It
is beyond doubt that the general elections of 2009 have
delivered a severe blow to the Left parties. Of course,
it was always likely that the Left would come down from
its historically high tally of 61 seats in the previous
Lok Sabha, especially as these came overwhelmingly from
only two states. But the extent of the decline in Left
seats, to less than half the previous figure, nevertheless
comes as a shock.
What is particularly disturbing is the performance in
the two previous Left strongholds of West Bengal and
Kerala. What explains this sharp deterioration? This
is a crucial question, since if the Left is to recover
and grow again, as well as spread its message to other
parts of the country, it is important to draw the right
lessons from this defeat and to change strategy accordingly.
The lessons are likely to be different in the two states.
Most people would agree that the Kerala state government
is reasonably popular, and the Chief Minister certainly
continues to command very high approval ratings. But
the margins of victory and defeat have always been relatively
small, and the state has a history of consecutively
shifting both Lok Sabha and Assembly victories across
the two major fronts. So even a small shift in vote
percentage can cause very large shifts in the seats
won or lost, and this is likely to have been the case
in this election. Having said that, it is also likely
that the widespread perceptions of factionalism within
the main Party in the Front, the CPI(M), made people
uneasy and harmed the Front electorally. The rather
rigid attitude towards alliances with some smaller parties
in Kerala before this particular election also did not
help.
In West Bengal the picture is more disturbing. There
is clear evidence of vote shifts against the ruling
Left Front, and this message from the electorate cannot
be ignored but must be addressed. The Left Front has
ruled the state for more than three decades, providing
not only stability but also many extremely positive
measures for the improvement of conditions of life of
ordinary people: not just the crucial land reforms that
were the most extensive of any state government in the
last thirty years, but the pioneering moves towards
decentralisation and providing more powers to locally
elected bodies.
However, in the past few years the state government
of West Bengal, through its own actions or its inability
to get its message across, has contributed to some loss
of goodwill among the people. Three features that must
be recognised and addressed are:
-
the sense of alienation among the peasantry in the
wake of the events at Singur and Nandigram and the
inability of the government to adequately justify
its actions to the people in terms of the necessity
for industrialisation of a socially desirable sort,
or even to publicise its continuing land distribution
programme;
-
the
perceptions of discrimination among the Muslim community,
even among those who have earlier been consistent
Left supporters;
-
the feeling that the government has been more heavily
influenced by the bureaucracy rather than responding
to - and engaging with - the actual cadre of the
parties, the bright and highly committed people
who have given their lives towards working for socialism
and for the ideals of the Left.
Obviously, to regain the support of those citizens who
currently feel alienated, the state government and the
Left parties must actively work to undo all of these.
To these negatives must be added some errors of omission,
in terms of positive policy interventions that have
not been sufficiently utilised or developed. The most
important of these is the National Rural Employment
Guarantee Act, which was brought about by the UPA government
largely because of insistent pressure from the Left
at the national level. It is worth noting that the states
in which the parties of ruling state governments have
been successful in this election are those in which
the NREGS has been implemented extensively and with
some enthusiasm: Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan,
Orissa. In West Bengal there has been much less focus
on NREGA implementation - in fact it is one of the less
successful states in this regard. So this is clearly
a necessary and high priority task for the Left Front
government. Another critical area of public intervention
that requires urgent attention is the Public Distribution
System for food, which needs to be revamped, extended
and strengthened in the state.
While this election result is a major setback, it can
also be turned into an opportunity for Left revival
and expansion, not only in these two states but across
the country. The clear result in Tripura has been little
noticed, but it speaks extremely well of the solid support
and popularity of the Left Front government in that
state. In other states where the Left has won seats
or got many votes, it reflects the long and committed
struggles of the local cadre on issues that are fundamental
to the core support of these parties: land, livelihood,
conditions of living and social equality. If these features
are strengthened, this adversity can be turned into
a stimulus for positive transformation and future growth
of the left movement in India.
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