The macro-management of
capitalist economies based on this premise became increasingly limited not
only because of the inflationary barrier which constrained the use of
Keynesian-style policies. With the rise of finance in developed capitalist
economies, government deficits were seen as inherently negative, either
because they were seen as inflationary or because they were seen
inevitably to "crowd out" private investment by drawing upon the available
pool of savings, raising interest rates, etc.
Of course, this
supposition too is flawed, implicitly dependent upon the assumption of
full employment of resources which is hardly ever justifiable.
Nevertheless it has achieved the status of dogma in much mainstream
thinking. As a result, the need to restrain the fiscal deficit is seen as
axiomatic not only by the IMF but also by governments anxious to attract
private capital, and financiers generally.
But there are at least
two very common situations in which fiscal deficits are not only
justifiable but may even be necessary for a desired level of economic
activity or a desired pattern of economic growth. The first is when there
is unemployment/excess capacity in the economy, or it is undergoing a
recession, in which a stimulus is required for economic activity in the
manner described above.
The second relates to
the pattern of the expenditure which constitutes the fiscal deficit. If
this is in the area of productive capital expenditure which is necessary
for future growth, then clearly any investment which contributes to
increased output in future has a positive role. The basic rule of thumb
here is that the expected social returns from such investment (not
necessarily just the financial returns) should be higher than the
prevailing rate of interest.
These are such basic
and obvious ideas that it is difficult to realise how seldom they are
expressed, even in the current Indian conjuncture where both such
conditions hold. Thus, despite the presence of substantial unutilised
capacity, large stocks of foodgrain currently in the public domain, and
falling rates of crucial public investment in infrastructure and other
important areas, the most common argument is that the government "does not
have the money" to undertake the necessary expenditures. It is even more
common to come across the perception that the most important problem in
the economy today is the need to contain the fiscal deficit, even at the
cost of lower growth and reduced public investment.
The consequence of such
a view is twofold. First, it restricts the ability of the government to
ensure a higher level of economic activity than we are currently
witnessing, and to ensure a more definitive recovery from the recession.
Second, and perhaps more important, it means that the government does not
undertake important expenditures which impact directly on the welfare of
most of the people because of the bogey of the large fiscal deficit.
The major negative
effects of this are felt not only in physical infrastructure such as
energy and transport, where private sector activity is simply inadequate
for social requirement, but also in health and education which depend
critically upon public expenditure. Similarly it prevents the expansion of
rural public works programmes and other rural development schemes which
could both raise employment generation and improve the availability of
rural infrastructure. The important point here is that the obsession with
containing the fiscal deficit primarily caters to finance - both domestic
and international - which objects to such deficits and more generally to
government expenditure. In doing so, it neglects the material interests of
the large bulk of people in the country, who are adversely affected by the
cuts in expenditure which are self-imposed by the government. The
distributional effects of this process cannot be ignored for too long.
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