But there are other causes for concern in the composition of savings and
investment in the recent past. It is evident from Chart 3 that private
household savings of both financial and physical forms, has come to
dominate savings. This includes all physical savings by non-corporate
bodies, including the increase in physical assets of small-scale
industries and agricultural units, and so to some extent represents a
dynamism of the these sectors which must be welcomed. But to the extent
that it also incorporates increase physical assets of households which are
not designed to be part of productive assets (such as residential houses
and passenger cars), it may in fact reflect an increase in consumption
rather than saving per se. Also, the complete collapse of public sector
saving, to the point where it has become a net dissaver, deserves serious
attention.
Chart 3 >>
These trends have their counterparts in the composition of gross domestic
capital investment as described in Chart 4. Even over the 1990s, while
the share of the private corporate sector has remained the same, that of
the public sector as fallen quite substantially in a relatively short
time. The household sector has emerged by the end of the decade as the
dominant sector in gross domestic investment.
Chart 4 >>
As was evident already from Chart 1, the primary sector has experienced
the sharpest deceleration in growth terms in recent years. This is part of
a longer term tendency which has meant that there has been a very
significant deceleration in the average annual growth rate of the all-crop
index of agricultural production from 5.2 per cent in the 1980s to only
2.3 per cent in the 1990s.
Further, the RBI notes that during the second half of the 1990s the
volatility of agricultural production has increased. The high volatility
is clear from Chart 5, and is quite sharp for both foodgrain and non-foodgrain
crops. The poor performance of agriculture is attributed by the RBI to
"low and variable growth of output, poor and declining yields, inadequacy
of capital formation and infrastructure and degradation of natural
resources due to inefficient cropping patterns (which) have emerged as the
major obstacles to rapid and sustained growth." (Summary, page 2)
Chart 5 >>
However, the factors which are in turn behind these agricultural trends
are not adequately captured by the RBI report. These factors are very much
part of the overall policy environment which characterised the 1990s.
Thus, one important factor behind the drop in foodgrain output growth is
the drastic decline in real public investment that has occurred in
agriculture over a long period. The deceleration had started during the
1980s, but the 1990s have furthered that trend. In addition, the 1990s
have witnessed a decline in other infrastructure development in the rural
areas, which had increased somewhat in the earlier period. Further, the
strategies of reducing subsidies on fertiliser and attempting to increase
user charges on water, electricity and other farming inputs which a number
of state governments have tried to implement, have also raised costs for
farmers and in some cases led to reduced use of commercial inputs.
Of course, the most glaring problem in the food economy of India at the
moment is the presence of huge excess stocks of foodgrain with the Food
Corporation of India, which are now as high as 62 million tonnes, up by
more than three times in just six years. These are not being effectively
utilised either to reduce hunger in areas and among populations which are
food deficit, or to promote public works which in turn would develop
infrastructure. Chart 6 makes it clear that this is a reflection of the
peculiar combination of increased procurement despite lower harvests and
lower off-take by consumers from the Public Distribution System. And this
too, is very much a creation of economic policies of the past few years,
rather than an arbitrary process.
Chart 6 >>
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