What
does "Global Growth" actually Mean? |
Dec
10th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Looking at aggregate global economic growth
obscures important changes in the world
economy, especially if these are analysed
using actual market exchange rates. The
recent period has seen a reassertion of
the western countries as major drivers
of global growth, and a relative decline
of Asia.
|
|
Neoliberalism
and before |
Dec
9th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Karl
Marx had once said that all criticism
must begin with the criticism of religion.
Paraphrasing Marx one can say in the current
economic context that all criticism must
begin with the criticism of the GDP.
|
|
Defining
Socialism |
Dec
2nd 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Hearing
a petition on November 22 to remove the
term "socialism" from the Preamble
of the Indian Constitution, the Chief
Justice of India made two significant
observations.
|
|
Fiscal
Transfers to Capitalists |
Nov
25th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
It
is common for governments these days to
provide fiscal transfers to capitalists,
whether through reduced corporate tax
rates, or by providing direct cash subsidies,
to encourage greater investment by them
and thereby stimulate the economy.
|
|
West
Africa's Resistance against Imperialism |
Sep
30th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
West
Africa, which had been largely under French
colonial rule, never saw decolonisation
of the sort that India did.
|
|
Africa-China
Economic Relations: The next phase |
Sep
17th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The FOCAC summit suggests that China is
entering a new phase of economic relations
with Africa, with more targeted investments
reflecting changed global realities.
|
|
The
NPF Programme goes beyond Neo-liberalism |
Jul
8th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
For
the French elections which Emmanuel Macron
has called in the wake of the impressive
showing by the Far-Right in the European
parliamentary polls, four parties on the
Left, the Communists, the Socialists,
the Greens, and France Unbowed (of Jean-Luc
Melenchon), have come together to form
a New Popular Front to take on the fascist
challenge of Marine Le Pen.
|
|
Global
Diffusion of Production and the Concept of
Imperialism |
Jun
17th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There
has been a significant diffusion of production
occurring in the world economy. Many call
this phenomenon a shift from a US-led
world economy to a "multipolar world
economy", but no matter what one
thinks of this description, the fact of
diffusion is indubitable.
|
|
The
Crisis of Liberalism |
May
13th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Each
strand of political praxis is informed
by a political philosophy which analyses
the world around us, especially, in modern
times, its economic characteristics. On
the basis of this analysis, the particular
political philosophy sets out the objectives
which have to be struggled for, and the
political praxis informed by it carries
out this struggle.
|
|
Banga
Hype at the Springs |
May
2nd 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Less
than a year back, a former chief executive
of Mastercard, Ajay Banga, was in a surprise
move picked to head the World Bank. Putting
a Wall Street player addicted to profits
in charge of a development institution
claiming to help lift poor countries out
of their underdevelopment seemed incongruous.
|
|
Fetishising
the Growth Rate of GDP |
Apr
22nd 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
John
Stuart Mill was among the foremost liberal
thinkers of modern times who wrote extensively
on economics and philosophy. Though under
the influence of his wife Harriet Taylor
Mill, he came closer towards socialism
late in his life, it was a kind of cooperative
socialism that attracted him; he continues
to be regarded primarily as a pre-eminent
liberal thinker.
|
|
Once
More on Poverty Figures of India |
Mar
25th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
other day the Chief Executive Officer
of Niti Ayog made a fantastic claim, that
the poverty ratio in India had fallen
below 5 percent according to the 2022-23
consumption expenditure survey data.
|
|
On
the Fuss over US Interest Rates |
Mar
19th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Discussions on macroeconomic policy in
the US and other high income countries
tend to focus overwhelmingly on central
banks' interest rate adjustments, with
little clarity on what impact those changes
have domestically.
|
|
The
Mystery about Investment |
Feb
6th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A decade of decline and stagnation in
investment rates is at odds with the official
narrative of a resurgent and buoyant economy,
which is held back by the demand effects
of rising inequality.
|
|
What
the GDP Hides |
Feb
5th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There
are well-known problems associated with
the concept of gross domestic product
as well as with its measurement. The inclusion
of the service sector within GDP is something
that Adam Smith would have objected to
on the conceptual grounds that those employed
in this sector constituted "unproductive
workers";
|
|
World
Economy: Out of control |
Jan
23rd 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As fears of inflation recede, the prospect
of a medium-term slowdown in the global
economy looms. The problem is that global
leaders have lost control of both macroeconomic
policy and the economy.
|
|
What
"Dollarisation" Entails |
Jan
8th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Argentina's
new president Javier Milei proposes to
use US dollars as the currency of his
country, while abolishing its central
bank altogether. What is involved in this
proposal is not just maintaining a fixed
exchange rate between the dollar and the
domestic currency, but an abolition of
the domestic currency altogether.
|
|
Pitfalls
of Export-Led Growth |
Dec
11th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
wisdom of pursuing a strategy of export-led
growth has been discussed among development
economists for at least half a century,
ever since the so-called East Asian ''miracle''
started to be contrasted with the comparatively
sluggish growth experience of countries
like India that were pursuing, in the
World Bank's language, an ''inward looking''
development strategy.
|
|
India's
BoP Story |
Oct
3rd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Despite recording chronic and rising trade
deficits, India's balance of payments
looks stable and resilient. But that stability
may prove to be the source of new problems.
|
|
The
Anatomy of Inflation |
Sep
5th2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A bad monsoon and possible decline in
agricultural production threaten to accelerate
ongoing inflation in India, particularly
because of increased speculation in the
market for food.
|
|
When
can there be a Fall in the Rate of Profit? |
Jul
24th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Several
major economists have put forward theories
predicting a falling tendency of the rate
of profit under capitalism; Marx had seen
in this fact an awareness on their part
of the essential transitoriness of the
capitalist system.
|
|
Exchange
Rate Depreciation and Real Wages |
May
29th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Most
people, including even trained economists,
fail to appreciate the fact that an exchange
rate depreciation, if it is to work in
reducing the trade deficit in a capitalist
economy, must necessarily hurt the working
class by lowering the real wage rate.
|
|
OPEC+
and Capitalism's Fight against Inflation |
Apr
17th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Except
in war-time, capitalism invariably seeks
to control inflation by creating a recession;
and this is so even when the inflation
has been caused by an autonomous increase
in capitalists' profit-margins which are
downward inflexible and hence would not
be reduced by a recession.
|
|
Bad
Debt and Public Ownership |
Jan
27th 2023, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The semi-annual Financial Stability Report
from India's central bank signals that
India's banking system, especially the
public banking system, has put behind
it the stress from disturbingly high non-performing
or bad loans on its books.
|
|
India'
Remittance Lifeline |
Jan
24th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While the resilience of inwards remittance
inflows during the pandemic is a source
of comfort for India balance of payments,
the sharp shift in the share of different
sources in 2020-21 is a cause for concern.
|
|
How
not to Deal with a Debt Crisis |
Jan
18th 2023, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Jayati Ghosh warns against historically
disastrous approaches to the sovereign-debt
crisis hitting low- and middle-income
countries.
|
|
Storm
Clouds over India’s Balance of Payments |
Jan
9th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
India's current account deficit for the
second quarter (July-September) of 2022-23
has reached a massive $36.4 billion which
is 4.4 per cent of the gross domestic
product, higher than at any time in the
last nine years.
|
|
India's
Creeping Industrial Stagnation |
Dec
26th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There has been much discussion in public
about the index of industrial production
for October 2022 being 4 per cent lower
than the index for October 2021; and quite
rightly so, since no obvious explanations
like a Covid-induced lockdown or even
its residual lingering effects can be
adduced to explain this fall.
|
|
On
Income and Wealth Inequality |
Dec
19th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The fact that income and wealth inequalities
have increased quite dramatically under
the neo-liberal regime is beyond dispute.
The empirical work by Piketty’s team bears
out the increase in income inequality.
They use income tax data to infer about
the share of the top 1 per cent of the
population of a country in its national
income.
|
|
India's
Foreign Trade during the Ukraine War |
Dec
13th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Ukraine War and rising global prices
of fuel have had major effects on the
external trade of many developing countries.
But how much of India's poor trade performance
and growing trade deficit since January
2022 can be attributed to such factors?.
|
|
The
Working Class under Neo-Liberalism |
Dec
12th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
A Neo-liberal regime entails a spontaneous
change in the balance of class power against
the working class everywhere. This happens
for a number of reasons. First, since
capital becomes globally mobile while
labour is not, such globally mobile capital
gets an opportunity to pit the working
class of one country against that of another.
|
|
The
Monetary Policy fallout for Developing Countrie |
Nov
15th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Coping with the adverse fallout of tighter
monetary policy in the advanced economies
will require developing country governments
to shift from openness that increases
their own vulnerability to a more creative
and flexible approach that provides greater
policy autonomy.
|
|
Economics
and Dishonesty |
Nov
14th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Economics is a subject where the ruling
classes are forever trying to promote
ideologically-motivated explanations in
lieu of scientific ones. These explanations
of course can be, and have been, fitted
into an integrated totality of an alternative
non-scientific theoretical structure that
Marx had called "vulgar economy"
as distinct from classical political economy.
|
|
The
Continuing Tax Gift to Big Indian Companies |
Oct
4th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Indian tax system is heavily weighted
in favour of large corporations, and has
become even more so in recent times.
|
|
First
Quarter GDP Estimates for 2022-23 |
Sep
12th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The estimates of Gross Domestic Product
for the April-June quarter released by
the government on August 31 paint a dismal
picture of the Indian economy. Since the
GDP in real terms (at 2011-12 prices)
shows an increase of 13.5 per cent over
the first quarter GDP a year ago, and
since 13.5 per cent appears an impressive
figure, official spokespersons have been
putting a cheerful gloss over it.
|
|
On
Loan apps and Crypto Criminals |
Aug
31st 2022, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
India's enforcement directorate, still
preoccupied with unearthing corruption
and money laundering among opposition
politicians, has decided to turn its attention
to those involved in the crypto business
in the country as well.
|
|
Capital
Flight from Emerging Markets |
Jul
26th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The recent exit of portfolio capital from
emerging markets reveals the vulnerability
built up over the years when excess liquidity
originating in the developed countries
spilt over into global markets.
|
|
Scandinavia
and Imperialism |
Jul
18th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There are many misconceptions about Scandinavian
capitalism. A very common one is the belief
that since the Scandinavian countries
developed vigorous capitalist economies,
without ever having acquired any colonies
of their own, they constitute a clear
refutation of the claim that capitalist
development necessarily requires imperialism.
|
|
Are
Global Commodity Prices Responsible for the
Current Crises in Emerging Markets |
Jul
12th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Food and fuel price increases have wreaked
a lot of damage and generated inflationary
pressures in many economies. However,
the current debt problems of so many developing
countries cannot be blamed on these higher
prices.
|
|
"Heads
I Win, Tails You Lose" |
Jun
20th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The craftiness of imperialism is boundless.
In several countries of the world at present
there are neo-fascist governments, propped
up by their respective big bourgeoisies
(all aligned to globalized capital), and
implementing neo-liberal policies with
their characteristic ruthlessness; in
many other countries there are neo-fascist
outfits attempting to get into power by
promising to their big bourgeois patrons
that they would do the same if in power.
|
|
Neo-Liberalism
and Anti-Inflationary Policy |
Jun
6th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Central banks all over the capitalist
world are raising, or are about to raise,
interest rates as a means of countering
the currently rampant inflation, which
is certain to push a world economy that
is barely recovering from the effect of
the pandemic, back towards stagnation
and greater unemployment.
|
|
Who
Controls Renewable Energy Technology? |
May
17th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The concentration of technology and tacit
knowledge related to renewable energy
can emerge as an additional constraint
to its wider adoption in many low and
middle income countries.
|
|
The
Inhumanity of Capitalism |
May
16th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
For over two years now, the world has
been facing a pandemic the like of which
has not been seen for a century, and which
has already taken 15 million lives according
to the WHO, without being anywhere near
an end.
|
|
Fiddling
While India's Workers Burn |
May
11th 2022, Jayati Ghosh |
|
More frequent and intense heat waves are
poised to become bigger killers in the
Indian subcontinent than the ongoing COVID-19
pandemic. But the government is essentially
leaving people to fend for themselves
in a foreseeable tragedy, and envisages
continued investment in fossil fuels for
decades to come.
|
|
Limits
of a High Interest Rate Policy as Initiated
in India |
May
9th 2022, Sunanda Sen |
|
The announcement, on May 4, for a 40 bp
raise in the policy Repo rate along with
a 50 basis point rise in the cash-reserve
ratio by the Reserve Bank of India is
claimed officially as a measure to put
a rein to current inflation, currently
fuelled by the rising food prices rising
at 7.68%, oil and fats at 18.79% and vegetables
at 11.64% over the same month.
|
|
So
what’s the Actual Rate of Inflation? |
Mar
22nd 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The inflation rates according to the Wholesale
Price Index and the Consumer Price Index
have diverged substantially in the recent
past. In addition to weighting differences,
this could reflect underlying macroeconomic
changes in the Indian economy.
|
|
US
Inflation and India's Economic Recovery |
Dec
20th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Accelerating inflation in the US economy
is going to cast a further shadow on India's
economic recovery which is already threatened
by the persistently depressed levels of
consumption. The finance ministry, however,
blithely ignored this aspect while making
its fantastic claims about recovery in
India.
|
|
State
Finances: The looming crisis |
Dec
14th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Subject to a fiscal squeeze even before
the economic contraction that accompanied
the Covid-19 pandemic, state governments
are now facing a fiscal crisis that is
bound to drag down the economy.
|
|
India's
Post-pandemic Economic Recovery |
Dec
13th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
While the government claims that the Indian
economy is displaying a robust recovery
with double digit growth rates, it is
only natural that the economy will bounce
back to normal after a trough. But when
compared to the pre-pandemic fiscal year,
the economy is actually on a downward
trend.
|
|
A
'Mini-cycle' in the Commodities Sphere? |
Nov
16th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Global commodity prices are rising, driven
by the revival in economic activity as
the pandemic wanes, supply constraints
and new demand stemming from sources such
as the energy transition. The question
is whether the surge will be transitory
or persist for a long time.
|
|
The
Scourge of Demonetisation |
Nov
15th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
No single economic measure in post-independence
India has been as devastating and as utterly
futile as the demonetisation of currency
notes, decreed by the Modi government
in 2016. That it did not achieve its stated
objectives was not unforeseen, rather
it was quite obvious.
|
|
India's
Coal Crisis |
Nov
5th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Coal inventories with thermal power plants
in India had recently fallen to levels
at which major country-wide power outages
seemed inevitable. Although it has, fortunately,
not materialized yet, why such a situation
should arise in the country with the 5th
largest coal reserves, is the question.
|
|
Food
Stocks, Bio-fuels and Hunger |
Oct
25th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The Modi government's attempt to explain
India's slipping from 94 in 2020 to 101
in 2021 on the world hunger index, by
questioning its methodology is jejune
enough; but even more shocking is its
total inability to see the reason behind
the acute hunger in the country.
|
|
Mixed
Signals on the Inflation Front |
Oct
19th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While the world grapples with inflation,
September 2021 figures from India seem
to suggest that consumer prices are in
deceleration mode. But this may just be
a lull before an impending storm.
|
|
Measuring
Unemployment Trends in India |
Oct
18th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
In India only a tiny segment of work-force
has full-time employment; there is no
close correspondence between the magnitude
of work and the number of working people.
Thus, official statistics in India have
for long used not one, but several measures
of unemployment, but none of them is any
good at capturing unemployment trends.
|
|
The
Scandal of Old-age Pensions |
Sep
6th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Any increase in the amount of monthly
pension given by the centre to the elderly
under the National Social Assistance Programme
has been ruled out in the parliament.
This paltry sum offered to aged citizens
is not even inflation adjusted and has
not changed in years. Moreover, many people
who should be receiving it do not even
do so.
|
|
The
Household and the State |
Aug
16th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The erroneous analogy drawn between the
household and the state is meant to keep
fiscal deficit and hence, government expenditure
restrained, even in situations of mass
unemployment owing to a deficiency of
aggregate demand and this analogy is,
thus, extremely dangerous.
|
|
Three
Decades of Economic Liberalization |
Aug
2nd 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
30 years since the adoption of neoliberal
policies, the belief that liberalization
greatly boosted India's GDP growth rate
even though it increased inequality, is
commonly accepted by not just the votaries
of liberalization, but even its critics.
However, that is an entirely wrong perception.
|
|
The
Neoliberal Reforms of 1991 didn't Work as
Claimed |
Jul
26th 2021, Jayati Ghosh |
|
There is a common trope, fed especially
to generations born after 1991, that economic
progress and modernization in India really
occurred only after ‘liberalizing' economic
reforms were introduced three decades
ago. This is a travesty of the truth;
progress in India has been minimal or
even non-existent.
|
|
Is
Socialisation of Investment Enough |
Jul
5th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Keynes believed that mass unemployment
was the chief flaw in the capitalist system;
it could lead to its rejection and hence
supersession. He thought socialisation
of investment within the capitalist system
was enough to overcome its flaws and socialism
was unnecessary.
|
|
The
Poverty of Economic Conservatism |
Jun
28th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
During the pandemic when millions lost
their incomes and livelihood support,
the Modi government did not provide any
cash transfer to the people. This niggardliness
is born out of a blind faith in policy
conservatism, the bankruptcy of which
is now visible to all.
|
|
The
Case of the Missing Vaccines |
Jun
7th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
As India faces an acute vaccine shortage,
the erroneous impression is being made
that it is due to a sudden spurt in vaccine
demand as vaccination is now open for
18-44 group as well. However, the excess
demand for vaccines is not from the demand
side as presumed, but from the supply
side.
|
|
The
Proposal for a Minimum Global Corporate Tax
Rate |
May
31st 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The Biden administration and its huge
stimulus package which is to be financed
by raising corporate tax rates, represents
a shift from neoliberalism. The consequences
of imposition of austerity on the third
world, even as social democratic measures
are implemented in the metropolis, are
yet to be seen.
|
|
Patents
versus the People |
May
17th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Patents work by creating an artificial
scarcity so that innovating firms earn
supernormal profits. But the anti-Covid
vaccines were developed through public
funded research and not by private firm's
money. When thousands are dying around
the world, saving lives has priority over
firms’ profits, for which patents on vaccines
must be removed.
|
|
For
Free Universal Vaccination Against Covid-19 |
May
10th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The Modi government has mindlessly liberalized
vaccine distribution, compelling state
governments and private hospitals to buy
vaccines directly from firms at prices
determined by the latter, when the fury
of the pandemic is raging and urgent vaccination
is necessary.
|
|
An
Issue of Lives Versus Livelihoods |
May
6th 2021, Sunanda Sen |
|
With lockdowns being imposed again, a
large number of informal workers, including
migrants, will lose their livelihoods
and face a bleak future again like they
did last year. That the situations faced
by India's migrants are not a matter of
concern in policy making is quite apparent.
|
|
The
Scandal of Covid-vaccine Pricing |
May
3rd 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
When the country is grappling with the
worst health crisis it has faced in a
century, the Covid-vaccine producers have
decided to seize the opportunity to go
on a profiteering spree, taking advantage
of the Modi government’s incompetence
or complicity.
|
|
Covid-19
in India – profits before people |
Apr
30th 2021, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The unfolding pandemic horror in India
has many causes, including the complacency,
inaction and irresponsibility of government
leaders and the continued election rallies,
when the threat of new mutant variants
was evident.
|
|
The
Resurgence of Inflation |
Apr
26th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The official wholesale price index for
March 2021 is 7.39 % higher than that
for March 2020. Such a high rate of inflation
has not been seen in India for over 8
years. The country is clearly witnessing
an inflationary upsurge and it has been
building up for some time.
|
|
Biden’s
Package and its Pitfalls |
Apr
13th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The Biden fiscal package will benefit
the US economy but could actually harm
developing countries, unless global finance
is restrained.
|
|
A
Lifeline for the News Business |
Feb
25th 2021, C. P. Chandrasekhar |
|
A process to curb internet firms from
freeriding, started by the Australian
competition commission, might culminate
in a legislation whereby search engines
and social media platforms would have
to pay publishers whose content they direct
users to. It shall affect Google and Facebook
initially, but is likely to cover the
likes of Apple News over time.
|
|
Wrecking
Fiscal Federalism |
Jan
26th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The central government's cynical and expropriative
attitude to the states has meant the wrecking
of fiscal federalism, with worrying consequences
for India's future.
|
|
Fussing
over a Non-budget |
Jan
25th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The financial year 2020-21 warranted a
change in the stance of the government,
with a shift away from fiscal conservatism
to a more proactive fiscal policy, but
the NDA government has persisted with
its neoliberal fiscal stance, resulting
in collapsing revenues and stagnant expenditures.
|
|
Prepare
for a Surge in Global Inequality |
Jan
12th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The differential ability, resulting from
preexisting global inequality, to address
the Covid crisis with increased government
spending is likely to substantially worsen
those inequalities.
|
|
Misleading
Economic Signals |
Jan
11th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Financial indicators are hugely favourable
from the point of view of those who benefit
from them even when the real economy is
performing badly. Thus, in this Covid-afflicted
year, amidst economic contraction, both
the stock market returns as well as the
stock of forex reserves in India registered
great increases.
|
|
The
Timidity-cum-Callousness of the Modi Government |
Jan
11th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The Modi government must be the most timid
in the world vis-à-vis international
finance capital and the most callous vis-à-vis
the working people of the country. The
government's economic policy during the
pandemic bears ample testimony to this
fact.
|
|
The
Dangers of Misplaced Optimism |
Dec
9th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
As the government sticks to recovery hype
with the fall in the level of contraction
from 23.9% in the 1st quarter of FY 2020-21
to 7.5% in the 2nd quarter, the danger
is that such optimism would provide the
justification to avoid adoption of the
measures crucially needed to pull the
economy out of recession.
|
|
The
Final Push? |
Dec
9th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
A report of an internal working group
set up by the RBI is reconsidering allowing
entry of corporate players into India's
banking space, which may restrict access
to credit of agriculture and small business
sectors and encourage advances based on
criteria not focusing on risk management.
|
|
What
the Second Quarter GDP Estimates Reveal |
Dec
7th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Government spokespersons exhibited much
euphoria over "only" a 7.5%
drop in growth over the second quarter,
compared to that of 2019-20, although
with the 23.9% first quarter drop, the
talk had been of a "stronger recovery".
However, even this recovery appears both
dubious and immiserizing.
|
|
Immiserization
behind the Recovery |
Nov
23rd 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Ministers as well as the Reserve Bank
of India have seen signs of recovery in
the Indian economy, but there, of course,
had to be a recovery from the deep abyss
to which the lockdown had pushed the economy,
as some degree of normalcy returned; it
is no reflection of any virtue of the
government.
|
|
Modi
on Demonetization |
Nov
16th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
On the fourth anniversary of demonetization
that destroyed the informal sector, including
peasant agriculture and led to unemployment,
Narendra Modi is not only repeating the
claim that black money has been curbed,
but also taking pride in that destruction.
|
|
Covid
Debt and the Tax Paradigm |
Oct
20th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis
government debt has been on the rise in
countries across the world. When the crisis
recedes, recovery would depend on the
extent to which governments choose to
finance repayment with new taxation of
the rich.
|
|
Asymmetric
Effects of Growth and Stagnation |
Oct
12th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Growth under capitalism is associated
with an increase in absolute poverty and
the Indian experience bears this out.
The period of neoliberalism in India witnessed
rapid capital accumulation and hence rapid
growth in GDP and yet this very era saw
an increase in absolute poverty.
|
|
Time
use in India |
Oct
6th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The results of the time use survey of
the NSSO reveal expected but nonetheless
striking results about how men and women
in India spend their time very differently,
with women hugely burdened by unpaid work.
|
|
The
Move towards a de Facto Unitary State |
Oct
5th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Federalism is one of the basic features
of the Indian Constitution, but the tendency
of the Centre to encroach on the domain
of the states has intensified to such
an extent under the Hindutva forces and
the corporate-financial oligarchy, that
the country is being pushed towards a
de facto unitary State.
|
|
A
Damaged Federal Structure |
Oct
5th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The process of centralization of financial
resources at the expense of the states
that had been underway for long has taken
on a new intensity under the current government,
through the transition to the GST and
the Centre's response to the revenue shortfall
of the states in the wake of the Covid-19
pandemic.
|
|
Modi's
Agriculture Bills Push Imperialist Agenda |
Sep
28th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The two bills rammed through parliament
last week were not only anti-democratic
in nature, but also exploitative. It leaves
millions of peasants at the mercy of private
buyers by opening them up to monopsonistic
exploitation.
|
|
A
Government Unequal to the Task |
Sep
21st 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
When there is a lockdown, and output contracts,
it is incumbent on the government to increase
or at least maintain its expenditure to
reduce the degree of contraction and to
enable the population to maintain their
consumption needs. However, by reducing
the expenditure, the GoI did the exact
opposite of what it should have done.
|
|
The
Indian Economy on the Verge of Collapse |
Sep
14th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The disaster staring the Indian economy
consists not in what we have just experienced,
but in what lies ahead and if this disaster
is to be avoided, then there has to be
a massive injection of demand by the government
both through transfers and through direct
spending on goods and services.
|
|
Unravelling
India's Growth Impasse |
Sep
11th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The 24% contraction in India's GDP is
remarkable not only in an absolute sense
but also relative to other countries where
the pandemic was severe. The stringent
country-wide lockdown stopped a host of
economic activities from being undertaken
and no strong government intervention
was done to counter its damaging effects
either.
|
|
A
Guide to Flattening the Curve of Economic
Chaos |
Sep
3rd 2020, Jayati Ghosh |
|
India has become the global leader in
the number of Covid-19 cases and has recorded
the worst economic performance in South
Asia or even amongst the G20 countries.
Wealth tax and taxes on the multinational
corporations need to be imposed and urgent
action needs to be taken to tackle the
situation.
|
|
Can
India stay with GST? |
Jul
28th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Three years after introduction of the
GST, there are no clear signs that this
is a regime that can deliver revenue growth
of a kind that can justify persisting
with it.
|
|
What
could be wrong with a Fiscal Deficit |
Jul
27th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Fiscal deficit puts wealth into the hands
of capitalists without their doing anything
to earn it, thus raising wealth inequalities
in the economy. Government spending needs
to be financed by a tax on the rich, such
as a wealth tax or a profit tax.
|
|
The
Absurdity of Hiking Oil Prices |
Jun
29th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Taxing a universal intermediary like oil
is the most absurd among all options to
reduce fiscal deficit. It will not only
severely reduce aggregate demand but will
also increase wealth inequality, unlike
a wealth-tax.
|
|
The
Fisc and the Economy |
Jun
26th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Neoliberal policies geared to incentivize
private investors while limiting the fiscal
deficit, and the shift to a failed GST
regime, had sharply lowered tax revenue
growth and curtailed expenditure even
prior to Covid. The government is now
faced with a fiscal crisis, and the economy
is in recession.
|
|
A
Stock Market Boom amidst a Real Economy Crisis |
Jun
22nd 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The stock market boom amidst a real economic
crisis in the US reveals the absolute
hegemony of finance in a neoliberal system,
which is forced to rely on asset price
bubbles to stimulate the economy.
|
|
Economic
Contraction and the Fiscal Stance of the Indian
Government |
Jun
16th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Modi government is pushing the Indian
economy into further contraction through
its completely inappropriate conservative
fiscal stance.
|
|
The
Worrisome Return of Capital |
Jun
2nd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In April 2020, while 'emerging market
economies' remained steeped in the Covid-induced
crisis, in a paradoxical turn, equity
markets in some of these countries experienced
a recovery. That may not be a good sign.
|
|
Employment
in India: Aggregate demand and structural
transformations |
Jun
1st 2020, Sunanda Sen |
|
Mainstream economic policies that advocate
fiscal-monetary austerity along with financialization
and speculative transactions have squeezed
the pace of expansion for the real economy.
A major impact of above has been the dismal
state of employment and job creation in
the country.
|
|
The
Mendacity of the "Rescue Package" |
May
24th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The utter insensitivity towards the migrant
workers, the abrogation of labour laws,
the opening up of crucial sectors to foreign
capital, all done under the pretext of
a "rescue package" are a part
of the agenda to please finance capital.
|
|
A
Fragile Federation under Strain |
May
26th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Despite invoking wide-ranging emergency
powers, the central government has left
the task of addressing the Covid pandemic
and financing that effort largely to the
states. The resulting fiscal crisis threatens
the fragile foundations of India's federalism.
|
|
Labour
Rights are in Free Fall |
May
25th 2020, Anamitra Roychowdhury |
|
By suspending labour laws in an undemocratic
manner, states are exploiting the unique
opportunity provided by the national lockdown.
It is time we wake up to its authoritarian
rule and resist unitedly.
|
|
New
Fronts in the US-China Trade War |
May
19th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As the world grapples with the fall-out
of the Covid-crisis, the Trump administration
is ramping up its protectionist rhetoric
vis-à-vis China. If this leads
to new sanctions it would not help the
US but worsen the Covid-induced trade
crisis.
|
|
Outsourcing
the Stimulus |
May
18th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Aware of its own inaction, the government
has outsourced a large part of sorely
needed stimulus to RBI and public sector
banks. But the latter's aversion to risk
is creating multiple roadblocks and it
is time the government directly steps
in.
|
|
The
War on Labour |
May
18th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The brutal suspension of labour laws will
not help attract private investment, or
raise overall levels of profits. It will,
however, lead to a reduction in employment
and output for the economy as a whole.
|
|
How
to Build the Global Green New Deal |
May
12th 2020. Jayati Ghosh |
|
The sharp and rapid increase of inequality
due to the Covid-19 pandemic is driving
home the urgency of internationalism.
Jayati Ghosh explains how we can change
the global economic architecture to enable
a Global Green New Deal.
|
|
Contours
of the Covid-crisis |
May
5th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Early evidence shows that official response
to the Covid-induced crisis in the US
and Europe may lengthen recession. If
the needed fiscal effort is not put in
place even a delayed recovery may prove
elusive.
|
|
It
Takes Two to Tango: Can monetary stimulus
compensate for an inadequate fiscal stimulus
in India? |
May
4th 2020. Parthapratim Pal & Partha Ray |
|
Monetary policy can only make credit cheaper,
it cannot bring money into the hands of
workers. It cannot compensate for a fiscal
stimuli, especially when India is in a
liquidity trap. For such an unprecedented
crisis, fiscal spending has been highly
inadequate.
|
|
What
Must India do now to address the Coronavirus
Crisis |
Apr
27th 2020, Dipa Sinha,
Prasenjit Bose and Rohit |
|
Varied intensity of new cases across states
warrants a calibrated and state-specific
lockdown exit strategy. Owing to disruption
in every sector the country needs a doubling-down
on food and cash transfers and an overhaul
of fiscal and monetary strategy.
|
|
Economic
Policy in the Age of Covid |
Apr
7th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
At a time when the economy is in freefall
absent fiscal push from the Centre only
suggests a desire to favour the rich;
those forces who risk losing a part of
surplus in taxation to finance government
debt.
|
|
COVID-19
and Indian Economy: From rolling down the
hill to falling off the cliff |
Apr
2nd 2020. Jayati Ghosh |
|
As the pandemic unfolds, the Indian economy
is falling off a cliff. There is an immediate
need for massive public spending beyond
conventional fiscal standards. There is
also a need for a global plan for significant
debt reduction, massive increase in global
liquidity, more aid and moratoriums to
survive this crisis.
|
|
Why
have Indian Banks become Financially Fragile? |
Mar
16th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The crisis at Yes Bank is only the concentrated
expression of the vastly increased financial
fragility in Indian Banking. The very
nature of a neo-liberal economy requires
financial instability for sustaining a
boom.
|
|
The
Cost of a Yes to a Bank Rescue act |
Mar
11th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The Yes Bank plan is risky and there is
little doubt that the SBI is acting on
government's bidding. But given the uncertain
investor support in a gloomy economy,
the success of this restructuring exercise
in not guaranteed.
|
|
Economy
Sliding into Stagnation |
Mar
8th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The Indian economy is sliding into a serious
state of stagnation. Suppressed by industrial
repression and a world economy at the
dead-end of neo-liberalization, the economy
desperately requires a powerful fiscal
intervention to be revived.
|
|
A
Shot in the Arm for Virtual Currencies |
Mar
6th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The recent Supreme Court's judgement has
recharged the virtual currency eco-system
in India. The power of the RBI to supercede
this judgement by banning VCs may not
pass the test of proportionality.
|
|
The
Future of Indian Finance |
Feb
18th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The Budget speech includes measures that
could fundamentally transform of India's
state-regulated financial sector. With
the government clearly keen on washing
its hands of the mess in the public banking
system, privatization could be the end
result.
|
|
Capitalism,
Socialism and Over-production |
Feb
17th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Over-production under capitalism occurs
because of speculative investments and
the multiplier effect that follows. As
both these factors are eliminated under
socialism, Soviet Union, with all its
defects, never experienced unemployment.
|
|
Budget
2020-21: Short-term "Fixes" endangering
the economy |
Feb
10th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Expenditure
cuts in rural welfare sectors and disinvestment
in public institutions show that the Modi
government is interested merely in short-term
fixes. It is too timid to circumvent the
constraints of international finance capital
and provide a viable economic solution.
|
|
Catering
to Finance alone cannot Qualify India as a
Democracy |
Feb
7th 2020, Sunanda Sen |
|
Budget
2020 clearly shows that the privileges
enjoyed by finance in terms of their ability
to influence policies in their favour
remain rather exclusive. Can the practice
of ignoring the voices of the working
population and the poor be viewed as a
legitimate democratic process?
|
|
The
Road to Dominance |
Feb
4th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Reliance industries has achieved success
through a combination of aggressive investments,
predatory pricing and consolidations.
Government policies favouring its interests
ensures that it holds out well even as
the economy is in crisis.
|
|
Opacity
in India's Budget Numbers will have Major
Implications for Investors
|
Feb
3rd 2020, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Budget
2020 has turned out to be a huge disappointment.
The central government has not only made
budget numbers even more opaque but also
added to the recessionary tendencies in
the Indian economy, starving critical
social sectors of demand-generating funds.
|
|
Bereft
of Macroeconomic Vision |
Feb
3rd 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
government has been unable to raise its
spending at a time when circumstances
demand a proactive fiscal policy. This
demonstrates the absence of any macroeconomic
vision, clear in the budget speech that
only promises to privilege wealth creation.
|
|
Smokescreen
of Numbers |
Feb
3rd 2020, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Despite
blatant attempts to fudge the data, it
is clear that Budget 2020 will not provide
the required fiscal stimulus to kick-start
the economy. The few benefits will go
to a handful of crony capitalists as the
economic conditions worsen.
|
|
Layers
within the Corporate-financial Oligarchy |
Feb
3rd 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Fascist regimes are based on solid support
of monopoly capital and the contradictions
within it. It is no surprise that even
in the midst of crisis, Modi government’s
only concern is corporate gains through
massive tax cuts.
|
|
Budget
2020: No sense of direction |
Feb
2nd 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Budget
2020 does nothing for either growth or
welfare. Incentives for wealth creation
suggests that the government is looking
to the private sector while the latter
waits for government to take the lead.
|
|
Can
the RBI fill the Budgetary Hole? |
Jan
30th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
Finance Minister cannot credibly provide
for Budget 2020 from resources of the
central bank. The government is unlikely
to obtain windfall gain from interest
and net incomes of RBI of the magnitude
recorded in 2018-19.
|
|
Sitharaman
should be stepping up Spending, but it's too
much to wish for |
Jan
29th 2020, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Instead
of increasing public spending to pull
the economy up, the Modi government till
now has been in denial. Admitting to a
higher fiscal deficit and increasing expenditure
would help, but it may be too much to
wish for.
|
|
Government
Finances 2019-20 |
Jan
28th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
After last years' experience of fudged
fiscal statements, Union Budget numbers
are suspect. The fear is that falling
revenues will once again lead to reduced
public spending, a disastrous trend for
the economy.
|
|
The
Scramble for Resources |
Jan
27th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Given
the obsession to limit dressed up fiscal
deficit figure and unable to think of
better responses to the growth slowdown
than tax cuts, it is more than likely
that better economic management and ways
to address the intensifying stagflation
would not be the focus of Sitharaman's
Budget.
|
|
A
Budget that cannot deliver |
Jan
27th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
With
no credible source of meeting revenue
shortfall, economic slowdown is likely
to intensity in the next financial year,
even as Sitharaman struggles with Modi's
and Jaitley's fiscal consolidation fixation.
|
|
India's
Shameful Record on Wealth Inequality |
Jan
27th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
"The government's fiscal policy must
be blamed for India's worsening wealth
inequality. With a substantial reduction
in taxes on the rich, more investment
by capitalists has been accompanied by
an increase in their wealth."
|
|
Nirmal
Sitharaman’s Challenge: Budgeting with diminished
revenues |
Jan
23rd 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
As
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman prepares
to present her second budget, growth is
decelerating sharply, revenues are lagging
behind targets, the government's off-budget
transactions that make a mockery of budget
estimates are being revealed, and ambitious
plans to sell public sector equity are
proving difficult to realise.
|
|
Revisiting
the NBFC Crisis |
Jan
13th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Even while the effort to resolve the crisis
of NPAs was underway, India's financial
sector was overwhelmed by failures of
large non-bank financial companies. Apart
from poor financial management and downright
fraud, there were structural reasons why
these institutions accumulated bad assets,
which are often ignored.
|
|
JG
Interview with Sampath- The Hindu |
Jan
7th 2020. |
|
In an interview with The Hindu, Jayati
Ghosh talks about her life experiences,
her views about global economic slowdown
and the role of fiscal deficit in resolving
demand scarcity, and the importance of
JNU within a system of crony capitalism.
|
|
Fiscal
Fallacies |
Jan
6th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Capitalists' opposition to State intervention
arises not because of any valid economic
reasons but because of their "class
instinct". Programmes such as Jeremy
Corbyn is putting forward would undermine
the social legitimacy of capitalism.
|
|
Demand-constrained
versus Supply-constrained Systems |
Jan
5th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Unemployment and food shortage that plague
the neo-liberal economies of today are
indeed effects of a demand-constrained
system. Essentially characterised by underutilized
capacity, capitalism can never have a
shortage of finance, which is artificially
imposed by international finance capital.
|
|
A
Self-made Fiscal Trap |
Jan
1st 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Instead of compensating for falling private
demand, the government is cutting taxes
and zealously sticking to its fiscal deficit
target. This is proving to be a recipe
for disaster, further shrinking public
spending and slowing down already sluggish
growth.
|
|
The
Rise in Inflation Rate |
Dec
23rd 2019, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The current inflation does not indicate
excessive demand; rather it is caused
by decline in output of several commodities
relative to shrinking purchasing power.
Reducing aggregate demand will only worsen
growth-slowdown without affecting inflation
in any way.
|
|
Missing
the Big Picture: Arvind Subramanian and Josh
Felman on the "Great Slowdown" |
Dec
22nd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
In their recent working paper, Arvind
Subramanian and Josh Felman correctly
recognise the growth slowdown afflicting
the Indian economy, but fail to see it
as the result of a deep structural crisis
worsened by neoliberal reform that constrains
demand.
|
|
The
Crisis in Manufacturing |
Dec
17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The slowdown in registered manufacturing
draws attention to the structural crisis
afflicting the Indian economy, which is
both generalised and deep.
|
|
The
Perversity of the Neo-Liberal Fiscal Regime |
Dec
16th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
As
the economy slows down, the Modi government
would rather squeeze the state and cut
welfare expenditure directed towards the
poor than stand up to finance capital
under a neo-liberal regime.
|
|
Claims
versus Reality: Who benefits from government
funded health insurance? |
Dec
5th 2019, Ankur Verma |
|
Data
from the recent survey show that health
insurance coverage in India has not expanded
at all between 2014 and 2018. Moreover,
the benefits of health insurance disproportionately
accrue to relatively richer households
while the poor are left high and dry.
|
|
What
Really Happened to Public Spending in 2018-19? |
Dec
3rd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Faced with dwindling revenues in 2018-19,
the government chose to discreetly slash
expenditure, with burden of the cuts falling
disproportionately on sectors of social
and developmental importance and on the
states.
|
|
When
Evidence is Anti-national |
Nov
27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The government's decision to hold back
results of the official consumer expenditure
survey is another move on its part to
suppress information indicative of poor
economic performance under its watch.
|
|
Household
Savings in Troubled Times |
Nov
19th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
"Financial uncertainty and slowing
income growth are driving household savings
out of bank deposits and increasing reliance
on borrowings from NBFCs. With NBFCs under
stress this can lead to a recession unless
measures are taken to stimulate demand."
|
|
The
Argument about Competitiveness |
Nov
18th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Support
for a free trade agreement which creates
unemployment, or lower incomes for the
peasantry, cannot be justified under any
circumstance. Prabhat Patnaik argues that
people were right demanding that the government
should come out of the RCEP.
|
|
The
Changing Nature of Public Employment |
Nov
5th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Indian labour force surveys indicate an
increase in public employment, but very
little of this is increase in good quality
jobs. Instead, most new jobs are of underpaid
women workers without proper conditions.
|
|
RCEP
and Make in India dreams |
Oct
31st 2019, Smitha Francis |
|
In the absence of strategic policy support
that help build up indigenous capabilities
and create the incentives for localisation,
extensive liberalization through RCEP
will only worsen domestic production,
lower export and FDI flows and compromise
national security for India.
|
|
Banking
Jitters |
Oct
18th 2019, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
RBI's
"clarification" that depositors
should not succumb to rumours of impending
bank failures is overly optimistic, suggesting
that the PMCB crisis is an outlier. In
fact, the current precarious situation
has deeper roots in the neoliberal transformation
of public banking since the 1990s, creating
an environment that breeds delinquency
and fraud.
|
|
A
Tax Policy that could Work |
Oct
14th 2019, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
"ICRICT's
proposal of unitary taxation on MNCs would
not only ensure that multinational companies
pay their fair share of taxes but also
help the Indian government tackle declining
tax revenues without adopting regressive
tax measures."
|
|
The
Burden of Public Spending |
Oct
10th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
"Central governments' tightening
control on fiscal resources is preventing
state governments from undertaking the
much-needed public spending which have
recently propped up economic activity."
|
|
A
Counter-productive Measure |
Oct
9th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
Modi government's "fiscal stimulus"
in the form of corporate tax cut is likely
to aggravate the economic crisis. What
needs to be done is the opposite: an increase
in government welfare expenditure financed
by taxing the rich.
|
|
The
Opposite of what was Needed |
Sep
30th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
Modi government's "stimulus"
measure in the form of corporate tax concessions
will aggravate the slowdown instead of
overcoming it and worsen in India.
|
|
Official
Reforms and India's Real Economy |
Sep
24th 2019, Sunanda
Sen |
|
Sops
in the form of corporate tax cuts will
only temporarily stimulate the stock market,
and will not do anything to reverse the
tendencies for the stagnation in the Indian
economy.
|
|
Sops
that are no Stimulus |
Sep
23rd 2019, C.
P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Cutting
corporate taxes will do little to address
slowing investment and output in a context
of low aggregate demand.
|
|
Big
Banks not a Solution |
Sep
11th 2019, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Bank
consolidation would neither spur credit
growth nor address the factors that led
to the large NPA burden that weakened
banks.
|
|
What
Can the Government Do to Revive India's Real
Economy? |
Sep
5th 2019, Sunanda
Sen |
|
The
ailing Indian economy has concerns that
goes beyond GDP growth and the plunging
financial sector.
|
|
Hardly
the Brick and Mortar of a Revival |
Aug
30th 2019, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
recent measures announced by the Finance
Minister to reverse the economic slowdown
do not address the basic problem of inadequate
demand in the Indian economy.
|
|
Troubling
Features of the GST Regime |
Aug
27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Goods and Services Tax regime appears
to have reduced the resource generating
capacity of the states and contributed
to worsening inter-state inequality.
|
|
Developing
Asia needs a New Economic Paradigms |
Aug
14th 2019, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Developing Asia would be a major beneficiary
of a Global Green New Deal based on an
extensive role for public investment.
Trying to incentivise private investment,
as proposed by OECD and G20, is unlikely
to work.
|
|
IBC
Unravelled |
Aug
6th, 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
delayed resolution of the Essar Steel
debt default case reveals a problem at
the core of the IBC process - unclear
specification of how the loss burden should
be shared among the players encourages
them to game the system.
|
|
The
Structure of Corporate Finance |
Jul
17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
New flow-of-funds data point not to a
change in financing pattern of the corporate
sector but to the depressed investment
environment in the economy.
|
|
India's
GDP Growth in the Recent Period |
Jun
21st 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Prabhat
Patnaik argues that, other than for a
few years, the Indian economy has not
really performed much better after liberalization
compared to before: the output growth
rate scarcely moved up, while unemployment
and inequality worsened.
|
|
Gendered
Labour Markets and Capitalist Accumulations |
May
17th 2019, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Jayati Ghosh discusses how social constructions
of gender affect macroeconomic processes,
for example through varying work participation
rates and migration patterns.
|
|
The
NYAY Scheme of the Congress |
Apr
8th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Prabhat
Patnaik argues that the NYAY scheme of
the Congress is a form of "charity"
rather than establishing an economic right
to decent living conditions. But in the
current neo-liberal regime, any transfers
to the poor are welcome, as long as they
do not involve cuts in other social spending.
|
|
The
Abysmal State of Economic Decision Making |
Mar
25th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Prabhat
Patnaik reveals the abysmal state of economic
decision making under the Modi government.
He argues that while the RBI should be
autonomous of the government it must be
answerable to the people and the parliament.
|
|
Housing
Market Mayhem |
Mar
12th 2019, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
C.P.
Chandrasekhar argues that the reduction
in GST rates for the housing sector is
primarily directed towards addressing
the concerns of real estate developers
who have generated excess inventories
because of easy excess to credit and high
profit expectations.
|
|
Is
the Banking Sector out of the Woods yet? |
Feb
26th 2019, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta |
|
The NDA regime has been characterised
by a steep rise in NPAs and frauds, and
a misguided view of ‘corrective action’.
|
|
The
Subversion of MGNREGs |
Feb
21st 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Prabhat
Patnaik asserts that given the context
of the rapid increase in unemployment
in the country, MGNREGS could be an effective
weapon against such unemployment, because
of its high multiplier effects.
|
|
Budget
2019-20: Will it help India's farmers? |
Feb
4th 2019, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
interim budget 2019-20 is unlikely to bring
relief to farmers and secure their approval
for the coming elections. The approach to
farmers in this Budget reaffirms the Modi
government's tendency to rely on optics
and jumlas rather than actual spending and
concrete policies. |
|
The
Boundaries of Welfare |
Feb
4th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Interim
budget indicates that the government's electoral
strategy is to win over the 'intermediate
classes' while ignoring the poor. |
|
On
the Proposal for A Universal Basic Income |
Feb
1st 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Income
support through 'universal basic income'
has to be in addition to the existing
welfare schemes and not replace these
schemes. The expansion of public delivery
of good quality basic services remains
essential.
|
|
The
Motivated Murder of India's Statistical System |
Jan
31st 2019, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Government's
suppression of all the relevant statistics
is harming citizens, economy and the government
itself.
|
|
Here's
what Modi's 2019 Budget can - but won't -
do about India's Jobs Crisis |
Jan
30th 2019, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Constraints
imposed by the FRBM Act on fiscal and
revenue deficit are just an excuse used
by the government to hide its unwillingness
to act on urgent and important public
issues like employment crisis. In reality,
government constantly cheats on the FRBM
Act, through increased "off-budget"
expenditures, misstatement of receipts,
and holding back payments that pushes
the debt onto other entities.
|
|
The
Mistaken Obsession with the Fiscal Deficit |
Jan
29th, 2019 , C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
central government regularly fudges fiscal
data, to pretend to meet the FRBM Act
targets. This messes up public companies,
but does it really matter for the macroeconomy?
|
|
A
Misleading Debate |
Jan
10th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
government's desire to use RBI’s reserve
is based on the erroneous theoretical
understanding. This faulty formulation
results from the need to avoid upsetting
global finance
|
|
Do
'Markets' talk sense? |
Dec
20th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Markets
never were nor can be “rational”, they
cannot be sensible enough to discipline
governments and central banks to do the
right thing. Rather, they have in recent
decades forced central banks to adopt
measures that fuel speculation, and are
therefore patently wrong.
|
|
A
Curious Divergence |
Nov
20th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
An
inadequately analysed but striking divergence
in the services sector's contribution to
GDP and employment growth is a pointer to
the weaknesses inherent in India's services-led
growth model. |
|
Who
Should Control India’s Central Bank? |
Nov
15th 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
standoff between India's government and
the Reserve Bank of India isn't problematic
because of the risk of infringing on central-bank
independence. It is problematic because,
rather than fighting to protect the public
interest, the government's goal is to revive
irresponsible bank lending, protect its
cronies, and win votes. |
|
The
Modi Government's Spat with the RBI |
Nov
12th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Modi government's spat with the RBI is rooted
in the structural characteristic of neo-liberalism.
This entire debate has arisen as a fall-out
of neo-liberalism, of the contradictions
that inevitably arise in a neo-liberal economy
between the compulsion on the part of the
government to please international finance
and its need to win elections. Expenditures
have to be stepped up for the latter, while
international finance disapproves of such
stepping up. |
|
The
Government-RBI Stand-off |
Nov
6th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
current discourse around government-RBI
relations suggests as if there are only
two choices, one where market determines
RBI policy and the other where government
determines RBI policy. However, the root
of the problem lies in the structure of
the neo-liberal regime itself, which allows
too few policy instruments to achieve a
number of objectives. |
|
India's
Wealthy Barely Pay Taxes |
Nov
6th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
India
has one of the most unequal wealth distributions
in the world. The annual Global Wealth Report
indicates that wealth inequality in India
is only slightly below Russia, which is
widely recognised to be the most unequal.
Data shows that the richest are paying a
falling share of the income taxes. The inability
to tax high net worth individuals – or to
collect corporation tax from profitable
companies as expected – in turn means that
the government has turned to relying more
and more on indirect taxation which is much
more regressive and puts the burden of raising
fiscal resources onto common people. |
|
India's
Central Bank and Finance Ministry Must Introspect
Before Rushing to Battle |
Nov
5th 2018, Sunanda Sen |
|
The
conflict represents the need for an honest
attempt to identify lapses in financial
governance and remedies that do not encroach
on each other's responsibilities as well
as rights. |
|
The
Tumbling Rupee |
Nov
1st 2018, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta |
|
Unless
policy measures address the structural problems
underlying India's current account imbalance,
piecemeal steps like tariff hikes would
fail to stall the tumbling rupee. There
is an urgent need to bring down the import
intensity of the growth process it, besides
gradually moving away from high fossil fuel
dependence over the longer term. It is high
time to impose some curbs on volatile capital
flows, which aids and abets bubble-building
only to inflict currency meltdowns in future. |
|
Is
"Formalisation" Possible? |
Oct
23rd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
clamour for 'formalising' non-agricultural
economic activity assumes that the unorganised
sector is an early and backward 'stage'
in the organisation of economic activity.
In practice the unorganised sector exists
because organised employment fails to grow. |
|
Ayushman
Bharat |
Oct
1st 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Modi government's claim of ushering in the
largest healthcare scheme in the world is
completely vacuous. The chosen method of
enlarging healthcare access to the poor
is wrong both because of the route chosen
(the insurance route which benefits insurance
companies more than it benefits the patients)
as well as because of the ridiculously paltry
financial provision. |
|
India's
External Vulnerability |
Sep
26th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
the rise in oil prices explains the sudden
deterioration of the current account balance
in India's external payments, it also signals
the vulnerability to inevitable shocks that
is inherent in the changing structure of
India's external trade relations. |
|
Whither
Indian Economy? |
Sep
24th 2018, Sunanda Sen |
|
While
there are ongoing discussions on rupee depreciation
amidst an atmosphere of apprehension about
the economy and polity of the country, official
sources have continued to deny any possible
threat to the economy. The defensive position
advanced from the official quarters do not,
however, stand scrutiny if one recognises
the fact that none of those indicators of
a robust economy will be sustainable in
the face of slippages running through the
economy. |
|
The
Larger Crisis that NPAs Signal |
Sep
17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Desperate
attempts to prevent liquidation of power
sector assets in companies that are defaulters
point to a deeper crisis afflicting neoliberal
growth. A sector that was plagued by shortages
was opened up to private participation,
leading to rapid expansion in the expectation
of large profits from liberalised prices.
Public sector banks were called upon to
finance that expansion with the government
being complicit. Now, however, firms find
themselves trapped between inadequate demand
at prevailing prices and rising costs that
precipitate default. |
|
Factory
Workers in India |
Aug
14th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
number of workers in the industrial factory
sector in India has grown since 2005-06,
but other trends suggest that the bargaining
power of such workers remains low. |
|
The
State of the Economy |
Jul
23rd 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Indian Economy is facing remarkable combination
of stagnation, inflation and a burgeoning
trade deficit which has been erroneously
attributed to the rise in oil prices alone. |
|
Did
Developing Countries Really Recover from the
Global Crisis? |
Jul
17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
decade after the Global Financial Crisis,
developing countries still bear the scars
in the form of lower growth and lower investment
rates. |
|
Keynes
or New-Keynesian: Why not Teach Both? |
Jun
27th 2018, Rohit Azad |
|
There
is a need for plurality in macroeconomic
education now than ever before for vibrant
policymaking and open minded academic engagements.
The difference between Keynes and New-Keynesian
is not only in their policy prescription
but their understanding of capitalism is
completely at odds with each other. |
|
George
Soros on the Current Conjuncture |
Jun
25th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Factors
like the U.S. sucking out finance capital
from the rest of the world; the appreciating
dollar; the looming crisis for the third
world; the refugee problem for Europe are
together pushing world capitalism into a
serious crisis as put by George Soros. A
Marshall plan may save the system but the
basic foundations of capitalism are against
this proposal. |
|
The
Government is lying to you about the Reasons
behind High Cost of Diesel & Petrol |
Jun
20th 2018, Rohit Azad |
|
With
the comical cuts in oil prices in India,
an international comparison with neighbouring
countries shows that the petrol and diesel
prices in India are the highest in the region.
While a rise in crude oil prices is borne
by the consumers, the benefit of a fall
doesn't follow the same route. A break up
of oil prices and taxation throws light
at the picture. |
|
The
Invisible Class |
Jun
20th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
peasantry has been dubbed as the 'invisible
class' for the simple reason that it has
been outrightly ignored. A basic comparison
of the per capita GDP of this invisible
class across two years using the Economic
Survey 2017-18 gives veracity to these claims. |
|
Has
Donald Trump Already Changed US Trade? |
Jun
19th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Donald
Trump is threatening to dismantle the current
world trading system, but in his first year
US trading patterns show strong continuity
with the previous administration. |
|
Shadow
Cast by the Rupee |
Jun
7th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
rupee has sharply depreciated in the recent
weeks giving reason for concern. The external
events of rise in oil prices and rate of
interest in advanced economies has led to
a surge in the current account deficit and
capital outflows respectively. The success
of 'the liberalization reforms' lies in
the huge capital inflows and thus, has enhanced
the periodic bouts of the rupee, hinting
to symptoms of a bubble economy. |
|
The
Misplaced Growth Discourse |
Jun
5th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
close look at the nature of recent high
growth rates provides ample cause for caution.
The growth shows absence of dynamism and
focus is on a few service sectors. It is
being driven by consumption expenditure
rather than investment which signals a probably
fragile and unstable growth process. |
|
Walmart's
Gamble and what it means for India |
May
29th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
By
taking the majority stake in Flipkart, Walmart
has committed itself to bearing losses in
the medium term in a desperate gamble to
thwart Amazon's rise in India. The casualty
will be the small retail business sector,
which supports a large volume of self-employed
and low-paid workers. |
|
Once
again, the Oil Price Scare |
May
22nd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
oil prices rise again, countries like India
that had benefited from relatively low prices
in recent years have to reconsider their
growth and macroeconomic strategies. |
|
The
So-called "Consumers' Interest" |
May
21st 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
argument in the wake of the Walmart-Flipkart
deal, that having large multinationals in
the sphere serves consumers' interest not
only ignores the plight of local producers
but is also analytically unsound. "Consumers"
are not an entity distinct from the displaced
producers and will get affected adversely
over time. |
|
Leapfrogging
into Services |
Apr
26th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
argument that services reflect a new dynamism
in India and the IMF’s prescription that
the sector can be a driver of growth and
development are far-fetched. |
|
Plurality
in Teaching Macroeconomics |
Apr
18th 2018, Rohit Azad |
|
For
vibrant policy making, an open-minded academic
engagement between contrasting viewpoints
is needed in macroeconomic education. However,
there does not even exist a textbook that
contrasts these contesting ideas in a tractable
manner. This pedagogical paper is an attempt
to plug that gap by presenting a comparative
study across different traditions in macroeconomics
in a unified framework, which can be developed
into a semester-long intermediate-level
course. |
|
National
Income in India: What’s really growing? |
Feb
28th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Recent income growth in India has been dominated
by sectors that do not reflect real physical
output increases – such as finance, insurance
and real estate and public administration
and defence. |
|
When
Business Turns 'Easy' |
Feb
28th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
Modi/Choksi case illustrates how a neoliberal
financial policy regime that is aggressively
"reformist" creates conditions
that make the system vulnerable to fraud
and corruption on a huge scale. |
|
Can
Banking Recover? |
Feb
27th 2018, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Recovery of the banking sector will require
stricter adherence to sound banking rules
and more transparency from public and private
players. And most of all, this applies to
the regulators themselves and the government
that frames all this. |
|
On
the Health Scheme in Budget 2018-19 |
Feb
13th 2018, Subrata
Mukherjee & Subhanil Chowdhury |
|
Neither
the union budget nor the National Health
Policy 2017 presents any clear and convincing
health sector road map. If it is serious
about providing health care to even bottom
40% of the population, not only should the
government increase its current budgetary
allocation substantially but also strengthen
the health infrastructure at all levels
including a strong regulatory mechanism.
|
|
The
Economic Survey 2017-18 |
Feb
4th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Like
the person on the proverbial tiger, the
Indian economy is currently riding a precarious
course. The Government of India’s Economic
Survey for 2017-18 recognizes this frankly,
but its panacea is to keep one’s fingers
crossed and hope that the ride continues. |
|
The
2018-19 Union Budget |
Feb
3rd 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
strategy of the current budget seems to
be simple: make immense noise about “helping
the victimized” but do not give an extra
paisa from the budget towards that ends.
With the expenditure squeeze being carried
out to reduce fiscal deficit, the share
of central government spending in GDP
is in fact budgeted to fall.
|
|
Budget
2018: The Finance Ministry’s Grey Shades of
'Pink' |
Feb
2nd 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even
the vaguely "pink" effort in the
Economic Survey is whitewashed in the finance
minister's Budget speech that is heavily
based on stereotypical gender roles for
women, and even that completely disappears
when we get to the actual budget allocations. |
|
Where's
the Money, Mr Jaitley? |
Feb
2nd 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
This
government is especially good at optics,
at managing public perceptions to persuade
people that it is working for them, rather
than doing so. So it is no surprise that
Arun Jaitley’s pre-election Budget Speech
went on about how much his government cares
for the people, the poor, for farmers, for
women, for people running small and micro
enterprises, and so on. |
|
Budget
2018-19: No money where the mouth is |
Feb
2nd 201, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Billed
as the last full budget of this second NDA
government, Budget 2018 was not expected
to surprise. Its primary thrust had to be
a show of concern for the large mass of
the deprived in India, with some focus on
the agricultural sector which by all accounts
has been neglected and allowed to languish
over the last four years. |
|
Did
the FM Deliver for Farmers? |
Feb
2nd 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
For
those with short memories, let's remind
ourselves that Arun Jaitley has been promising
“top priority to farmers” for a while
now.
|
|
The
Budget and the Farmers: The government's dilemma
in 2018 |
Feb
1st 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Budget
2018 is expected to be famer-oriented, with
persistent agricultural distress and near-stagnant
farmer income contrary to the promises made
by the government. But, even as the election
come near, the scale of increased spending
that is required for all of this is unlikely
to be met, given the self-imposed constraints
of "fiscal responsibility". |
|
Shopping
Frenzy in the New China |
Nov
24th 2017,C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba creates
a startling sales record on this year's
Singles' Day, tapping into the rising consumerism
of the upper middle class. The surge may
not yield the home market growth needed
to rebalance the country's growth. |
|
Indian
IT hits a Speed Bump |
Nov
21st 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A sharp deceleration in growth and restricted
employment expansion in the IT sector, India's
post-liberalisation showpiece, has implications
beyond the industry's boundaries. |
|
Moody's
Upgrade |
Nov
20th 2017,Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
slight upgrade of India’s credit worthiness
by Moody, that equates finance with nation,
is being celebrated by the media as a mark
of Modi’s success, but the criteria it has
used to judge are in actuality open assaults
by the government on the working population.
To transcend such neo-liberal capitalism,
the wrongness of this criteria must be understood
first. |
|
Engineering
a New Crisis |
Nov16th
2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Central
banks are deciding to scale back their policy
of "quantitative easing" in the
form of liquidity infusion through asset
purchases, but they are unwilling to commit
to a quick unwinding of balance sheets fearing
market reaction to a radical change in the
easy money environment. |
|
Monitoring
the Evolution of Latin American Economies
using a Flow-of-funds Framework |
Nov
9th 2017, Esteban
Peez Caldentey and Manuel Cruz Luzuriaga |
|
Flow-of-funds
accounting permits to monitor the financial
sector in terms of flows and stocks and
to analyze its relationship with the real
sector. Traditionally practised in developed
nations, this accounting has not experienced
a parallel development in developing countries.
In order to fill this gap, the paper undertakes
the construction of a data base of flow-of-funds
account matrices for various Latin American
and Asian countries, exemplifying their
use for the study of financial crisis in
these regions. |
|
Unbalanced
Global Growth |
Nov
8th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
distribution of the weak global economic
recovery since the Great Recession provides
little reason for optimism about the future. |
|
The
de-digitisation of India |
Oct
12th 2017, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
failure of digitisation is the result of
the Central government's cart-before-horse
attitude to policy, which does not take
into account the wider context and the supportive
and enabling conditions that must be met
for any policy measure to succeed. |
|
Create
a Crisis and make it Worse |
Oct
12th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
government's proposal to set up an all-powerful
entity to solve the NPA problem has serious
implications for banks and could leave them
vulnerable to, among other things, runs
by depositors. |
|
Strangulating
the Informal Economy |
Oct
12th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
current slowdown in the economy, aggravated
by the persistent world economic crisis,
has much to do with the twin coercive instruments
of demonetisation and GST wielded by the
state to strangulate the informal economy
in a bid to "formalise" it. |
|
The
Class Content of the Goods and Services Tax |
Oct
5th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
In
the discussions about GST, the class content
of this new tax regime has been missed.
Through an overall increase in the taxation
of the informal sector i.e. of the petty
producers and the small capitalists, it
has unleashed the twin process of centralization
of political authority and the centralization
of capital, which in turn strengthen one
another. |
|
A
Bull in a China Shop |
Sep
26th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
BJP government, through demonetization and
GST, coupled with the world economic situation,
it is causing a rare co-occurrence of three
phenomena: a stagnation of the countrys'
economy, a revival of inflation, and a yawning
current account deficit on the balance of
payments. As the era of cheap money in the
U.S. and elsewhere come to an end, Indian
assets might pass into foreign hands. |
|
The
Emerging Crisis in Real Estate |
Sep
26th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
slow down and partial crisis in India's
real estate sector reflects the challenges
facing post-reform growth in India. |
|
Downturn
Blues |
Sep
20th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
most recent deceleration in growth is the
result of the inability of the system to
sustain the artificial stimuli that the
neoliberal policy environment facilitated.
It is a problem that does not lend itself
to easy resolution. |
|
Problems
with Neoclassical Economics |
Sep
5th 2017, Amiya
Kumar Bagchi |
|
While
there are a few examples of successive use
of mathematics in forming empirically tested
mainstream theorems, excessive misuse of
this tool in neoclassical economics leave
little coherence between its "rational
being" and realism. In fact, many examples
prove that it fails to observe the tenets
of its own canon, and people are compelled
to consume beyond their need and capacity,
even in the face of mounting unemployment. |
|
The
Truth About Demonetization |
Sep
1st 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
recent RBI report that shows that 99% of
the demonetized currency notes have been
returned proves false the governments’ claim
that the scheme, that shook the whole economy,
would cripple the black economy, an argument
whose success lay in the demonetized currency
not coming back to the system. Moreover,
with re-monetization complete, there has
been no "flushing out" of black
money whatsoever. |
|
The
Economy: 70 years after Independence |
Aug
30th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Indias'
reliance on fortuitous and volatile stimuli
to drive growth has resulted in inadequate
job creation and widened inequalities while
failing to address social deprivation. |
|
A
Dangerous Analogy |
Aug
24th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Democracy
in India faces a severe threat from the
penchant for centralization and uniformity
that the Hindutva forces have and which
Modi articulated in the Central Hall on
July 1 through his misleading analogy between
the GST and the integration of princely
states by Vallabhbhai Patel during Independence.
Such comparison puts a tax reform and democratic
revolution on the same platform, confusing
biased centralization with unity of the
country. |
|
Economy
Plunging Headlong into Recession |
Aug
16th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
few days old Volume II of the Economic Survey
by Ministry of Finance shows a GVA growth
rate much less than that of the previous
year, and that too artificially boosted
by seasonal variations in non-core sectors.
This deceleration is most likely to continue,
with growing NPAs and plunging exports,
and interest rate cuts will not help in
a demand-constrained economy unless the
government starts thinking beyond "fiscal
rectitude". |
|
What
is Really Happening in Indian Manufacturing? |
Aug
16th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Data
on organised manufacturing production do
not really capture the impact of demonetisation
and its effects on demand, but looking at
some sub-sectors of consumer non-durable
goods provides more insight. |
|
Twenty
Years after the Asian Financial Crisis |
Aug
7th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
It
was the free flow of foreign capital through
"financial liberalization" that
led to the East Asian Crisis of 1997, from
which the "tiger economies" have
not yet recovered fully. Even now, the augmented
foreign reserves of these third world countries
remain woefully inadequate to finance debt
to foreigners, as the hegemony of international
finance capital builds over their own assets. |
|
'Riskless
Capitalism' in India: Bank credit and economic
activity |
Aug
7th 2017, Rohit
Azad, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta |
|
The
Indian growth story of the 2000s' cannot
be over-simplistically explained as a result
of "market-oriented" reforms.
Public sector bank credit-financed investments,
particularly in the infrastructure sector,
played a significant role in sustaining
growth, most crucially after the global
economic crisis. Such a growth trajectory,
however, proved to be unsustainable with
the expansionary phase coming to an end
in 2011–12 and bad loans piling up in the
banking system. |
|
NPAs:
All talk and no action |
Aug
4th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
problem of large NPAs of nationalised banks
can be traced to the neoliberal reforms
in the financial sector and outside, which
prevent large government investments in
infrastructure and capital-intensive industries
that are imperative for development but
too difficult a responsibility for the private
sector to shoulder. |
|
Growth
in the Time of a Credit Squeeze |
Aug
1st 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
GDP
growth figures for the last few years have
camouflaged a deceleration in credit growth
that has affected all but the retail loans
segment quite adversely. |
|
The
Hamburg Fiasco |
Jul
19th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
There
is no sign of any consensus coming out of
the G20 on the need for a mix of globally
coordinated policies and a fiscal push to
pull the world economy out of recession.
What we have once again is a set of statements
that says everything and therefore nothing. |
|
Demography
and care in Europe: The impact of social relations |
Jul
18th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Trends
in social relations are both affected by
and impact upon economic changes. These
in turn have an important bearing on desirable
patterns of spending in the care economy,
as suggested by an examination of recent
marital trends in Europe. |
|
Justice
in the Age of Finance |
Jul
7th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
very limited Barclays prosecution comes
in the wake of a half-hearted investigation
effort, which has thus far completely let
off all those who took the world economy
to the verge of a crisis akin to the Great
Depression. It is not clear if anything
will finally come out of even this case,
which is aimed at merely teaching a lesson
to those who hurt a bunch of financial investors
by violating insider rules. |
|
The
Macroeconomics of Basic Income Grants |
Jul
7th 2017, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
idea of "Universal Basic Income",
today treated as novel, in fact dates back
to Kautilya's Arthashastra and Thomas Mores'
Utopia in the 16th century. Milton Friedman's
"negative income tax" also revolved
around the same idea, which was rightfully
criticized by Minsky for inducing inflationary
expansion in place of direct welfare schemes.
Considering distributional effects, direct
job creation is a more effective way to
tackle poverty. |
|
China's
Labour Market Conundrum |
Jul
5th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Has
China's labour market reached a point where
long years of high growth have led to demand
outstripping supply, resulting in a sharp
rise in wages? |
|
The
Roots of the Agrarian Distress in India |
Jun
29th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
policy shifts of the reform era have not
been in favor of agriculture. Trade liberalisation,
deregulation and a greater role for market
forces have not benefited the farmer, who
is trapped in a persisting crisis. It is
time for today's policy makers to recognise
their own disconnect, and learn from the
evidence at hand. |
|
The
Question of Farm-Loan Waiver
|
Jun
23rd 2017, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
primary reason why loan-waiver is being
demanded at present is not an output fall
owing to any natural calamity. It is the
price-fall on account of the bumper harvest
that underlies this demand. It is the breaking
down of an appropriate institutional mechanism
that is responsible for the peasants' distress
and periodic demands for loan-waivers.
|
|
The
Economy under Modi |
Jun
20th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
As
per official data, half of the country's
population witnessed no improvement in real
per capita income over the three Modi years.
Other indicators like the demand from net
exports, Central Government expenditure
(as a proportion of nominal GDP) and number
of new jobs created in the organized sector,
all reflect a gloomy picture of the Indian
economy. The government has been keen on
keeping finance capital happy while compromising
on these matters. |
|
Crop
Prices and Farmers' Unrest |
Jun
20th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Distressed
farmers are demanding loan waivers, but
that should not deflect attention from what
needs to be done and undone to address the
roots of the agrarian crisis. |
|
The
GDP Elephant |
Jun
6th 2017, Jayati Ghosh |
|
National
income is hard to estimate in India where
so much activity and employment is in the
informal sector. Much of GDP calculation
is not purely "technocratic" but
relies on judgments and assumptions. As
long as our system of national accounting
does not clarify the real impact on the
economy and the actual degree of deceleration
of economic activity, we will remain in
the dark. |
|
The
Unsustainable US Recovery |
Jun
6th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even the limited and unsteady recovery of
growth in the US a decade after the 2008
crisis is based on an increase in debt that
renders it unsustainable. |
|
What
the data tells us about 'Sabka Saath, Sabka
Vikas'? |
May
26th 2017, Anamitra
Roychowdhury |
|
Modi
rose to power by promising development for
all, but his policies have fallen short
in meeting any of the related targets, especially
with respect to employment and livelihoods.
A minor increase in farm income was met
by the lowest-yet wage increase under MGNREGA.
Belying the promises of the Skill India
programme, Quarterly Employment Surveys
show even greater joblessness. Resource
allocation to health and education has seen
negligible growth in the past three years.
And the government narrative has shifted
from development to moral policing. |
|
A
Simple Arithmetic |
May
25th 2017, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
advance GDP estimates for 2016-17, however
calculated, show a grim picture of the economy.
The real per capita income of the agriculture-dependent
population, which constitutes half the country's
populace, has remained stagnant or even
marginally declined during the three years
of the Modi government. While the pursuit
of neoliberal policies can be held responsible
for this, treating the aggregate growth
as a "great achievement" for political
mileage is unwarranted. |
|
Where
will Global Demand come from? |
May
23rd 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
the US reduces its role as engine of global
demand, there are no signs that other economies
will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist
approach exemplified by Germany is creating
net global slowdown. |
|
Narendra
Modi on Poverty |
Mar
20th 2017, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
When
Narendra Modi talks of shifting away from
giving doles to the poor, what he has in
mind is that the money being currently used
for welfare schemes for the poor should
be withdrawn from such schemes and handed
over to the corporate magnates. |
|
The
Latest GDP Estimatess |
Mar
13th 2017, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
article discusses the possible reasons for
the latest GDP estimates provided by the
CSO not capturing the recessionary impact
of demonetization which is an indisputable
and established fact. |
|
Budget
2017-18: The macroeconomic perspective |
Mar
3rd 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
One
reason why the government chose fiscal consolidation
instead of an expansionary budget in the
wake of demonetisation is its erroneous
belief that demonetisation in itself would
deliver fiscal benefits.
|
|
Bad
Loans, Lending Behaviour and Growth |
Jun
7th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
interested observers focus on the bad loans,
accumulating in the books of India's commercial
banks, the implications it has for lending
behaviour and growth are less explored. |
|
And
Now, Price Deflation in India and China? |
May
31st 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
it was presumed the developing world, especially
the more prominent emerging markets, were
less prone to price deflation, data from
China and India show trends of declining
producer prices. |
|
What
can Corporate Planning Learn from National
Planning |
Dec
29th 2015, Pronab
Sen |
|
This
paper examines the historical development
of national planning in India and identifies
the lessons that corporate planning can
draw from the long and varied experience.
|
|
The
Economy: The end of euphoria |
May
27th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Despite
having a good fortune of lower international
oil prices, the Modi government failed to
deliver growth in its first year while the
expectations are still very high. |
|
Government
and RBI: No real stand-off over macro policy |
May
8th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
current stand-off is more of a government
effort to regain influence over macroeconomic
management, as the government is accountable
to the people whereas the RBI is not. |
|
Lost
Between Intent and Belief |
Mar
3rd 2015, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
budget session is being undermined by the
Finance Minister as hypothetical revenue
figures make the allocation figures redundant
under fiscal conservatism. |
|
The
"Niti Ayog" |
Jan
12th 2015, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
replacement of the Planning Commission by
the NITI Ayog marks a centralisation of
economic power in the hands of the Central
Government at the behest of neoliberalism. |
|
Prof.
Bhagwati has Got it Wrong |
Jan
12th 2015, Rohit |
|
Jagadish
Bhagwati's recent pitch for make-in-India
is flawed as it ignores domestic demand
and other pitfalls of an export-oriented
growth strategy. |
|
The
Gathering Clouds of Recession |
Nov
24th 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
world capitalist economy's slide into a
new downturn is likely to be a harbinger
of major economic and political changes
within the structure of world capitalism. |
|
Wooing
the NRI Depositor |
Nov
7th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
significant spike in the inflows into NRI
deposits in 2013-14 has been caused by different
policy shifts of the central bank.
|
|
Dilma
Rousseff's Victory |
Nov
5th 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
While
Dilma's victory represents an important
step in the right direction, intensified
class struggle will be required to sustain
the scheme of "transfers" to the
working poor.
|
|
On
High Interest Rates |
Oct
13th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
RBI's decision to follow a restrictive monetary
policy seems to have been influenced by
the inflow of foreign finance, even if that
is at the expense of growth.
|
|
New
Macroeconomic Consensus Rules Budget 2014-15 |
Aug
4th 2014, Rohit |
|
The
author critiques the macroeconomic framework
that underlies the fiscal consolidation
approach of the Union Budget for 2014-15.
|
|
The
Way Forward for the Economy |
Jul
7th 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
Indian economy cannot be revived by the
neo liberal policies of austerity and incentives
as only fiscal intervention can break the
deadlock of stagflationary tendencies.
|
|
Who
is Afraid of Illicit Finance? |
Jun
16th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
NDA
government's move to appoint an SIT to bring
back illegal money from abroad brought more
complex issues of finance and government's
real intention to the foreground.
|
|
Stock
Market Boom amidst Economic Crisis |
May
19th 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
stock market boom, within a slowdown in
the economy, serves the interest of the
finance capital, and the crisis cannot be
addressed because the boom has to be sustained.
|
|
The
Industrial Growth Conundrum |
Feb
7th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
variations in manufacturing growth estimates
by IIP, NAS and ASI triggered reports of
an upward revision in 2011-12 GDP growth
estimate, but the reasons are not obvious.
|
|
Is
There a Case for Fiscal Stringency in India
Now? |
Dec
11th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
authors examine the evidence on central
government's receipts and expenditure thus
far and consider the validity of the case
for fiscal stringency at this point. |
|
The
Missing Global Recovery |
Nov
26th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Periodic
predictions of a much-belated recovery from
a five-year long recession may divert attention
from the persisting crisis. But the evidence
is too stark to ignore. |
|
The
Elusive Recovery |
Nov
21st 2013, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
While
monetary policies have failed to resolve
the current global crisis, resistance to
fiscal intervention from finance capital
prevents any meaningful solution for recovery. |
|
Is
there a Flight of Capital from India? |
Oct
10th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Capital
flight from India aggravated the overall
position of rupee, but the country's balance
of payments position is the fundamental
weakness which needs to be addressed.
|
|
'Loans
First' – Explaining Money Creation by Banks |
Sep
30th 2013, Arnab
Kumar Chowdhury |
|
In
fractional reserve banking, the description
of banking as "accepting deposits for
lending" distorts the perspective in
which economics of banking is perceived
and analyzed.
|
|
Is
Fiscal Profligacy the Cause of the Crisis? |
Sep
10th 2013, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Current
account deficit is a major reason behind
lack of demand and slowdown. Government
spending on food security can boost demand
for domestic goods and chance of a revival.
|
|
Redistributing
Regulatory Power |
May
21st 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
FSLRC's far-reaching recommendations seek
a fundamental redesign of India's historically
evolved financial regulatory framework in
favour of a liberalised financial sector.
|
|
Fragile
Foundations: Foreign capital and growth after
liberalisation |
May
14th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
shift from debt-financed public expenditure
to debt-financed private expenditure-led
growth in India has resulted in increased
dependence on foreign capital and vulnerability.
|
|
Economic
Crises and Women's Work: Exploring progressive
strategies in a rapidly changing environment |
|
Mar
11th 2013, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Analysis
of women's employment and decent work in
the context of the global economic crisis
shows that gender sensitive policy responses
are more likely to be successful. |
|
Bad
Economics, But Worse Politics |
Mar
6th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
There
is nothing in the budget to reverse the
stagflation, even as the opportunity to
take effective measures aimed at showing
concern for the common man has been missed
too.
|
|
Niggardly
on Essential Spend |
Mar
1st 2013, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Given
that the Indian electorate would soon see
what the real implications of the budget
2013-14 are, it is surprising that his own
party let Chidambaram get away with this.
|
|
A
Recipe for Continuing Stagflation |
Mar
1st 2013, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Budget
2013-14 will deliver neither higher growth
nor improved conditions of life—instead
it is likely to worsen the stagflationary
tendencies in the economy.
|
|
A
Plan for Corporate India |
Jan
9th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Even
though talk of planning is a travesty, the
Twelfth Five Year Plan document is still
a shocker, because of its unashamed advocacy
of measures that favour private capital.
|
|
India's
Growth Story: A comparative view |
Dec
11th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Indian
growth episode was not based on the sorts
of stimuli and methods of financing that
have characterised the growth of some other
more successful Asian economies.
|
|
On
Deregulation in the Petroleum Sector in India |
Oct
17th 2012, Surajit
Das |
|
The
policy of oil price deregulation in the
face of rising international price of oil
would have direct detrimental effects on
growth, inflation and 'macroeconomic stability'.
|
|
Foreign
Finance and India's Development |
Sep
25th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
principal objective of the current government
seems to be that of winning and sustaining
the whimsical 'confidence' of foreign capital
at all costs. This is the new and defining
feature of economic policy of present day
India.
|
|
How
Wage-led Growth has Powered Argentina's Economic
Recovery |
Aug
31st 2012, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
manner in which Argentina has been able
to generate more genuinely inclusive growth,
through the promotion of productive and
fairly remunerated employment and a different
approach to social protection, sets a bright
example of alternative strategy. This could
be a learning lesson for all other countries
trying to come out of the current recessionary
trends.
|
|
Tweaking
Animal Spirits |
Aug
8th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
One
element of the emerging policy consensus
within India's economic policy establishment
involves spurring demand for the private
sector by diverting expenditure away from
subsidies for the poor to finance investment.
Simultaneously, a case is being made for
providing more concessions to cajole the
private sector into exploiting this opportunity.
|
|
Banking
on Debt |
Jul
10th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
latest figures on India's external account
reveal that the problem of declining foreign
exchange reserves is the result principally
of the widening of the current account deficit,
which was far too large to be covered by
an increase in capital inflows. While the
government may do well to address the vulnerability
caused by a rising import bill, especially
on account of gold imports, it has been
adding to external vulnerability by encouraging
further inflows of speculative debt capital. |
|
The
Blame Game around Oil |
Jun
13th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
It
is not that the UPA government is running
out of alternatives to tackle the woes caused
by the oil and currency shocks. The absence
of decisive policies and lack of inner consensus
have trapped the government in a debate
on who would bear the burden and how the
burden should be shared. A combination of
subsidies and tax reforms can address the
issue. But it calls for easing the grip
of neoliberal thinking over the UPA.
|
|
India's
Growth Story Ends |
Jun
6th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Even
when confronted with slowing growth, the
Indian government is adopting austerity
measures that trap the country in a recession,
because of the accumulated presence of foreign
finance in the country. The latter not only
increases economic instability, but also
induces an element of "policy paralysis".
Capital controls are a must to give policy
manoeuvrability to the government.
|
|
Growing
Differences in State Per Capita Incomes |
|
May
15th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
period of economic liberalisation has been
marked by growing differences in per capita
incomes across states, although the trend
has varied across decades. In this article,
the authors examine the evidence on per
capita Net Domestic Product at the state
level since 1980, and consider some possible
explanations for the observed trends. |
|
The
Price of Growth |
Jan
27th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
early signs of a reduction in the rate of
inflation have been used as evidence to
make a case for lower interest rates. However,
there is no reason to believe that within
the current policy regime, rate cuts would
not aggravate inflationary trends once again.
|
|
Democracy
and the Financial Markets |
Dec
1st 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
In
the last few decades, it has become increasingly
common for various developing and "emerging"
markets to give greater importance to appeasing
the interests of financial markets over
the requirements of political democracy.
Now, this is afflicting developed countries
as well, where governments are sacrificing
democracy in favour of the markets.
|
|
''Planning''
for Whom? |
Oct
12th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
There
are some fundamental changes in the Planning
Commission's current perspective relative
to the earlier periods. In the post-Independence
years, pursuit of profit was not seen as
being in the social interest and this was
reflected in the nature of development planning.
But now, profit is the sole motive and the
role of the state is to merely facilitate
this by incentivising corporate activity.
|
|
The
Challenge of Ensuring Full Employment in
the Twenty-first Century |
Oct
12th 2011, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
recent economic growth process in India
and other parts of the developing world
exhibits the inability of even high rates
of output growth to generate sufficient
opportunities for 'decent work' to meet
the needs of the growing labour force. Therefore,
there is a clear case for a shift towards
wage-led and domestic demand-led growth,
particularly in the economies that are large
enough to sustain this shift. |
|
What
World Leaders Need to Do Urgently (but are
not) |
Oct
4th 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Global
leaders' efforts to control the prevailing
anarchy and enable recovery in their economies
end up having the opposite effect, because
the direction of their macroeconomic policies
is all wrong and mobile finance capital
is still largely unregulated. Here are five
basic steps that world leaders need to take.
|
|
India's
Schizophrenic Banks |
Jun
29th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
release of the third of the Financial Stability
Reports being prepared by the RBI provides
new information on the state and behaviour
of the Indian banking system. While banks
appear well capitalised and their balance
sheets robust, at the margin they seem to
be embracing too much risk. |
|
Trading
Growth for Inflation |
May
27th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
If
inflation is influenced by global developments,
adjusting domestic interest rates may do little
to redress the problem. The RBI's latest interest
rate manoeuvre may thus end up being successful
in contracting demand and growth, but it is
likely to fail to rein in inflation.
|
|
Employment
under the New Growth Trajectory |
Dec
22nd 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
comparison of the results of the 55th, 61st
and 64th Rounds of the NSS permits an assessment
of the trends in employment in India during
the years when India transited to an era
of high growth. It suggests that some of
the optimism generated by the results for
2004-05 may not be warranted. |
|
Surviving
Uncertain Times |
Dec
1st 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
It
is now evident that the world economy is
in for another spate of major problems,
with recession and stagnation likely to
affect the largest economies and altering
prospects for growth elsewhere. This article
examines recent patterns of the Indian economy's
external engagement, in order to gauge how
well equipped it is to face this uncertain
future. |
|
Fiscal
Discipline and All That |
Jul
27th 2010, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
There
was a sudden resurgence in Keynesian ideas
everywhere when the global financial crisis
broke in September 2008. But, equally suddenly,
financial markets have once again turned
back on state intervention and policy makers
are giving in to demands for massive cuts
in public expenditure that would require
enormous sacrifices from their populations.
|
|
Foreign Aid or Aiding the Foreign? |
May
1st 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
passing of a draft version of the Foreign
Educational Institutions Bill by the Union
Cabinet has raised certain questions with
protagonists and opponents expressing a
range of views on the subject. While there
is a fear that the process underway is one
of creating a window for foreign players
and then changing the rules in their favour,
question is also raised whether the implementation
of the Bill amounts to skewing further the
inequality in access to higher education. |
|
The
Travails of the Rupee |
Apr
15th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
significant appreciation of the rupee in
recent months, driven by a surge in foreign
portfolio capital inflows, has revived old
and generated new problems for macroeconomic
management. This signals once again that
the need is not for further capital account
liberalisation but for the imposition of
additional controls on the cross-border
flows of capital. |
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