1.
When I was a student in the 1960s, we basically thought
of economics as being divided into two segments: there
was "economic theory" on the one side, and
there was a whole mish-mash of economic history, "Indian
economics" and "development economics"
on the other. Those who were very bright and mathematically
competent (the two were taken as synonymous) did the
former and were on a par with the most highbrow sahibs
, while those who were less so did the latter
(large chunks of which were sometimes pejoratively
referred to as "cowdung economics"). Nowadays,
ever since a host of game theorists and other mathematically-oriented
economists have invaded the domain of development
economics, this absurd stigma attached to the latter
has diminished somewhat, though it has by no means
disappeared, but the basic dichotomy still persists,
between "economics" (or "economic principles"
if you like) and "development economics".
In almost every university in the world, including
every Indian university, there is a whole set of lectures
on "economic theory" which makes absolutely
no reference to the developing countries or their
problems. Then there is a whole set of separate lectures
on "development economics" which deal exclusively
with these problems, in which some of the tools of
analysis learned in the first set of lectures are
occasionally applied. Now, the question arises: how
can such a dichotomy be justified?
2. The most obvious answer to this question would
probably be as follows: the developed economies and
the underdeveloped economies have very different institutions,
notwithstanding the fact of an overlap of institutions
between them. The former represent by definition a
higher level of development than the latter. It follows
then that the institutions prevailing in the former
must constitute the central focus of analysis, from
which the study of the latter economies, though necessarily
separate because of their specificities, can still
benefit, both because of the overlap referred to,
and also because the former represent the ultimate
goal. Looking at it differently, since developing
countries are those which happen to lag behind the
developed ones along the road of development, there
is an obvious rationale in studying the institutions
of the former as the central focus and then looking
at the specific reasons why the laggards lag behind.
This perception, interestingly, is not confined to
"mainstream" thinking alone; it is to be
found even within the Marxian tradition. Marx's remark
that "the country that is more developed industrially
only shows, to the less developed, an image of its
own future" (1977, p.91), which was made in the
context of Britain and Germany, is often universalized
to cover the case of even the underdeveloped economies,
which are presumed to follow, quite spontaneously
in the normal course, the path traversed by Britain
and the other developed countries. From this it follows
that focussing on the analysis of these developed
economies taken in isolation constitutes the first
priority while the reason why some others lag behind
can be discussed subsequently. At any rate the two
inquiries are essentially separate according to this
perception.
Of course one can have an alternative, and more sophisticated
justification for this procedure within the Marxist
tradition. One can argue that the law of motion of
a particular mode of production, whether capitalist
or feudal, seen in its internal unity and as an "ideal
type", must take precedence over, or form a prelude
to, the "concrete analysis of the concrete conditions",
of economies caught in a process of transition, with
admixtures of capitalist and pre-capitalist characteristics.
On this reasoning, whether or not the underdeveloped
economies ever manage to make the transition to capitalism
, i.e. whether or not they are only "laggards"
who would eventually "catch up", there is
a purely theoretical case for a dichotomy between
two areas, which we traditionally designate as "theory"
(focussed primarily on, but not referring concretely
to, the advanced countries) and "development
economics" (referring concretely to the underdeveloped
countries).
3. There is however a basic flaw in this entire perception:
it sees the developed economies, or "capitalism"
for that matter, in exclusive isolation. It is predicated
on the view that capitalism is a self-contained system
which can therefore be legitimately analyzed in isolation
from its pre-capitalist environment. Indeed the reason
why both "mainstream" theory and certain
tendencies within the Marxist tradition converge on
this question of dichotomy is that they both view
capitalism as a self-contained system, no matter how
basic their other differences about its nature may
be. To be sure, the existence of trade relations is
recognized, but "mainstream" economics sees
trade merely as enlarging the opportunities available
to a country, but not as essential for an economy's
existence and growth (on this more later). Trade
in short is seen to benefit every country, and to
constitute an additional bonus for all. Trade theory,
though a part of "economic theory" (indeed
a special case for the application of its basic conclusions)
does not therefore enter the core of it.
Even within the Marxist tradition, the scope for viewing
capitalism in isolation, as being self-contained,
arises, despite Marx's acute awareness of the phenomenon
of colonial exploitation and his remarks about the
"primitive accumulation of capital" through
colonial loot, because in his model of Capital
(Volume I) international trade scarcely figures.
Whether this is a result of the imprint of Classical
Political Economy (especially Ricardo) on Marx, or
a reflection of the unfinishedness of Marx's project,
is beside the point. It makes possible the emergence
of the above-mentioned theoretical dichotomy within
the Marxist tradition as well, even though the literature
on imperialism that came up around the First World
War within this tradition, makes the tradition as
a whole immune to the charge of upholding this dichotomy.
The result of this dichotomy, however, which "mainstream"
economics so assiduously cultivates, is to impoverish
both "economic theory" as well as "development
economics" . In other words it does not
merely detract from an understanding of the problems
of development; it makes the so-called economic theory
itself largely irrelevant. I shall cite three examples
from economic theory to illustrate this point.
4. My first example relates to "mainstream"
Growth Theory. I shall refer explicitly only to Solow's
model (1956), even though what I say applies to Growth
Theory in its other incarnations as well. The basic
conclusion of the theory is that the rate of growth
of a capitalist economy is tethered in the long-run
to the exogenously given rate of growth of its labour
force in "efficiency units" (in recent "endogenous"
growth theories, this rate of growth is not entirely
exogenous, but the exogenous component nonetheless
exercises a restraining effect on long-run accumulation[1]).
This is because, unlike in the Classical or Von Neumann
models, labour here is a "rent good"; it
cannot be internally produced or acquired in adequate
quantities at the going wage rate.
At first sight this appears a plausible assumption.
Even though the advanced countries may not have full
employment, they have reserve armies of labour which
can get exhausted quickly; and the very process of
exhaustion would put pressure on the wage rate and
lower the rate of accumulation (as Goodwin (1967)
had argued). What is wrong then in asserting that
accumulation is constrained by the exogenously given
rate of growth of the labour force?
The error consists in believing that capital has available
to it only the labour force of its country of origin.
In fact the entire labour force of the world is at
its command, and the reserve army at the world level
is so large that the constraint on accumulation cannot
conceivably be attributed either to any absolute labour
shortage or to any pressures on the wage rate arising
from the process of its exhaustion.
This is no idle speculation. In fact, throughout history,
capital accumulation by the metropolis, whether
located in the metropolis itself or outside of it,
has always drawn on world labour reserves (located
in particular in India and China) whenever the need
has arisen. In the nineteenth century, there
were two huge streams of migration: of European labour
migrating to the temperate regions of white settlement,
occupying land by forcibly dispossessing the local
population, and having capital migration following
in its wake; and of tropical labour, mainly from India
and China, migrating to other tropical lands to serve
the needs of European capital in mines and plantations.
These two streams were kept strictly separate by migration
controls, and their wage rates (or incomes per head)
too were vastly different (owing to the former's access
to "free land"). But each of these was a
mighty stream, involving as many as 50 million persons[2]. Similarly,
in the post-Second World War years when Keynesian
demand management lowered unemployment in the metropolis,
substantial migration took place from less developed
countries to the metropolis to serve the needs of
capital, from Turkey to Germany, from Algeria to France,
from the Indian subcontinent to the U.K., from Mexico
to the U.S., and so on. Given this enormous scale
of migration that has unfailingly occurred historically
to serve the needs of capital, to believe that capital
meekly adjusts to the "natural rate of growth"
of labour force within its country of origin is nothing
short of a travesty. Indeed, as Nicholas Kaldor came
to emphasize in his later writings (Kaldor 1978),
the one thing that capital accumulation has never
been constrained by is shortage of labour. But the
poverty of "mainstream" theory here arises
because of looking at the capitalist economy in isolation,
as a self-contained entity, with no access to labour
from pre-capitalist economies.
5. The second example relates to the so-called Non-Accelerating
Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU)[3].
The monetarist version of it is the Natural Rate of
Unemployment (NRU) which is nothing else but de
facto full employment. Let us consider the monetarist
version first. At NRU the supply price of labour equals
the marginal product of labour. The level of employment
can be increased beyond what is given by the NRU,
but only if the workers do not anticipate inflation.
And even in such a case, it can be maintained
at this level only if expectations are adaptive
and not rational, and then too only at the expense
of accelerating inflation. The presumption underlying
all this is that a given amount of labour is supplied
only if a particular real wage is expected to be obtained;
if the expected real wage is lower, then only a smaller
amount of labour would be supplied. Now, in third
world economies saddled with massive labour reserves
this is patently untrue; even when real wages secularly
decline, without there necessarily being any divergence
between the expected and the actual real wage, the
labour supply never starts drying up. From this fact
it follows that in so far as commodities produced
by third world labour enter the production process
in the metropolis as inputs, talking of a Natural
Rate of Unemployment is meaningless.
Even if we take the more general concept of NAIRU
which is in no way linked to de facto full
employment, the same question again arises: as long
as there are workers, located within an ocean of labour
reserves, whose ex-ante wage-claims are
compressible in real terms, we cannot talk in terms
of a NAIRU. If these workers are located outside the
capitalist economy, so that their lower real wage
rate expresses itself as lower terms of trade for
the outside economy's product vis-a-vis that of the
capitalist economy, then one can talk of a particular
level of NAIRU within the capitalist economy, associated
with each level of the terms of trade . But since
the real wage rate of these workers is ex ante
compressible, i.e. can be actually lowered without
causing accelerating inflation, it follows that the
terms of trade can always be turned against their
products, to the extent required to prevent accelerating
inflation in the metropolis, no matter what the
level of employment. It follows in other words
that the capitalist economy can settle at any level
of employment without experiencing accelerating inflation,
as long as labour reserves exist outside of it, in
the surrounding pre-capitalist economies. The fact
that the contrary has been asserted, and on the basis
of it the possibility of Keynesian demand management
has been denied, is only because the capitalist sector
has been seen in isolation, as a self-contained entity.
6. My third example concerns Trade Theory[4].
There is a basic presumption underlying the theorems
of Trade Theory which is worth re-iterating, if only
because it is not always appreciated. And that is
the following.
[1]This
is true of all "endogenous" growth theories
in which the attainment of an equilibrium is not dependent
on a specific rate of labour force growth. In these
models the larger the rate of labour force growth
the higher is the rate of growth of capital stock
and output in steady state. There are however some
theories in which equilibrium can be attained only
with a stagnant population (any positive rate of population
growth makes the economy explode). In the case of
these, the assertion in the text that the rate of
accumulation would be higher for a higher growth rate
of the exogenous component (viz. labour force) would
not be justified. But these models, no matter what
one thinks of their insights, must be considered structurally
flawed in this respect.
[2]W.Arthur
lewis (1978, p.14) writes: "The development of
the agricultural countries in the second half of the
nineteenth century was promoted by two vast streams
of international migration. About fifty million people
left Europe for the temperate settlements...About
the same number- fifty million people- left India
and China to work mainly as indentured labourers in
the tropics on plantations, in mines, or in construction
projects...".
[3]The argument
of this section has been developed at length in Patnaik
(1978).
[4]The argument
given in this paragraph is taken from U.Patnaik (2003).