
FTAs
and the Race to the Bottom |
Jul
6th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The recently concluded EU-Vietnam FTA is likely to
increase Vietnam's exports at the expense of other
developing countries, triggering competitive policy
shifts inimical to long term development. In India,
it is likely to be exploited by a neoliberal government
to push its agenda to sign similar agreements.
|
|
Another
Financial Rescue by the US Fed |
Jun
11th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The performance of financial markets and the real
economy have diverged sharply in the aftermath of
the Covid-induced crisis. The Fed's actions have a
role to play, by infusing the cheap liquidity that
fuels speculative investment and lending.
|
|
The
Problem of External Debt |
Jun
3rd 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The build up of external debt in developing countries
is putting further strain on their already dwindling
public revenues. Deferring debt service payments by
the G20, instead of writing off some debt, will only
increase their burden in the future.
|
|
New
Fronts in the US-China Trade War |
May
19th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As the world grapples with the fall-out of the Covid-crisis,
the Trump administration is ramping up its protectionist
rhetoric vis-à-vis China. If this leads to
new sanctions it would not help the US but worsen
the Covid-induced trade crisis.
|
|
How
to Build the Global Green New Deal |
May
12th 2020. Jayati Ghosh |
|
The sharp and rapid increase of inequality due to
the Covid-19 pandemic is driving home the urgency
of internationalism. Jayati Ghosh explains how we
can change the global economic architecture to enable
a Global Green New Deal.
|
|
Contours
of the Covid-crisis |
May
5th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Early evidence shows that official response to the
Covid-induced crisis in the US and Europe may lengthen
recession. If the needed fiscal effort is not put
in place even a delayed recovery may prove elusive.
|
|
Finance's
Preference for the Metropolis |
May
4th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Globalized finance, by nature, prevent welfare spending
by third world governments and enforces their subservience
vis-a-vis advanced economies. Delinking from current
globalization therefore tantamount to freedom from
hegemony of finance capital.
|
|
The
Exodus of Finance from the Third World |
Apr
27th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The exodus of finance from third-world countries is
impairing their ability to manage foreign-exchange
reserves. Unlike swap-line accommodation by the US,
fresh issue of SDRs will help boost the reserves of
these countries without any discrimination.
|
|
When
the US and India Together Failed the Developing World |
Apr
21st 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
India has betrayed the developing world by blocking
a proposal for the IMF to issue new SDRs, which would
have provided much-needed liquidity at a time of crisis.
|
|
Oil
Shock Reversed |
Mar
30 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
In a dramatic post-Coronavirus-pandemic turn, the
agreement between OPEC and some non-OPEC oil exporters
has collapsed, causing global demand-supply imbalances
and depressed prices. Back home Indian governments’
response of raising excise duty on fuel might intensify
the recession.
|
|
Coronavirus
and Capitalism's Vulnerability |
Mar
11th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The production setback triggered by the coronavirus
epidemic in China will soon be fed by countries turning
propagators. Prospects of deep recession now seem
daunting as the fragility of neo-liberalism is revealed.
|
|
No
Escape from Low Growth |
Feb
11 th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Although unresolved trade tensions and shocks like
the coronavirus epidemic are valid concerns for the
world economy, the low growth syndrome that policy
has not addressed predates these new concerns.
|
|
End
of the Free Trade Myth |
Dec
4th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
As
prospects of the collapse of the WTO Appellate Board
draws near, "emerging markets" like India
cannot take even the current level of "free"
trade for granted. They must rethink the open-door
policy, especially the free flow of finance.
|
|
The
Growing Threat of Water Wars |
Nov
14th 2019, Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
2015, United Nations member states adopted the Sustainable
Development Goals, which include an imperative to
"ensure availability and sustainable management
of water and sanitation for all." Yet, in the
last four years, matters have deteriorated significantly.
|
|
The
World Economy in Decline |
Oct
18th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Lowering
interest rates to revive economic activity has been
ineffective, because the global slowdown since 2008
is not the result of "dented animal spirits"
of capitalists, but the contractionary and inequalizing
tendencies of neoliberal capitalism.
|
|
The
Systemic Crisis of World Capitalism |
Aug
26th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
world economy is facing a looming recession; protectionist
measures by the U.S. and China will worsen the crisis
for all. What is required to counter the recession
is incresing government expenditure within each country.
|
|
The
Bogey of Currency Manipulation |
Jun
18th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Which emerging markets have seen significant depreciation
of their exchange rates? And should “currency manipulation”
be blamed for that?
|
|
Economic
War with no End in Sight |
Jun
14th 2019, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
In
the U.S.-China tariff war, there is no economic gain
to be derived by either side. But the U.S. is pushing
ahead by bringing in the national security angle because
the political stakes are too high.
|
|
Disruption
in the World of Trade |
Jun
6th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
World trade is slowing. While the US triggered trade
war with China is part of the explanation, the real
driver is a loss of momentum in the world economy.
|
|
The
Global Shift to the Right |
Jun
3rd 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Prabhat
Patnaik argues that no matter how politically successful
across the world the Right is today, it is incapable
of leading people out of the current state of crisis
and unemployment.
|
|
Belt
and Road Diplomacy |
May
14th 2019, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
C.P.
Chandrasekhar argues that despite the "opening
up" of the BRI and the concessions being offered
by China on BRI projects, the initiative still has
China at the centre with the aim of widening its sphere
of influence.
|
|
The
Spectre of Higher Oil Prices |
May
7th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The decision of the US government under Trump to end
the waivers from sanctions on imports of oil from
Iran that were given to eight countries could trigger
a spike in oil prices. That can have adverse implications
for India's balance of payments stability and inflation
trends.
|
|
Blind
Conservatism |
May
1st 2019, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Despite
the failure of unconventional monetary policies to
reverse the global slowdown and new downside risks,
the IMF is only willing to grudgingly accept the need
for a fiscal stimulus.
|
|
China's
Trade with other Asian Countries |
Apr
23rd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
China's trade with Asian developing countries is more
significant than ever - but not always in ways that
benefit them.
|
|
Vanishing
Green Shoots |
Apr
9th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Governments and central banks that were upbeat about
global economic recovery are turning pessimistic,
making this one more episode of a green shoot that
died young.
|
|
The
Anatomy of Imperialist Intervention |
Feb
20th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
U.S.
coup attempts, particularly in Venezuela, reveal the
nature of imperialist intervention specific to the
era of neo-liberalism. Efforts to overthrow democratically-elected
government to advance a corporate agenda have never
been so explicit earlier.
|
|
"Wageless
Growth" not "Jobless Growth" the new conundrum |
Dec
17 th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
'synchronised recovery' that global policy makers
are periodically referring to has bypassed much of
the world’s working people. If growth is improving
and unemployment is on the decline, then one should
expect that wage growth would improve. The fact that
it is falling poses a conundrum.
|
|
The
Emerging International Regime |
Dec
10th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
world capitalist crisis of reduced aggregate demand
and the protectionism of the U.S. has resulted in
a reduced export demand for world economies. Third
world countries face enlarged trade and current account
deficits, to overcome these deficits, countries like
India will have to take measures on their own level.
|
|
Neo-liberalism
and the Diffusion of Development |
Nov
19th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
cycles of ebbs and flows under capitalism result in
the behaviour of capitalists alternating between riskless
and adventurers when it comes to investments. As the
ongoing capitalist recession continues and even gets
accentuated, as finance begins to flow back increasingly
to the metropolis as is already happening, investment
and growth rate in the third world will dry up to an
even greater extent than in the metropolis. |
|
External
Commercial Borrowings: Difficult times ahead |
Oct
12th 2018, Parthapratim Pal and Ahana Bose |
|
The
rise in the short term benchmark interest rates by the
Federal Reserve of United States may lead to higher
capital outflows for India. This would result in increased
downward pressure on the rupee, and with the oil prices
rising in light of the sanctions on oil exports from
Iran, international borrowing is becoming costlier,
and will become even more so in the short to medium
term. |
|
Hype
and Facts on Free Trade |
Oct
10th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
In
the light Trump's tariffs that are frightening US corporations
and European and North American allies along with Japan
and China, a report by IMF, World Bank and WTO have
produced Reinvigorating Trade and Inclusive Growth.
While persisting on "trade reform", the report
fails to recognise the arguments about the distribution
of gains from trade. In contrast, the evidence-based
arguments presented in the UNCTAD's Trade and Development
Report 2018 report are telling. |
|
The
Real Problem with Free Trade |
Sep
11th 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even
if free trade is ultimately broadly beneficial, the
fact remains that as trade has become freer, inequality
has worsened. One major reason for this is that current
global trade rules have enabled a few large firms to
capture an ever-larger share of value-added, at a massive
cost to economies, workers, and the environment. |
|
Pakistan:
Who needs a crisis? |
Aug
29th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
As
Pakistan's new Prime Minister, Imran Khan faces the
current balance of payments, its important to look at
Pakistan’s debt history, especially in light of its
association with China's Belt and Road Initiative. With
IMF's support to Pakistan in the past, it is to be seen
how a proxy stand-off between a retreating power and
a rising one plays out. |
|
Did
Developing Countries Really Recover from the Global Crisis? |
Jul
17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
decade after the Global Financial Crisis, developing
countries still bear the scars in the form of lower
growth and lower investment rates. |
|
The
Indiscreet Aggression of the Bourgeoisie |
Jul
4th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
financial crisis and a subsequent period of recession
affecting the majority population in economies points
to the fact that neoliberal economic policy might have
lost its legitimacy. On the contrast, a change in mood
with Brexit and Trump's victory might not be subsequent
setbacks with a new aggression on part of the neoliberal
elite. Today, across the world, big business is attempting
to influence economic decision-making in ways that can
save the neoliberal project from collapse. |
|
George
Soros on the Current Conjuncture |
Jun
25th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Factors
like the U.S. sucking out finance capital from the rest
of the world; the appreciating dollar; the looming crisis
for the third world; the refugee problem for Europe
are together pushing world capitalism into a serious
crisis as put by George Soros. A Marshall plan may save
the system but the basic foundations of capitalism are
against this proposal. |
|
Has
Donald Trump Already Changed US Trade? |
Jun
19th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Donald
Trump is threatening to dismantle the current world
trading system, but in his first year US trading patterns
show strong continuity with the previous administration. |
|
Trump
Versus the Rest |
Jun
18th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Donald
Trump's protectionist stance at the G-7 summit is an
example of how disunited capitalist countries are on
a possible solution to the capitalist crisis. Because
of the position of the US economy, Trump can afford
to hold on to his protectionist policies while enlarging
the fiscal deficit. What is wrong about this strategy
is the possibility of long term repercussions, not just
for America but for the capitalist world as a whole. |
|
Shadow
Cast by the Rupee |
Jun
7th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
rupee has sharply depreciated in the recent weeks giving
reason for concern. The external events of rise in oil
prices and rate of interest in advanced economies has
led to a surge in the current account deficit and capital
outflows respectively. The success of 'the liberalization
reforms' lies in the huge capital inflows and thus,
has enhanced the periodic bouts of the rupee, hinting
to symptoms of a bubble economy. |
|
The
Gathering Storm Clouds |
May
28th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Indian Economy has all along been critically dependent
upon the inflow of speculative finance to sustain its
balance of payment. It now faces threatening prospects
of a spiral as international crude oil prices and U.S.
interest rates, that kept its import bill restricted,
are on the rise. |
|
Once
again, the Oil Price Scare |
May
22nd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
oil prices rise again, countries like India that had
benefited from relatively low prices in recent years
have to reconsider their growth and macroeconomic strategies. |
|
The
Return of the Oil Threat |
May
11th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
As
oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia and
Russia, stick to their reduced outputs and as Trump
threatens to isolate Iran with sanctions once again,
the spectre of high oil prices and the accompanying
inflation seem very real. |
|
The
Return of a Housing Bubble |
May
8th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
household balance sheets are not rid of the debt accumulated
in the years preceding the 2008 crisis, there are signs
that purchases financed with new debt are leading to
a fresh bubble in property markets. |
|
The
Collapse in Developing Country Exports |
Apr
25th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
period since 2010 has seen a collapse in developing
country exports, most of all in South-South trade. Developing
countries need to factor this into their future strategies. |
|
Trump's
Trade War |
Apr
24th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
trade sanctions on China and other protectionist measures
announced by the Trump administration will not only
not serve the cause of the U.S.' trade deficit but could
also spark off a trade war, resulting in an overall
shrinkage of world trade. |
|
The
True Face of the Global Recovery |
Apr
11th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Optimistic assessments of the synchronised recovery
across the world economy ignore the factors driving
the weak upturn that make it fragile. |
|
Doyen
of 'Dependency Theory' |
Apr
3rd 2018, Sunanda Sen |
|
Theotonio
dos Santos (1936–2018), who passed away on 27th February
in Rio de Janeiro, was a major proponent of dependecia
or dependency theory, important for those interpreting
the growing disparities between the advanced and the
developing world. Time will bear testimony to his contributions,
as a scholar, a theoretician, and an activist who spent
his life in spelling out the injustices in globalization. |
|
How
Unequal are World Incomes? |
Mar
27th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Global inequality has reduced as income growth shifts
from the Northern countries to emerging markets like
the BRICS. But this shift is quite limited and has not
benefited the bulk of people in the developing world. |
|
Market
Fever and its Aftermath |
Mar
13th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As fears of a market downturn cloud sentiment, the factors
that led up to the bull run and their implications need
to be studied and learnt from. |
|
A
Dangerous Period |
Feb
16th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Contemporary
Fascism around the world is emerging as neo-liberal
capitalism’s “gift” to mankind in the period of its
maturity, when it submerges the world economy in a crisis,
and reaches a dead-end from which there is no obvious
escape. |
|
A
Note On Estimating Income Inequality across countries
using PPP Exchange Rates |
Feb
1st 2018,
Jayati Ghosh |
|
Private banks, especially foreign ones have relied on
off-balance sheet liabilities to earn revenues and profits,
courting risk and leaving the business of banking proper
largely to the public sector banks. |
|
Rising
Incomes, Falling Wages |
Jan31st
2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Changing
the unequal economic tendencies brought out in the World
Inequality Report 2018 requires changing the politics
not just making governments more accountable to the
people, but making people realise that they are being
fooled. |
|
Making
Merry on Bitcoin |
Dec
22nd 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Bitcoin
has left the world of finance gasping. Though the total
market value of all of that cryptocurrency in circulation
is only a fraction of the value of the world's financial
assets, the rapid rise in the value of the currency
has made it the most wanted of those assets. |
|
How
China is managing capital flows – and why |
Nov
24th 2017, Jayati Ghosh |
|
China
is seeking a more influential role in the global economy,
and it hopes to achieve this through greater use of
its currency by others. |
|
Unbalanced
Global Growth |
Nov
8th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
distribution of the weak global economic recovery since
the Great Recession provides little reason for optimism
about the future. |
|
Neo-Liberal
Capitalism and its Crisis |
Oct
24th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Neo-liberal
capitalism is marked by the hegemony of international
finance capital which has many consequences, among which
is the alarming upsurge of fascism, differing markedly
from the fascism of the 1930s. |
|
Progressive
Mobilization in Europe |
Jul
19th 2017, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The G20
summit in Hamburg was an occasion for public affirmations
of the continued power of progressive ideas and calls
for action around issues that really matter, in the
form of an alternative summit, performance art demonstrations,
and marches. |
|
The
Hamburg Fiasco |
Jul
19th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
There
is no sign of any consensus coming out of the G20 on
the need for a mix of globally coordinated policies
and a fiscal push to pull the world economy out of recession.
What we have once again is a set of statements that
says everything and therefore nothing. |
|
Three
Deaths |
Jul
19th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Prabhat
Patnaik mourns the deaths of three of his close friends,
all brilliant people: Arup Mullick, Basudev Chatterji,
and Nirupam Sen, whose outstanding character and intellectual
genius will be greatly missed. |
|
Justice
in the Age of Finance |
Jul
7th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The very
limited Barclays prosecution comes in the wake of a
half-hearted investigation effort, which has thus far
completely let off all those who took the world economy
to the verge of a crisis akin to the Great Depression.
It is not clear if anything will finally come out of
even this case, which is aimed at merely teaching a
lesson to those who hurt a bunch of financial investors
by violating insider rules. |
|
The
Rights of the Child and the G20 Summit |
Jul
3rd 2017, Sir Richard Jolly |
|
Fresh
research from UNICEF shows that the number of children
in poverty, in rich countries has increased as a result
of austerity policies. An average of one in five children
in 41 high income countries lives in poverty. Children
and their rights do not even seem to feature in the
G20 manifesto, even as it stresses the ending of austerity
policies and encouraging public budgets that promote
development and poverty eradication. |
|
One
Belt, One Road, One Grand Design? |
Jun
10th 2017, Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
Trump adopts protectionist measures, President Xi Jingpings’
project "One Belt One Road" is an overwhelmingly
ambitious plan to restore faith in globalization. Aiming
to perfectly connect 60 countries to China, it is expected
to face huge political and financial difficulties. Although
it points to a new kind of Chinese imperialism, such
a world of competitive superpowers might open new opportunities
for the developing nations. |
|
Where
will Global Demand come from? |
May
23rd 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
the US reduces its role as engine of global demand,
there are no signs that other economies will be able
to pick up the slack. The mercantilist approach exemplified
by Germany is creating net global slowdown. |
|
World
Capitalist Crisis getting Accentuated |
May
22nd 2017, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
After
a brief illusion of recovery in the U.S., the world
economic crisis is getting accentuated. Trump administration
would rather increase its fiscal deficit, if at all
it does, through tax cuts than state expenditure under
the hegemony of finance capital. This might further
suppress consumption expenditure, already constricted
by falling global wages. Such policies, paired with
hostile protectionism, would make correcting over-production
and hence overcoming world crisis, almost impossible. |
|
The
Growth of Digital Payments |
Jan
3rd 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
the context of the failed demonetisation and continued
shortage of currency, the government continues to push
cashless digital payments. What are the implications
for Indians? |
|
Age
of Uncertainty |
Dec
23rd 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
With
the US Federal Reserve deciding to exit the era of low
interest rates even when growth in the rest of the world
economy falters or remains sluggish, economic uncertainty
intensifies. |
|
Can
Developing Asia Hold its Ground? |
Dec
6 th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Capital
flight from Asia points to investor concerns about both
political processes in the big Asian developing economies
and medium-term economic prospects. |
|
Colombia:
The search for elusive peace |
Nov
9th 2016, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Despite
the peace agreement was rejected by the referendum,
the peace process in Colombia is not over and there
is hope that the agreement can be tweaked and then implemented. |
|
How
Successful is China's Economic Rebalancing? |
Nov
8th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
China’s
rapid economic growth has slowed recently - but does
this reflect the desired rebalancing of the economy
away from investment to consumption and wage-led growth? |
|
The
Growing Resistance against Globalization |
Oct
21st 2016, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
All
across the world the tide is beginning to turn against
globalization through the growing resistance of the
working people and remarkably, nowhere it is being led
by the Left. |
|
Globalization
and the World’s Working People |
Jul
11th 2016, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Contrary
to the impression that Globalization would benefit all,
it has actually worsened the conditions of the broad
mass of the working people in both parts of the world. |
|
After
Brexit |
Jul
6th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Whatever
the long term implications of Brexit are, it could,
in the short run, disrupt world trade, and worsen the
depressed conditions confronting the current world economy. |
|
The
Global "New Normal" is Not New- But it is still
a real concern |
Jun
21st 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Global
growth rates of the last five years are similar to those
in the past, but now they are accompanied by unprecedented
monetary expansion that seems to have little impact. |
|
And
Now, Price Deflation in India and China? |
May
31st 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
it was presumed the developing world, especially the
more prominent emerging markets, were less prone to
price deflation, data from China and India show trends
of declining producer prices. |
|
Societal
Involution in the North |
May
16th 2016, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Recent
social and political trends in the US and in parts of
Europe point to the regressive tendencies that seek
to recreate a past that seems less complicated, but
manages to intensify unhappiness. |
|
No
Clue to the Future |
Apr
27th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
failure of the G20 countries to agree to an action plan
not just to ensure recovery but prevent a second slump,
may lead to countries adopting beggar-thy-neighbour
policies. |
|
How
much has Global Economic Power Really Shifted? |
Mar
31st 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
This
article analyses the significance of shift in global
economic power from the North to the South and what
exactly it means for the countries in developing Asia
like India. |
|
Banks
and the New Asian Tigers |
Mar
30th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Substantial
accumulation of bad debt in the domestic banking systems
of India and China seems to be proving too heavy a burden
to bear when the good times are disappearing. |
|
The
IMF in Pakistan |
Feb
18th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
While
presenting a positive picture of the Pakistan economy
the IMF conceals the fact that Pakistan's role as an
on-and-off strategic partner of the US has undermined
its ability to find an independently funded growth strategy. |
|
A
Different Oil Shock |
Feb
4th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Given
the magnitude of the oil price fall, the world economy
seems set for a deflationary crisis rather than expansionary
deflation. |
|
Capital
Bleeds from Emerging Asia |
Feb
2nd 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Capital
flight, in 2015, from the emerging markets, especially
those in Asia, was much worse than has been previously
estimated. This augurs ill for the coming year. |
|
The
Continuing Debt Problem in Asia |
Dec
8 th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Private
household debt is going to be a major concern for many
Asian economies as excessive household debt and falling
realty prices combine to create a potentially potent
mix. |
|
Understanding
"Secular Stagnation" |
Oct
15th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
This
article discusses the issue of the "new normal"
of low or stagnating output growth that the analysts
and reports of international organisations are talking
about. |
|
No
Case for Complacence |
Oct
5th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
yuan depreciation can trigger a chain of events that
would convert the creeping world recession into another
full-fledged crisis and India cannot be immune from
contagion. |
|
Europe's
Refugee "Crisis" |
Sep
30th 2015, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Asylum
seekers do not have an easy time anywhere, but the richer
countries have without question been meaner, more oppressive
and more restrictive in their dealings with them. |
|
The
Retreat of the Emerging Markets |
Sep
16th 2015, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
process of export-led growth strategy that led to declining
wage share and increasing inequalities and environmental
problems has ultimately proved to be unsustainable. |
|
The
Devaluation of the Yuan |
Sep
8th 2015, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
With
the depreciation in the Chinese yuan, the world economy
in all probability is going to face a deflation and
a "debt-deflation" syndrome. |
|
"De-Linking"
and Domestic Reaction |
Sep
7th 2015, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
author here highlights the fact that it is not de-linking
from globalization but globalization itself that conduces
to a strengthening of reactionary forces. |
|
Emerging
Markets in Retreat |
Aug
25th 2015, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
From
Brazil to Thailand, experiences of the emerging markets
confirm that relying only on net export growth or debt-driven
bubbles for rapid growth cannot work for very long. |
|
China's
RenMinBi Strategys |
Aug
18th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
sudden depreciation of Chinese currency, that has impacted
global markets, may be an attempt to revive export growth
and provide stimulus to growth to the flagging economy. |
|
China's
Troubled Stock Markets |
Aug
4th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
boom bust cycles in China's stock markets question the
government's view that there is much to be gained from
deregulating them. |
|
China's
Stock Market Collapse |
Jul
22nd 2015, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
negative impacts of China's stock market collapse, falling
exports and the explosion of debt are not just felt
within the economy but across the globe. |
|
Looking
Back at Debt Relief for the Germans |
Jul
21st 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
the current Eurozone attitudes towards Greece, it is
often forgotten that Germany was the major beneficiary
of debt write-offs in the 20th century when Greece was
its creditor. |
|
A
Greek Tragedy that could have been Avoided |
Jul
8th 2015, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
EU's insistence on grinding austerity measures and stubborn
resistance to even consider the option of debt restructuring
forced the Greek people into greater hardship. |
|
The
Spectre of the Thirties |
Jul
7th 2015, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
world economy today is reminiscent of the 1930s where
competitive easing of monetary policy is not boosting
aggregate demand and fiscal policy is barred by finance
capital. |
|
Calling
a Halt to the Pseudo "Trade Deals" |
Jun
24th 2015, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
TPP or the TTIP deal is not really about trade; they
both are about strengthening the rules that favour capital
over not just workers but over citizens in general. |
|
Economic
Forecasts and Reality: Should we believe the World Bank? |
Jun
23rd 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
World Bank’s latest projections for GDP growth are pessimistic,
especially for developing countries. But given its poor
track record, how far they are reliable is doubtful.
|
|
When
Will the Next Financial Crisis Start? |
Jun
15th 2015, T.
Sabri Öncü |
|
The
global financial crisis that started in 2007 has never
ended and now there are warnings of a looming market
liquidity crisis, but when this will hit remains to
be seen. |
|
The
Declining World Foreign Exchange Reserves |
Jun
12th 2015, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
author in this article explains the reason behind the
sudden decline in the world foreign exchange reserves. |
|
Looking
to the US |
Jun
9th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
a curious turn of events, the US economy rather than
the Asian emerging markets is now expected to lead a
global recovery. But the reason and implications are
not so clear. |
|
The
Bursting of China's Housing Bubble |
Apr
28th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
party is over in China's real estate markets, but the
policy makers are trying to revive it through financial
deregulation and monetary easing that is unlikely to
work. |
|
China
and India in the World Economy |
Mar
31st 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
there is excitement about the possibility of India overtaking
China in terms of GDP growth, it is useful to remind
ourselves of the relative positions of the two economies.
|
|
Ever
Expanding Debt Bubbles in China and India |
Mar
3rd 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even
though China appears to have a much higher level of
debt- GDP ratio, India's debt situation with much lower
levels of corporate debt may prove to be more problematic. |
|
Oil:
The big 100 per cent story |
Feb
2nd 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
a puzzling development, some financial markets registered
a decline in the wake of the recent dramatic fall in
oil prices. So, is the oil price fall not all good news? |
|
Asian
Banks in Trouble |
Jan
2nd 2015,, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Emerging
market economies in Asia are confronted with signs of
bank fragility owing to overexposure to the private
sector, whose mounting external debt compounds the problem. |
|
Debt
in Asian Vulnerability |
Nov
25th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Amidst
stock market euphoria, the growing international debt
exposure of certain Asian countries, particularly Hong
Kong, China and India, is a matter of major concern.
|
|
The
Gathering Clouds of Recession |
Nov
24th 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
world capitalist economy's slide into a new downturn
is likely to be a harbinger of major economic and political
changes within the structure of world capitalism. |
|
The
Difficult Art of Economic Diversification |
Nov
11th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Indonesia
provides a stark example of an economy that diversified
its pattern of trade and domestic production, only to
relapse back into a dependence on primary exports.
|
|
The
Cotton Conundrum |
Oct
24th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
China's
decision to liquidate its large raw cotton stocks accumulated
as part of a policy of supporting domestic production
is hurting the world's cotton exporters.
|
|
Oil:
Hope of respite? |
Aug
22nd 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Despite
a downward trend in global oil prices, in the long run
India may have to find alternative routes to finance
the oil import bill as the trend may be short-lived.
|
|
BRICS
Gains Currency in Brazil |
Jul
25th 2014, Biswajit
Dhar |
|
BRICS
is poised to make a mark in the global economic governance,
if the NDB and the CRA turn into credible financial
institutions – as counterparts of the existing structure.
|
|
The
Rise and Fall of the Global South |
Jul
21st 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
south that was supposedly rising is now witnessing a
fall and this can be prevented only if the domestic
market is expanded through egalitarian measures of redistribution.
|
|
India
as a Manufacturing Hub |
Jul
8th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
strategy of the new government to revive India's manufacturing
sector by exploiting global value chains is well known,
but how much success this will bring is doubtful.
|
|
Chinese
Dreams |
Jun
11th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
pursuit of the Chinese dream may become a nightmare
for the majority as it involves reduction of expenditures
on food subsidies and other welfare measures.
|
|
No
Help from Abroad |
Jun
4th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
author here shows that the OECD's optimistic growth
projections are questionable and the global environment
confronting the new government of India is not favourable.
|
|
The
Threat from Big Pharma |
May
15th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
recent global trend of M&A in the pharmaceutical
industry poses a danger for prices of life savings drugs,
especially in India, with 100% FDI approval from the
government.
|
|
How
Vulnerable are Emerging Economies? |
Mar
6th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Developing
countries face a complex set of challenges in the changing
global scenario that does not seem to be factored into
economic policies in most countries. |
|
Cheap
Labour and Competitiveness |
Feb
7th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
author analyses the merits of the argument of China
having reached the Lewis turning point, which is predicted
to make way for new suppliers in the world market.
|
|
Search
for Recovery |
Feb
7th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Although
every significant country of the world is still in the
midst of growth deceleration, forecasters confidently
hold out hopes of a recovery.
|
|
The
Geography of Global Manufacturing |
Jan
27th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
US's cries on the looming threat from China seem to
be just propaganda to pre-empt any challenge to existing
imperial power.
|
|
The
Employment Challenge |
Jan
22nd 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
recent years, even in those developing countries in
Asia where productivity gains have been significant
and growth high, increasing employment has been a huge
challenge. |
|
Shutting
Out the Progressive Agenda |
Oct
17th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
US shut down reflects the extent to which finance capital
controlled Right is ready to go to prevent any progressive
social sector agenda even in the post crisis scenario.
|
|
Those
Chinese fears |
Oct
1st 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
speculation of a looming banking crisis in China is
not without basis, the fact that its big banks are publicly
owned and serve the goals set by the state is ignored.
|
|
How
Should We Deal with the Current Account Deficit? |
Sep
17th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Although
the Rupee has stabilised for the moment, the resolution
of India's external crisis is far from sight as the
basic source of the problem still remains unaddressed.
|
|
Perils
of Borrowed Prosperity |
Aug
22nd 2013, Prasenjit
Bose |
|
There
are structural aspects underlying India's external deficit
and financing this by attracting more capital inflows
will imply growing external indebtedness for the economy.
|
|
The
Sensex and the Economy |
Apr
8th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
central bank's cheap credit and easy money policies
have helped the Indian stock market to remain reasonably
positioned even when the economy sinks.
|
|
The
Dangers of Fiscal Austerity |
Mar
4th 2013, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Despite
fiscal austerity measures proving to be counterproductive
in dealing with economic contractions worldwide, the
Indian government is poised to implement similar policies.
|
|
How
Not to Urbanise |
Feb
6th 2013, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Although
recent urbanisation in China is associated with several
positive features, it has also generated problems that
are making this process unsustainable.
|
|
Is
China Changing? |
Feb
1st 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
As
evidence suggests, the Chinese economy is experiencing
a reversal of the trajectory of high growth driven by
excess investment; there is a shift towards consumption
now.
|
|
India's
Growth Story: A comparative view |
Dec
11th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Indian
growth episode was not based on the sorts of stimuli
and methods of financing that have characterised the
growth of some other more successful Asian economies.
|
|
India,
China and the World |
Oct
19th 2012, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Those
who defend neo-liberal policies in India by citing China's
export and growth successes, as if India can simply
replicate China's experience, are completely wrong.
|
|
Food
World |
Oct
17th 2012, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
globalised fast-food culture encourages a wasteful and
unhealthy pattern of food consumption that is detrimental
to the health of people in developing and developed
countries.
|
|
The
Insensitive Sensex |
Oct
15th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
growth slows down in India, the only index faring well
is the Sensex. The short term speculators armed with
central bank's cheap credit and easy money policies
have helped it remain high though volatile.
|
|
The
Coming Food Crisis |
Sep
12th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Even
as the global recessionary trend continues, the world
is waking up to the prospect of another food crisis
resulting in a period of political turmoil with unexpected
consequences. This will have an adverse affect on poor
developing country exporters that have not yet recovered
fully from earlier crises.
|
|
How
Wage-led Growth has Powered Argentina's Economic Recovery |
Aug
31st 2012, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
manner in which Argentina has been able to generate
more genuinely inclusive growth, through the promotion
of productive and fairly remunerated employment and
a different approach to social protection, sets a bright
example of alternative strategy. This could be a learning
lesson for all other countries trying to come out of
the current recessionary trends.
|
|
Ill
Winds from Europe |
Aug
8th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
crisis intensifies in Europe and threatens to trigger
a second global downturn in five years. This time, Asian
countries, which weathered the last crisis well, seem
less resilient. In fact, the evidence points to many
routes to the spread of contagion to Asia. |
|
ILO
Leadership Election Must Not be Another Charade |
May
21st 2012, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
ILO is uniquely positioned among the multilateral organisations
to play an extremely significant role in forging a global
consensus around viable alternative economic trajectories.
The election of a developing country candidate as its
new Director-General would have important consequences
that go beyond symbolism.
|
|
Time
to End the Madness |
May
16th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Irrational
insistence on fiscal conservatism has led to widespread
growth slowdown not only in the European countries,
but also in emerging economies like China and India.
The political backlash in major eurozone economies rekindles
hope that governments embracing growth stunting fiscal
tightening would soon switch back to sound economic
policy-making.
|
|
Using
the Potential of BRICS Financial Co-operation |
Apr
9th 2012, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
emergence of BRICS as a global economic entity offers
a scope for democratising the entire process of South-South
Co-operation that till date has been mainly corporate
led. The commonalities of the challenges faced by the
individual members of BRICS can act as a platform for
developing a more progressive developmental trajectory
for the member countries, and all emerging economies
at large.
|
|
Post-Crisis
Reform: A lost opportunity? |
Apr
3rd 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
its recently released annual report, the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas makes a case for breaking up banks considered
too big to fail. But the failure to do that is only
one possible way in which the opportunity provided by
the crisis to reform and regulate finance has been lost. |
|
The
Chinese Way |
Feb
24th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Although
the use of the banking system as a development instrumentality
in China has been useful, there are a host of new problems
that has cropped up. This would possibly encourage the
government to retrace its steps and strike a new path.
|
|
Can
Asia Decouple? |
Feb
22nd 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
the global economic situation worsens, there are renewed
concerns about the fate of developing countries. The
authors consider recent trends in global GDP growth,
investment and trade, and argue that the expectations
of Asia being able to blithely withstand the latest
round of economic crisis are not just over-optimistic
but probably wrong. |
|
We
Need a New World Order at the World Bank |
Feb
18th 2012, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
For
long, the IMF and the World Bank have been zealously
controlled by the USA and the European Countries on
flimsy grounds. It is high time such practices are changed
taking into account the new world realities.
|
|
The
Role China Plays |
Jan
25th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
China,
which is being touted as the biggest challenger to US
economic supremacy, is witnessing slowdown in its growth
rates. However, such a slowdown could prove to be bad
news for the US economy as well, because China also
happens to be the biggest market for all US MNCs.
|
|
Year
of Centenaries |
Jan
12th 2012, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
100
years ago when Gustav Mahler composed his 9th Symphony,
it reflected the troubling times he lived in. It was
music for uncertain times, even though it contains within
it certainties of different kinds. 100 years later,
there is almost a sense of déjà vu with
Europe, and indeed the whole world, now faced with another
period of political and economic volatility.
|
|
Prospects
for the World Economy in 2012 |
Dec
27th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
2011
revealed that the much vaunted economic recovery after
the Great Recession was not inherently sustainable,
as the recent problems of global capitalism, including
those associated with excessive debt build-up, were
reflected in new areas and caused economic slowdown
across the world. Against the backdrop of economic trends
in 2011, this article assesses the prospects for the
world economy in 2012.
|
|
European
Banks and Asia |
Nov
17th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
European
banks are being forced to take a haircut to deal with
the region's crisis. Given their greater role in total
international funding and the significant exposure of
Asian financial systems to global capital, this raises
concerns about the likely impact that the European banking
crisis would have on Asia.
|
|
Employment
Generation as an Economic Strategy for Uncertain Times |
Nov
14th 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
This
is the acceptance speech made by the author at the award
function of the ILO Decent Work Research Prize, 2010.
Discussing the growing pressures in the current global
scenario, she argues for a shift in macroeconomic strategy
towards domestic wage- and employment-led growth as
a means to sustainable growth, as well as an end in
itself.
|
|
The
G20 and Employment Outlook |
Oct
12th 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
A
recent ILO document on employment and labour market
outlook in G20 countries points towards an economic
crisis of major magnitude in most of them. According
to the report, the two key challenges for global policy
makers at present are to ensure better utilisation of
labour resources and better quality jobs.
|
|
What
World Leaders Need to Do Urgently (but are not) |
Oct
4th 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Global
leaders' efforts to control the prevailing anarchy and
enable recovery in their economies end up having the
opposite effect, because the direction of their macroeconomic
policies is all wrong and mobile finance capital is
still largely unregulated. Here are five basic steps
that world leaders need to take.
|
|
Shifting
Havens for Capital |
Sep
30th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
In
parallel with the sudden strengthening of the dollar
recently, the value of a whole host of alternative assets
has fallen. In the process developing countries that
have been the targets of financial investors and those
dependent on commodity exports have become particularly
vulnerable.
|
|
The
Persistent Global Crisis |
Sep22nd
2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
World
financial leaders gather at Washington for the annual
meetings of the World Bank and the IMF amid fears of
another global recession. But the perspective and will
needed to address the problem appear to be absent. |
|
The
Global Recession and India |
Aug
29th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
With
global growth slowing and financial markets experiencing
a downturn, the fallout for India is a matter of concern.
The channels through which these effects could be transmitted
are more in number than conventionally recognised. |
|
Global
Disorder and the Indian Economy |
Aug
25th 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
Indian economy is showing the classic signs of a bubble
economy and any small signs of external vulnerability
and economic fragility can cause it to burst. Crucial
possible downsides of the current round of global uncertainty
for India and other emerging markets include the lack
of import demand growth in the US and the EU, renewed
inflows of mobile capital, etc.
|
|
Is
China next? |
Aug
10th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
While
some observers expect a collapse of the property boom
in China and a resultant crisis, this seems unlikely
to happen because the state, still a major player in
China, is responding to the danger in more ways than
one.
|
|
America's
Debt-ceiling Crisis |
Aug
4th 2011, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
compromise between Obama and the Republicans to end
the US debt-ceiling crisis has done great damage in
terms of a sharp regression in income distribution and
a remarkable shift to the Right in the US, as well as
an aggravation of the recession in the world economy.
|
|
Global
Oil Prices |
Jul
13th 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Recent
price changes in global oil markets are increasingly
affected by forces that have more to do with financial
speculation and expectations than with current movements
in demand and supply. In the current oil price surge,
the real gainers are the financial speculators in oil
futures markets and the big oil companies.
|
|
Changing
Guard at the IMF? |
Jul
6th 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
change of guard at the IMF would not make a difference
as long as there is no significant change in the Fund's
approach to economic policies. Despite the experience
of continually getting it wrong in so many countries
over so many decades, the Fund is still persisting in
imposing the blatantly counterproductive strategy of
fiscal austerity everywhere.
|
|
Food
Price Transmission in South Asia |
Jun
14th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
recent increase in global food prices has once again
set off alarm signals in developing countries, especially
in South Asia, where food inflation has been a major
problem for some years now. Evidence from South Asian
countries corroborates the fact that domestic factors
do play a role in the international transmission; while
rising global prices put upward pressure on domestic
prices in a much rapid manner, its downward movements
are less rapidly or effectively transmitted and often
do not have any such impact. |
|
Revisiting
Capital Flows |
|
May
4th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
a recent move the IMF surprised many by revising its
position on the use of capital controls and making a
case for them in special circumstances. It has followed
this up with an analysis of capital flows to developing
countries, which also explains its partial rethink on
the use of capital controls by developing countries. |
|
The
Transmission of Global Food Prices |
Mar
22nd 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Global
food prices are spiking once again, creating fears of
a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis.
Given that recent domestic food price changes in different
Asian countries point to a broader trend whereby they
have been strongly related to international price changes,
this is a matter of extreme concern. |
|
Disarray
in the Global Economy |
Oct
20th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
injection of cheap money at home to invest in emerging
markets for profit by the US Federal Reserve, and its
pressure on emerging market economies to allow their
exchange rates to appreciate, in the hope that it would
expand US exports and reduce its imports and facilitate
a recovery, are a sure recipe for conflict. |
|
Fiscal
Policy and Global Growth |
Jul
27th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Across
the world governments are debating whether it is time
to exit from their fiscal response to the global crisis
and return to austerity and fiscal consolidation. This
may be premature, since the question whether there was
indeed such a generalized and adequate fiscal response
that triggered a recovery remains unanswered. |
|
Fiscal
Discipline and All That |
Jul
27th 2010, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
There
was a sudden resurgence in Keynesian ideas everywhere
when the global financial crisis broke in September
2008. But, equally suddenly, financial markets have
once again turned back on state intervention and policy
makers are giving in to demands for massive cuts in
public expenditure that would require enormous sacrifices
from their populations. |
|
Financial Euphoria and Aftershock |
Feb
24th 2010, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
John
Kenneth Galbraith's analysis of the capitalist economy
in the delightfully written tract ''A Short History
of Financial Euphoria'' remains as relevant today as
it was then. However, unlike what Galbraith offers,
the solution to capitalism's proneness to recurrent
bouts of speculation has to go beyond capitalist markets
and profit motivation. |
|
The
Crisis and Employment in Asia |
Feb
15th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Despite
scepticism about its sustainability, evidence shows
that the crisis of 2008-09 has bottomed out and a recovery
is likely, driven by the fiscal stimulus offered by
governments across the world. But figures from the ILO
indicate that the impact of the stimulus on employment
appears uneven, with export dependent economies in Asia
too adversely affected. |
|
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