Further, once there are institutions
that are free of the now-diluted regulatory system, even those that
are more regulated are entangled in risky operations. They are entangled,
because they themselves have lent large sums in order to benefit from
the promise of larger returns from the risky investments undertaken
by the unregulated institutions. They are also entangled because the
securities on which these institutions bet in a speculative manner are
also securities that these banks hold as "safe investments".
If changes in the environment force these funds to dump some of their
holdings to clear claims that are made on them, the prices of securities
the banks directly hold tend to fall, affecting their assets position
adversely. This means that there are two consequences of the new financial
scenario: it is difficult to judge the actual volume and risk of the
exposure of individual financial institutions; and within the financial
world there is a complex web of entanglement with all firms mutually
exposed, but each individual firm exposed to differing degrees to any
particular financial entity. The increase in the incidence of cross-industry
mergers within the financial sector consolidates this tendency towards
entanglement of agents involved in sectors of financial activity characterized
by differential risk and substantially differential returns, thereby
increasing the share of high-risk assets in the portfolio of large financial
agents.
It is in this light that the
consolidation in the financial sector involving a reduction in the number
of operators, a huge increase in the size of operators at the top end
of the pyramid, and the growing integration of financial activity across
sectors and globally needs to be assessed. While the rise to dominance
of finance has been accompanied by a growing role for speculative investment
and profit, the concentration of increasingly globalized financial activity
would lead to higher share of speculative investments in the portfolio
of financial agents and greater volatility in investments worldwide
as well as make it difficult if not impossible for national regulators
to monitor the activity of these huge entities. The risk of financial
failure is now being built into the structure of the system.
This
has two kinds of consequences. First it increases systemic risk within
the financial sector itself. If transactions of the kind that led upto
the savings and loan crisis or the Barings debacle come to play a major
role in any of these large behemoths, and go unnoticed for some period
by national regulators, the risks to the system could be extreme, given
the integration of the financial system and entanglement of financial
firms. Second, once a crisis afflicts one of these agents, the process
of bailing them out may be too costly and the burden too complex to
distribute. The G-10 report is quite candid on this count. To quote
the report:
"It seems likely
that if a large and complex banking organisation became impaired, then
consolidation and any attendant complexity may have, other things being
equal, increased the probability that the work-out or wind-down of such
an organisation would be difficult and could be disorderly. Because
such firms are the ones most likely to be associated with systemic risk,
this aspect of consolidation has most likely increased the probability
that a wind-down could have broad implications.
|