In
other words, much of the subsidiary economic activity for rural males
tends to be some form of agricultural activity rather than
non-agricultural work. It is also worth noting that the current weekly
status, which gives a flow measure of labour rather than a stock measure,
provides much lower estimates of activity for agriculture in particular.
For
rural women, the picture is quite different. To begin with, Chart 10 shows
that the 55th Round stands out in terms of a very sharp drop in
the share of agriculture, which is completely counter to the earlier
rising trend evidenced from all the earlier Surveys of the 1990s. In fact,
according to Principal and Subsidiary Status together, the drop in the
share of agricultural work is around 12 percentage points, from 37.6 to
25.5 per cent just between 1998 and 1999-2000, which appears rather
implausible.
Chart 10 >>
This
decline is even sharper if the Principal status alone is considered, which
fell by nearly 20 percentage points between the two Surveys which were
very close together in time. Meanwhile, however, the weekly measure shows
an increase in the share of agricultural work. All this clearly deserves
more investigation.
The
point is that such a dramatic decline does not appear to have been
compensated for by a commensurate increase in non-agricultural employment
for rural females. It is true that the 55th Round does indicate
an increase in this share by all the indicators, but this still accounts
in total for a very small share of less than 5 per cent of the total
female population.
For
both males and females, the overall decline in work participation which is
reflected by these figures should be explained by either education or
unemployment, or a combination of the two. As Chart 9 show, the
proportion of males in education has indeed increased, but this increase
is not as substantial as the fall in aggregate employment rates would lead
us to expect. In fact the 55th Round shows very little
difference from the earlier Rounds in this respect, merely conforming to
the generally upward trend but with no sharp additional increase.
Chart 9 >>
Similarly Chart 13 which shows the same data for rural females again shows
that there is a continuation of the earlier upward trend in terms of
participation in education, but the increase is not large enough to
explain away the fall in aggregate employment rate (as per cent of
population). It is also worth noting that for both males and females, the
current weekly status shows a lower degree of participation in education
than the usual status definitions, indicating that even when there may be
formal registration in education, actual attendance is probably less. (The
current daily status shows an even lower rate.)
Chart 13 >>
So
then what are the trends in unemployment ? Chart 8 plots the male
unemployment rates as proportion of rural male population, while Chart 12
does the same for females. It is interesting to find that the usual status
definitions actually suggest that unemployment rates fell in the 5th
Round compared to the immediately preceding Round, although they remain
higher than for the previous large sample survey. For women the
unemployment rate even by usual status increased over previous Rounds.
Chart 8 >>
Chart 12 >>
But
even more striking than that is the strong divergence that the latest
Round suggests between usual status and current weekly status definitions
of unemployment. It should be noted that even the current weekly status
definition of unemployment is a fairly restrictive one, which excludes
large numbers of people who are effectively unemployed. Thus, the NSS
reports a person as working if he or she had worked (i.e. pursued any
economic activity) for at least one hour on at least one day during the 7
days preceding the date of survey.
Even
by this very restrictive definition, the 55th Round results
suggest that the proportion of male population who had not found any work
for even an hour in the previous week had doubled to more than 2 per cent
(amounting to a much higher share of the labour force) in just the period
since the previous survey. For women too, the unemployment rate by weekly
status definition shows a sharp increase.
More
to the point, since the decline in work participation rates cannot be
fully explained by either education or unemployment, it seems that there
must be other factors which are affecting the rates. In developed
countries, much is made of the "discouraged worker effect", which means
that those who find it difficult to get jobs often withdraw from the labour force. This is likely to have much less relevance in the Indian
rural economy context where informal and self-employment figure much more
prominently, where social security systems are lacking and where the
luxury of open unemployment is simply not available to most of the poor
population.
In this context, the
facts of decelerating employment growth, increased unemployment rates and
declining work participation rates which cannot be explained completely by
greater participation in education, point to a very serious crisis of
employment generation in rural India. The aggregate picture, therefore, is
one that must lead to pressure for reorienting the macroeconomic strategy
towards the basic goal of increasing productive employment opportunity.
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