In Europe the
response has been more confused. When the Swiss national carrier Swissair
was effectively grounded this week by creditors who refused to provide any
more loans, there was a tremendous outcry among the Swiss public. The
chief creditor who pulled the plug out for the airlines, the Swiss Bank
UBS had its offices stormed, its employees receive death threats, and its
managers publicly insulted by the normally staid Swiss press. The
government has had to step in with a bailout package that will allow the
company to function for another month in the first instance. Similarly, in
Belgium, the carrier Sabena (which is still minority share owned by the
Belgian government) has been temporarily rescued by the government.
The most extreme example comes from New Zealand, whose government has just
announced plans to renationalise the national airline Air New Zealand,
just 12 years after it was enthusiastically privatised. The government is
to take an 83 per cent stake in the company, as part of a rescue package
that will also involve a large injection of new capital to resolve its
current financial troubles. Significantly, no further capital is to be
sought from either of the current owners, Singapore International Airlines
or Brierley Investments, both of which are widely blamed for Air New
Zealand's recent woes.
Why is there this sudden revival of state intervention in the airline
industry, and why is there such wide public backing for it ? It would be
easy to see this as simply another example of governments moving in to
protect private profits, especially given the political voice and lobbying
power of these large companies. But there are other reasons for the
extensive public support for such moves. It was openly stated in
Switzerland, for example, that quite apart from the blow to national pride
and all that, there would be a huge loss of services consequent upon
reduction of flights to and from Swiss destinations, and problems of
passengers resulting from the fact that other airlines simply would not be
as concerned with cross-subsidisation to ensure benefits to citizens. In
addition, of course, there are all the linkage effects of such air
services, in terms of trade and tourism facilities and their employment
effects.
The basic reason for public intervention in this industry – as indeed in
many others – is the presence of externalities, that is in the fact that
the private rate of return on all or some activities is different from the
social rate of return. Thus, for example, even in India the private
airlines typically fly the highly profitable inter-metropolitan routes or
those which link major tourist or business centres, and simply ignore
others. If only private airlines were relied upon, many parts of the
country would simply be unconnected by air, regardless of the other needs
for such services.
Public ownership of airlines allows such a company to cross-subsidise the
less profitable but socially desirable routes with through the more
profitable ones – but private companies would simply tend to settle for
more profit, in the absence of strictly enforced regulation or other
incentives. It is interesting that a period of crisis has served to
clarify the matter even among consumers in developed countries.
It turns out that the airline industry may not be alone in relying heavily
on government intervention to survive. The insurance industry has also
been adversely affected, and it has responded by effectively reducing its
services. Immediately after September 11, insurers in US and Europe not
only increased airlines' premium payments, but also cut their cover for
third party war and terrorism liabilities to a maximum of $50 million per
airline per event. They are now refusing to provide insurance cover for
major sporting events such as the Olympics to be held in Athens. In
consequence, many governments have effectively become the "insurer of last
resort", providing some cover and liability for damage to both industries
and events.
Of course, this is the role that governments traditionally played, of
providing some protection to citizens in the face of disaster, and it was
part of a social contract that saw this as a necessary concomitant of
raising resources. All that was eroded in public perception by the
privatising wave of the 1980s and 1990s, but it is remarkable to see how
quickly that privatising paradigm can crack under pressure.
In India, unfortunately, we are usually about a decade behind the times in
terms of economic policy "fashions". Thus we can have a government that
can still talk bravely about increasing the pace and extent of
privatisation, including of the national airline, even as the story that
makes international rounds is of renationalisation. We may still escape
the dubious and ironical experience of having to privatise our national
assets for a song and then buy them back at vast expense in times of
crisis.
But if we do manage to escape this fate, the credit would not go to the
government which is currently attempting to instigate this very process.
Instead, we would have to thank a combination of domestic social and
political pressure, and peculiar and horrifying international events, if
it helps us to avoid this denouement.