It
is worth noting that these conditions are actually far more stringent
and restrictive than even the European Union's infamous Maastricht
criteria, which allow 3 per cent of GDP for the fiscal deficit and 50
per cent of GDP for the public debt. They are even more stringent than
the recommendations of the Committee on Fiscal Responsibility Legislation,
which also suggested fiscal deficit limits of 3 per cent of GDP.
Of
course, the particular relevance or sanctity of the 3 per cent figure
has never been adequately explained, even by its most ardent supporters.
It is clearly an arbitrary rule of thumb criterion that has somehow
met with some degree of wider approval, among financial markets in particular.
But a much lower limit of only 2 per cent, in a developing economy with
structural constraints on growth, is even more strange and difficult
to explain. What considerations prompted the Finance Minister to choose
this very low figure as an upper limit for one of the most critical
instruments in the hands of the state for promoting investment and growth?
Note
also that this provision makes no concession for the cyclical nature
of deficits (the fact that fiscal deficits tend to increase during the
downswing and decrease during the upswing) or for estimating a "structural
deficit" which would take account of this. This makes it even more
rigid and inflexible than similar fiscal responsibility legislation
in other countries, and totally constrains the ability of the government
to respond to downturns in economic activity through a more reflationary
fiscal stance. While this may comfort financial markets (although even
this is debatable) and those obsessed with balanced budgets, it is difficult
to see how domestic economic agents, including industry, could possible
welcome it, since it would leave them completely unprotected over a
recession.
In
addition to these alarming conditions that have to met, the bill requires
that Central Bank accommodation to the government should be minimised.
Thus there is a stipulation that " the Central Government shall
not borrow from the Reserve Bank" except by way of temporary ways
and means cash advances to be settled over each financial year. This,
too, is an extraordinary provision, which completely misses the point
about the functions of central banking.
The
reasons for this provision are explained in more detail in the Report
of the Committee, which points to "the necessity of insulating
the central bank from the pressure of the Government" and argues
that otherwise two unfortunate and negative effects may arise. First,
the government may be tempted to use deficit financing (that is money
creation) to finance expenditures, which it is argued would create an
"inflation tax" on the country. There is no basis for believing
this, since the increase in base money does not create inflation, which
as mentioned earlier results from the excess of aggregate expenditure
over aggregate income.
Second,
and even more tellingly, the Committee argues that " given the
trade-off between price stability and output in the short-run, (there
is) the risk of the Government sacrificing price stability in favour
of higher output levels." (Report, page 11) Could there now be
any doubt as to whose interests such legislation serves? The possibility
of higher output, creating more employment and income for the citizens
of the country, is to be sacrificed at the dubious altar of the price
stability beloved of finance, which is (mistakenly) supposed to result
from the curtailment of RBI credit to the government!
All
these quite arbitrary and incredibly stringent rules are presented,
both in the Committee's Report and in the final proposed Bill,
as if they are easily justifiable and even completely natural. The truth
is that they are both unwarranted and unnecessary, and if implemented
they would actually be substantially detrimental to the material interest
of most of the Indian people. This is because such measures would not
only force deflation on the economy, but also involve reductions in
public expenditure to meet these very severe criteria, so that public
expenditure which is important and necessary for growth and welfare
would not be made.
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