|
What
does "Global Growth" actually Mean? |
Dec
10th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Looking at aggregate global economic growth obscures
important changes in the world economy, especially
if these are analysed using actual market exchange
rates. The recent period has seen a reassertion of
the western countries as major drivers of global growth,
and a relative decline of Asia.
|
|
The
COP29 Collapse |
Nov
26th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The collapse of COP29, slated as a climate finance
summit, should come as no surprise. Developed countries
had shown in multiple ways that when it comes to the
crunch they would walk away.
|
|
The
Geopolitics of the Natural Gas Trade |
Nov
13th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Changes in global natural gas trade have reflected
geopolitical alignments but these may shift, depending
on policies of incoming US President Donald Trump.
|
|
The
Angst over China's Slowdown |
Oct
29th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While the evidence that GDP growth in China has slowed
is clear, the dire predictions they have given rise
to are exaggerated.
|
|
Falling
Shares of Labour Income |
Oct
15th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The latest World Employment and Social Outlook Report
(update for September 2024) from the International
Labour Organisation highlights some disturbing trends.
|
|
Household
Debt Stress: Fear in the "good times" |
Oct
1st 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Growing concern about defaults on unsecured retail
loans reflects not just fear about the health of the
banking system as a whole, but about the impact that
such defaults could have on macroeconomic performance.
|
|
Africa-China
Economic Relations: The next phase |
Sep
17th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The FOCAC summit suggests that China is entering a
new phase of economic relations with Africa, with
more targeted investments reflecting changed global
realities.
|
|
The
Chinese Threat in Critical Minerals |
Sep
4th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
China's restrictions of a year ago on export of critical
materials may not have yet been disruptive. But the
speculative price increases they have triggered could
explain renewed concerns about supply.
|
|
The
Crisis of Youth Unemployment |
Aug
20th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Youth unemployment is an urgent problem with tragic
consequences. The latest labour force survey data
from the NSSO indicates how severe this is in urban
India, especially in some states.
|
|
Why
do Domestic Food Prices keep going up when Global Prices
Fall? |
Jul
24th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
After rising rapidly from early 2020, global food
prices have been falling from July 2022. But domestic
food prices have continued to rise, especially in
low income countries. We explore these trends and
the possible reasons.
|
|
The
Danger of a Retail Credit Boom |
Jul
9th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A persistent rise in the volume and share of lending
to the retail sector could lead to vulnerability in
a banking system that only recently overcame its bad
loan problem.
|
|
How
did Agricultural output Change under the Modi Government? |
Jun
25th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The problems in agriculture have been reflected in
slow growth of agricultural output in the years since
2011-12. Within this, the performance of particular
crops and particular states may provide some insights
into why cultivators have been upset with the Modi
government.
|
|
Does
the Savings Decline Drive Growth? |
Jun
12th 2024. C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In what may appear to be a paradox, a decline in the
net financial savings of the household sector in India
may be the factor sustaining the growth it records.
|
|
Making
Sense of Consumption Expenditure |
May
28th 2024. C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Trends in consumption expenditure confirm the evidence
of increased inequality and point to the constraints
to future growth posed by the lack of expansion of
a mass market for consumption goods.
|
|
Services
Exports as Growth Engine |
May
14th 2024. C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The rise in India's services exports has encouraged
the view that this is reflective of India’s pursuit
of an alternative trajectory of development. The evidence
does not support that view.
|
|
Water
Flowing Upwards: Net financial flows from developing countries |
Apr
30th 2024. C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Both private and public sources of capital have been
disturbingly procyclical for low and middle income
countries, forcing them to become net providers of
financial resources to the North and to multilateral
institutions.
|
|
The
True Face of "Aid" |
Apr
16th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A spike in Overseas Development Assistance flows from
OECD members is not a departure from a long history
of ODA levels that have fallen far short of a 1970
promise. It is a revelation of what "aid"
really is.
|
|
Recent
Structural Change in the Indian Economy |
Apr
4th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The India Employment Report points to worrying tendencies
in terms of structural change in the Indian economy,
especially in recent years.
|
|
On
the Fuss over US Interest Rates |
Mar
19th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Discussions on macroeconomic policy in the US and
other high income countries tend to focus overwhelmingly
on central banks' interest rate adjustments, with
little clarity on what impact those changes have domestically.
|
|
Making
Sense of the Latest Consumption Survey |
Mar
5th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even though the latest consumption survey is not comparable
with earlier surveys, and the full data have not yet
been released, some preliminary results point to significant
inequality in consumption.
|
|
Maldives:
Debt and dependence |
Feb
20th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Maldives is vulnerable to debt distress as the IMF
suggests, but that is not a problem to be resolved
only by the Maldives government but by an international
community that has aggravated the island nation's
vulnerability.
|
|
The
Mystery about Investment |
Feb
6th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A decade of decline and stagnation in investment rates
is at odds with the official narrative of a resurgent
and buoyant economy, which is held back by the demand
effects of rising inequality.
|
|
World
Economy: Out of control |
Jan
23rd 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As fears of inflation recede, the prospect of a medium-term
slowdown in the global economy looms. The problem
is that global leaders have lost control of both macroeconomic
policy and the economy.
|
|
The
Unpaid Workers who are Described as "Employed" |
Jan
9th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A significant part of the recent increase in work
participation rates is actually because of more unpaid
workers being included in the category of "employed".
The true increase in paid employment is marginal,
and still bellow the rates of more than a decade ago.
|
|
Another
COP-out |
Dec
26th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The claim that COP28 marked a significant step forward
in the battle against climate change is not corroborated
by the willingness of the developed countries to commit
the needed finance.
|
|
The
Unbalanced World Economy |
Dec
12th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Financial imbalances that impact on countries' net
international investment positions are now much more
important than current account imbalances, in determining
debt stress.
|
|
The
Climate Finance Shortfall |
Nov
28th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The focus on fossil fuel phase out and net zero target
dates is geared to diverting attention from the responsibility
of developed countries to provide higher climate finance
flows to developing countries.
|
|
New
Estimates of Offshore Wealth held by Indians |
Nov
14th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
New estimates of offshore wealth held globally allow
for a more granular examination of wealth held abroad
by India residents. The results are disturbing—and
raise questions about why Indian tax authorities are
not doing more to prevent this.
|
|
Climate
Finance: The IMF's stance |
Oct
31st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The IMF's stance on modes of financing the climate
mitigation and adaptation effort amounts to a call
to absolve developed countries of their historical
responsibility.
|
|
Faultlines
in the Jobs Data |
Oct
19th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The apparent fall in the unemployment rate shown by
recent data hides major areas of concern in India's
employment pattern.
|
|
India's
BoP Story |
Oct
3rd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Despite recording chronic and rising trade deficits,
India's balance of payments looks stable and resilient.
But that stability may prove to be the source of new
problems.
|
|
The
Injustice Contained in Global Fiscal Indicators |
Sep
21st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Many low and middle income countries face sovereign
debt crises even though they have been much more fiscally
prudent than advanced economies through the Covid-19
pandemic and after.
|
|
The
Anatomy of Inflation |
Sep
5th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A bad monsoon and possible decline in agricultural
production threaten to accelerate ongoing inflation
in India, particularly because of increased speculation
in the market for food.
|
|
Global
Food Prices in "the Rest of the World" |
Aug
22nd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
When food prices in global trade rise, they go up
across the world. But the opposite movement of falling
trade prices does not necessarily lead to falls in
low and middle income countries. We show how this
plays out with wheat prices.
|
|
The
Recurring Crisis: Debt in the LICs |
Aug
8th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
To address the debt crisis in the LMICs and prevent
its recurrence, it is necessary to address the failure
of the international order to provide space for poor
countries to earn the foreign exchange needed to service
external debt.
|
|
The
Terrible Human Costs of Debt Service |
Jul
25th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Without urgent and effective action on debt relief,
fiscal pressures of debt service will cause low and
middle income countries to regress on important social
and economic indicators.
|
|
Addressing
Default: Lessons from an opaque experience |
Jul
11th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The decision to allow banks to settle with willful
defaulters and fraudsters reveals the actual stance
of the government on ‘rescuing’ corporate debtors.
The hype around the IBC conceals that.
|
|
What
explains High Global Wheat Prices? |
Jun
27th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In the past few years, global wheat prices have moved
far away from "fundamentals" of demand and
supply. This can be explained by other factors like
market concentration and financial activity in commodities
markets, which take advantage of temporary or perceived
supply shocks.
|
|
On
the FDI Route to Manufacturing Success |
Jun
13th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In its efforts to boost India's underdeveloped manufacturing
sector, the government has been emphasising the role
of foreign direct investment. But the strategy is
not working.
|
|
Is
India's Rural Economy Diversifying? |
May
30th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Official survey data on employment suggest that recent
processes of rural employment diversification could
already be reversing because of the lack of other
viable employment opportunities beyond farming.
|
|
India's
GST Experience |
May
16th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The practice of making much of any small increase
in aggregate GST collections only serves to divert
attention from the fact that this tax regime has not
delivered and precipitated a fiscal crisis in many
states.
|
|
The
Potential of Tax Reform in Latin America |
May
2nd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Recent changes in some Latin American tax regimes,
especially in Colombia, provide useful pointers for
taxation strategies in other developing countries.
|
|
World
Economy: The long recession |
Apr
19th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The world economic outlook released in time for the
recently concluded spring meetings of the World Bank
and the IMF presents a gloomy picture. Global GDP
growth is expected to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022
to 2.8 percent in 2023, and recover only marginally
to 3.0 percent in 2024.
|
|
Self-employed
Workers in India |
Apr
5th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Self-employed workers in India—more than half the
workforce—have suffered especially badly in the last
few years. The official labour force survey data reveal
that, even after overall economic activity has supposedly
"recovered", their real incomes are generally
lower than they were just before the Covid-19 pandemic.
|
|
The
Changing Structure of Global Imbalances |
Mar
21st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The differences in performance between less developed
economies have tended to blur the North-South divide
in the global distribution of balance of payments
surpluses and deficits. But for most, that divide
remains a reality.
|
|
The
Covid-19 Pandemic and Wages of Casual Workers |
Mar
7th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Real wages of casual workers were already declining
before the Covid-19 pandemic, and fell sharply during
the pandemic. While they have recovered thereafter,
quarterly average wages in April-June 2022 were only
slightly above the pre-pandemic peak.
|
|
Pakistan's
Debt Crisis: No resolution in sight |
Feb
21st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The IMF cannot resolve Pakistan's debt crisis, though
it is influencing policy on the grounds that it can.
|
|
Fragilities
in India's Balance of Payments |
Feb
7th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The official Economic Survey ignores real economy
trends which need to be urgently addressed, as is
the case with emerging balance of payments fragilities.
|
|
India'
Remittance Lifeline |
Jan
24th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While the resilience of inwards remittance inflows
during the pandemic is a source of comfort for India
balance of payments, the sharp shift in the share
of different sources in 2020-21 is a cause for concern.
|
|
Inflation
in an Unequal World Economy: How the fed's policies are
doubly perverse for the global south |
Jan
16th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Tight monetary policies in rich countries obviously
affect people in the countries where they are applied,
but they also cause ripple effects across the world.
We were already in a very unequal world before the
most recent global price increases.
|
|
Social
Protection for the Self-employed |
Jan
10th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The preponderance of the self-employed in the labour
force in many countries makes conventional schemes
for ensuring social protection impossible to implement.
Innovative ways of ensuring a universal social protection
floor are required.
|
|
India's
Foreign Trade during the Ukraine War |
Dec
13th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Ukraine War and rising global prices of fuel have
had major effects on the external trade of many developing
countries. But how much of India's poor trade performance
and growing trade deficit since January 2022 can be
attributed to such factors?.
|
|
India's
China-trade Challenge |
Nov
29th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A spike in India's imports from China and a widening
of the trade deficit it records with that country
points to fundamental weaknesses in India's industrial
development trajectory.
|
|
The
Monetary Policy fallout for Developing Countries |
Nov
15th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Coping with the adverse fallout of tighter monetary
policy in the advanced economies will require developing
country governments to shift from openness that increases
their own vulnerability to a more creative and flexible
approach that provides greater policy autonomy.
|
|
The
Continuing Tax Gift to Big Indian Companies |
Oct
4th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Indian tax system is heavily weighted in favour
of large corporations, and has become even more so
in recent times.
|
|
Food
Prices and Hunger in Low and Middle Income Countries |
Sep
20th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The major food crisis now emerging in much of the
world is not about supply shortages. It reflects ologopolistic
and speculative behaviour in global food markets,
along with falling purchasing power and currency depreciation
in low and middle income countries.
|
|
Bonds
of Debt |
Sep
6th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The rush of sovereign bondholders to less developed
countries was seen as an opportunity by many governments.
But increased dependence on those bonds has not only
contributed to a debt crisis but made resolution near
impossible.
|
|
Will
the GST Regime Fail? |
Aug
23rd 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
At the end of the five-year period in which states
were being compensated for shortfalls in GST revenues
relative to targets, they are on the verge of a fiscal
crisis. That could spell the end of the GST regime.
|
|
What's
Really Happening with Exchange Rates? |
Aug
9th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Exchange rates have behaved very differently from
what many pundits predicted at the start of the Ukraine
war. This requires careful reconsideration of the
various factors that determine their movement.
|
|
Capital
Flight from Emerging Markets |
Jul
26th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The recent exit of portfolio capital from emerging
markets reveals the vulnerability built up over the
years when excess liquidity originating in the developed
countries spilt over into global markets.
|
|
Are
Global Commodity Prices Responsible for the Current Crises
in Emerging Markets |
Jul
12th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Food and fuel price increases have wreaked a lot of
damage and generated inflationary pressures in many
economies. However, the current debt problems of so
many developing countries cannot be blamed on these
higher prices.
|
|
The
Rupee's Decline |
Jun
28th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Over the last three years the Indian rupee has experienced
continuous decline, with bouts of sharp depreciation
influenced by multiple factors but led principally
by capital outflows.
|
|
Why
are Global Wheat Prices Rising so much? |
Jun
14th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The FAO's recent wheat production and utilization
forecasts indicate that the focus on the war in Ukraine
as the sole driver of explosive global price trends
is misplaced and ill-advised.
|
|
Misreading
FDI Numbers |
May
31st 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The government's celebration of record levels of FDI
inflows in 2021-22 as indication of the strength of
the Indian economy misreads the numbers that point
to several underlying weaknesses in India's external
account.
|
|
Who
Controls Renewable Energy Technology? |
May
17th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The concentration of technology and tacit knowledge
related to renewable energy can emerge as an additional
constraint to its wider adoption in many low and middle
income countries.
|
|
Roots
of the Sri Lankan Debt Trap |
May
3rd 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Having embraced neoliberal reform in the late 1970s,
Sri Lanka had privileged access to large borrowing
from the IMF and private financial markets. Exploiting
that privilege has proved to be a poison pill.
|
|
Panic
about Petrol Prices |
Apr
19th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Governments of rich countries are the ones showing
the greatest panic in responding to rising global
oil prices, but the relative price of petrol is already
much higher is low and middle income countries with
bigger poor populations.
|
|
Unwarranted
Confidence |
Apr
5th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The complacency generated by India's low external
debt exposure and large foreign reserves ignores the
composition and character of that exposure.
|
|
So
what’s the Actual Rate of Inflation? |
Mar
22nd 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The inflation rates according to the Wholesale Price
Index and the Consumer Price Index have diverged substantially
in the recent past. In addition to weighting differences,
this could reflect underlying macroeconomic changes
in the Indian economy.
|
|
Collateral
Damage: Ukraine invasion and energy markets |
Mar
8th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has roiled energy markets.
All sides lose. The US and its allies because of energy
shortages and inflation; Russia because oil is crucial
to its economic performance.
|
|
National
Income during the Pandemic |
Feb
22th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Claims of a robust recovery are undermined by the
quarterly national accounts data, which show weak
recovery in major sectors and levels of consumption
and investment still below pre-pandemic levels.
|
|
Public
Spending in India |
Jan
25th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
According to the government's own report to the IMF,
central government spending declined in the pandemic
year 2020-21.
|
|
Misleading
Picture of Household Wealth |
Jan
11th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Despite the collection of substantial information
on household asset holdings through the official Debt
and Investment Surveys, India still lacks an official
source of data that allows for reliable and meaningful
assessments of trends in the levels and distribution
of household wealth.
|
|
Fiscal
Stringency in a Time of Pandemic |
Dec
28th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The unjustifiable conservatism that characterised
the central government's fiscal stance in the first
pandemic year has persisted, worsening the impact
of the health emergency and imposing long-term costs
on the Indian people.
|
|
State
Finances: The looming crisis |
Dec
14th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Subject to a fiscal squeeze even before the economic
contraction that accompanied the Covid-19 pandemic,
state governments are now facing a fiscal crisis that
is bound to drag down the economy.
|
|
Carbon
Emissions and Climate Inequality |
Nov
30th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Current measures of climate responsibility understate
the emissions created by final demand, especially
in the advanced countries, because they ignore how
countries can "export carbon emissions"
through imports. But measures to address this through
trade protectionism will be counterproductive.
|
|
A
'Mini-cycle' in the Commodities Sphere? |
Nov
16th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Global commodity prices are rising, driven by the
revival in economic activity as the pandemic wanes,
supply constraints and new demand stemming from sources
such as the energy transition. The question is whether
the surge will be transitory or persist for a long
time.
|
|
The
Global Divergence gets Bigger |
Nov
2nd 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Inter-country economic inequalities have been greatly
accentuated by the pandemic, to a level that is likely
to become unsustainable and generate significant geopolitical
tensions.
|
|
Mixed
Signals on the Inflation Front |
Oct
19th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While the world grapples with inflation, September
2021 figures from India seem to suggest that consumer
prices are in deceleration mode. But this may just
be a lull before an impending storm.
|
|
How
Emerging Markets Hurt Poor Countries |
Oct
14th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Three decades of financial globalization have led
to massive income and asset inequalities in the US
and Europe, and have had worse impacts in the developing
world. This inequality is not a bug in the system,
but a result of how global financial markets have
been allowed to function.
|
|
What
has the Trade "War" between the United States
and China Achieved? |
Oct
5th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The US-China trade war has not affected the continued
increase in the US trade deficit. But the real purpose
is control of frontier technologies.
|
|
How
Important is MSP-based Procurement |
Sep
21st 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Despite its many shortcomings, the minimum support
price-based procurement regime is gaining in terms
of farmer, crop and geographical coverage. The benefits
from the regime that underlie this tendency explain
why fear that it may be dismantled triggers protest.
|
|
How
Dynamic is Global Capitalism? |
Sep
7th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Capitalism is conventionally portrayed as a dynamic
system driven by private investment sustained by forces
of competition. However, evidence from the globalisation
years suggests that neither growth nor the levels
and pattern of investment support that view.
|
|
The
Interlinkages between Paid and Unpaid Labour: A homage
to Krishna Bharadwaj |
Aug
26th 2021. Jayati Ghosh |
|
The gendered division of labour in India creates much
greater involvement in unpaid labour for women, which
in turn has pervasive implications for their involvement
in paid work. Indeed, the interlinkage between the
two is so profound that it is impossible to understand
trends in one without assessing trends in the other.
|
|
The
Prospect of a Telecom Monopoly |
Aug
24th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
With Vodafone-Idea threatening to throw in the towel,
India's telecom business is headed for a private sector
duopoly that shares the market with an emaciated public
sector. But matters may not stop there.
|
|
The
Urgent Need for an Urban Employment Guarantee Scheme |
Aug
10th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Millions of urban Indian residents are struggling
without livelihood opportunities, especially younger
workers. A national urban employment scheme needs
to be put in place immediately.
|
|
Interrogating
the Holy Grail of Productivity Growth |
Aug
2nd 2021. Jayati Ghosh |
|
One thing most economists agree on regardless of their
ideological persuasion, is the importance of productivity
increases. Yet, of all economic concepts widely in
use, that of aggregate productivity may be the most
problematic and full of conceptual and measurement
holes.
|
|
The
Forex Bonanza |
Jul
27th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A spike in India's foreign exchange reserves is a
surprising feature of the period since March 2020
when the economy has been reeling under the damaging
effects of the pandemic. But that trend is no cause
for celebration.
|
|
Is
Emerging Asia in Retreat? |
Jul
13th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Financial liberalisation that was meant to mobilise
more resources for domestic investment in emerging
markets in the 'dynamic' East Asian region has led
to exactly the opposite.
|
|
A
Non-performing Code for Bad Debt |
Jun
29th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code has been officially
hailed as a powerful instrument to resolve defaulted
corporate debt quickly and efficiently. But five years
after the code was enacted, the evidence establishes
that claim to be just a myth.
|
|
The
Impasse in External Debt Relief |
Jun
15th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The impending debt crisis in several developing countries
is spread across low- and middle-income countries,
and complicated by the growing role of private players.
Yet global leaders show few signs of urgency or adequate
action to deal with it.
|
|
The
Inadequate Food Safety Net |
Jun
1st 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The major plank of the Centre's safety net during
periods of lockdown necessitated by the Covid pandemic
has been the provision of free foodgrain to targeted
beneficiaries. But both in terms of need and state
capacity, that effort has been limited.
|
|
The
Hunger Pandemic |
May
18th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A survey conducted in October 2020 shows widespread
hunger across 11 states. Immediate relief measures
are urgently required, since matters would have got
much worse since then.
|
|
Asia's
Post-pandemic Encounter with Foreign Finance |
May
4th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Though displaying trends similar to other Asian emerging
markets, foreign portfolio capital inflows and market
performance in India have distinctive features that
give cause for concern.
|
|
The
Growing Perils of India's open Capital Account |
Apr
20th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
India's increasingly open capital account is facilitating
large gross and net inflows of foreign capital into
the country. But while this does not translate into
increased real investment, it imposes a large foreign
exchange cost on the economy.
|
|
The
Long Search for Stability: Financial cooperation to address
global risks in the East Asian region |
Apr
16th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
After the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis, the region
recognized the need for a regional financial safety
net independent of the United States and the IMF to
mitigate future crises. The emergence of China as
a regional and global power, with its independence
from the US, improve the prospects for it.
|
|
China's
Dash for Technological Leadership |
Apr
6th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
China's transformation, from being the manufacturing
hub of the world to being a global hub for R&D
and innovation, poses a challenge that attracts adverse
attention from the rest of the world.
|
|
Worrying
Spike in Global Food Prices |
Mar
10th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Supply side disruptions combine with stockpiling and
speculation to drive up global food prices. With low
income earners still to recover from the Covid-induced
crisis, the trend is a cause for concern.
|
|
The
Political Economy of Covid-19 Vaccines |
Mar
6th 2021. Jayati Ghosh |
|
Blatant vaccine grab by rich countries; protection
of patent rights by governments in advanced countries
and the use of vaccine distribution to promote 'soft
power' have exposed and intensified global inequalities;
but a pandemic can be overcome only when it is overcome
everywhere.
|
|
Hunger,
again |
Feb
23rd 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even before Covid-19, global hunger was increasing
and the world was no longer on track to meet the SDG
of eliminating hunger by 2030. Matters have got much
worse since then.
|
|
A
Market gone awry |
Feb
8th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Defying all logic, India's equity market has been
experiencing a heady and prolonged boom in a year
when the real economy contracted. A correction is
inevitable.
|
|
Wrecking
Fiscal Federalism |
Jan
26th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The central government's cynical and expropriative
attitude to the states has meant the wrecking of fiscal
federalism, with worrying consequences for India's
future.
|
|
Prepare
for a Surge in Global Inequality |
Jan
12th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The differential ability, resulting from preexisting
global inequality, to address the Covid crisis with
increased government spending is likely to substantially
worsen those inequalities.
|
|
India’s
External Sector during the Pandemic |
Dec
29th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Weakness in India’s external sector cannot be used
as an excuse for the lack of increased fiscal spending
by the Indian government.
|
|
Bilateral
Swaps in China's Global Presence |
Dec
15th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
China's use of yuan-denominated central bank swaps,
while enhancing its influence, is a source of support
for developing countries in an unequal international
order.
|
|
Unaffordable
Education in the New India |
Dec
1st 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
An official survey reveals how education spending
has gone up sharply in India, forming a huge financial
burden on households and excluding the majority of
the population from higher education.
|
|
Discrimination
and Bias in Economics, and Emerging Responses |
Nov
19th 2020. Jayati Ghosh |
|
Jayati Ghosh discusses the forms of discrimination
and bias that are rampant in economics and enlists
some networks that are challenging the rigidities
and power structures within the mainstream discipline.
|
|
The
Remittance Shock |
Nov
17th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Dependence on remittances is proving to be an additional
source of vulnerability among low and middle income
countries in Covid times. But not all are affected
to the same degree: and those more dependent and facing
larger losses are badly hurt.
|
|
Developing
Asia: The growing divergence between China and the rest |
Nov
3rd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Growing divergence in economic performance between
China and the rest of Asia indicates both reduced
regional integration and setbacks in some of China’s
Asian neighbours.
|
|
Covid
Debt and the Tax Paradigm |
Oct
20th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis government
debt has been on the rise in countries across the
world. When the crisis recedes, recovery would depend
on the extent to which governments choose to finance
repayment with new taxation of the rich.
|
|
Time
use in India |
Oct
6th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The results of the time use survey of the NSSO reveal
expected but nonetheless striking results about how
men and women in India spend their time very differently,
with women hugely burdened by unpaid work.
|
|
A
Misleading Signal from the Trade Front |
Sep
22nd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The emergence of a trade surplus in India's balance
of payments over the first five months of 2020-21
does not signal what it would in normal times. A closer
analysis of the trade data traces the surplus to the
behaviour of an economy in recession.
|
|
Central
Government Fiscal Stance during the Pandemict |
Sep
8th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Fiscal policy in India has been very timid during
the period of the most brutal and inefficient (in
terms of public health outcomes) lockdowns in the
world. Unless this is changed, the economy may plummet
further.
|
|
Finance
and the Economy: Fixing the disconnect |
Aug
25th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
To treat the divergence in the performance of stock
markets and the real economy as purely externally
driven and only capable of self-correction is to avoid
taking much-needed action.
|
|
Covid-19:
Why is India doing worse than other South Asian countries? |
Aug
11th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A comparison with India's South Asian neighbours points
to significant shortfalls in the management of the
Covid pandemic in India. This is also the result of
the relative long term neglect of health provision
in India.
|
|
Can
India stay with GST? |
Jul
28th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Three years after introduction of the GST, there are
no clear signs that this is a regime that can deliver
revenue growth of a kind that can justify persisting
with it.
|
|
Developing
Asia's External Debt Concerns |
Jul
14th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Developing Asia's external debt can emerge as a major
vulnerability not so much because of the volume of
debt, but because of its composition, especially the
greater reliance on short term debt and foreign holders
of debt securities.
|
|
It
is High Time to Tweak India's FDI Rules |
Jul
13th 2020. Smitha Francis |
|
Continuing to welcome FDI without qualifications will
further weaken the domestic capabilities and sovereignty
of India. The government instead extend the new rule
for FDI screening to all countries defined in terms
of livelihood and data security.
|
|
Corona
Pandemic, Sudden Visibility of Migrant Workers and the
Indian Economy |
Jul
6th 2020. Byasdeb Dasgupta |
|
In a three-dimensional crisis, of migrants, of pandemic
and of the Indian Economy, the sudden visibiliy of
migrants is due to the threat they pose to public
health. What remains to be seen is whether the voice
of the most vulnerable section will be heard or not.
|
|
Economic
Contraction and the Fiscal Stance of the Indian Government |
Jun
16th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Modi government is pushing the Indian economy
into further contraction through its completely inappropriate
conservative fiscal stance.
|
|
The
Worrisome Return of Capital |
Jun
2nd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In April 2020, while 'emerging market economies' remained
steeped in the Covid-induced crisis, in a paradoxical
turn, equity markets in some of these countries experienced
a recovery. That may not be a good sign.
|
|
COVID-19
Lockdown: Impact on agriculture and rural economy |
Jun
2nd 2020, Vikas Rawal, Manish Kumar, Ankur Verma and Jesim
Pais |
|
Lack
of planning and preparation by the Central government
for tackling the COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a massive
blow to India’s rural economy, causing enormous hardships
to working people and further aggravating food insecurity
in the country.
|
|
COVID-19
Lockdown: The crisis of rural employment |
May
21st 2020. Vikas Rawal and Manish Kumar |
|
There is a huge demand for employment generation because
of widespread loss of rural livelihoods under lockdown.
Yet, for about two months, most MGNREGS workers have
not been provided any employment due to poor fiscal
situation of the State governments.
|
|
COVID-19
Lockdown: Impact on agriculture |
May
21st 2020. Vikas Rawal and Manish Kumar |
|
Disruptions caused by the lockdown have resulted in
considerable additional economic burden on farmers
because of higher costs, increased debt burden, inability
to sell the produce at reasonable prices and crop
losses. Yet the government’s response to such agricultural
distress has been nothing short of a mockery till
now.
|
|
New
Fronts in the US-China Trade War |
May
19th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As the world grapples with the fall-out of the Covid-crisis,
the Trump administration is ramping up its protectionist
rhetoric vis-à-vis China. If this leads to
new sanctions it would not help the US but worsen
the Covid-induced trade crisis.
|
|
Outsourcing
the Stimulus |
May
18th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Aware of its own inaction, the government has outsourced
a large part of sorely needed stimulus to RBI and
public sector banks. But the latter's aversion to
risk is creating multiple roadblocks and it is time
the government directly steps in.
|
|
How
to Build the Global Green New Deal |
May
12th 2020. Jayati Ghosh |
|
The sharp and rapid increase of inequality due to
the Covid-19 pandemic is driving home the urgency
of internationalism. Jayati Ghosh explains how we
can change the global economic architecture to enable
a Global Green New Deal.
|
|
Contours
of the Covid-crisis |
May
5th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Early evidence shows that official response to the
Covid-induced crisis in the US and Europe may lengthen
recession. If the needed fiscal effort is not put
in place even a delayed recovery may prove elusive.
|
|
It
Takes Two to Tango: Can monetary stimulus compensate for
an inadequate fiscal stimulus in India? |
May
4th 2020. Parthapratim Pal & Partha Ray |
|
Monetary policy can only make credit cheaper, it cannot
bring money into the hands of workers. It cannot compensate
for a fiscal stimuli, especially when India is in
a liquidity trap. For such an unprecedented crisis,
fiscal spending has been highly inadequate.
|
|
When
the US and India Together Failed the Developing World |
Apr
21st 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
India has betrayed the developing world by blocking
a proposal for the IMF to issue new SDRs, which would
have provided much-needed liquidity at a time of crisis.
|
|
Footloose
Capital and the Covid Shock |
Apr
7th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The flight of footloose portfolio capital from India
has attracted attention because of its impact on stock
indices and the value of the rupee. But the bigger
danger is of a debt shock that can be more damaging
for the corporate sector.
|
|
COVID-19
and Indian Economy: From rolling down the hill to falling
off the cliff |
Apr
2nd 2020. Jayati Ghosh |
|
As the pandemic unfolds, the Indian economy is falling
off a cliff. There is an immediate need for massive
public spending beyond conventional fiscal standards.
There is also a need for a global plan for significant
debt reduction, massive increase in global liquidity,
more aid and moratoriums to survive this crisis.
|
|
Informal
Workers in the Time of Coronavirus |
Mar
24th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
State policies to deal with the economic fallout of
the Covid-19 pandemic tend to address financial losses
of companies. But the material impact is much worse
for informal workers who constitute the bulk of the
global workforce.
|
|
Where
are the Jobs for the Girls? |
Feb
26th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The recent labour force survey points to declines
in all forms of work performed by women, including
unpaid labour! Women are the worst casualties of the
employment crisis in India.
|
|
No
Escape from Low Growth |
Feb
11th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Although unresolved trade tensions and shocks like
the coronavirus epidemic are valid concerns for the
world economy, the low growth syndrome that policy
has not addressed predates these new concerns.
|
|
Government
Finances 2019-20 |
Jan
28th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
After last years' experience of fudged fiscal statements,
Union Budget numbers are suspect. The fear is that
falling revenues will once again lead to reduced public
spending, a disastrous trend for the economy.
|
|
Revisiting
the NBFC Crisis |
Jan
13th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Even while the effort to resolve the crisis of NPAs
was underway, India's financial sector was overwhelmed
by failures of large non-bank financial companies.
Apart from poor financial management and downright
fraud, there were structural reasons why these institutions
accumulated bad assets, which are often ignored.
|
|
JG
Interview with Sampath- The Hindu |
Jan
7th 2020. |
|
In an interview with The Hindu, Jayati Ghosh talks
about her life experiences, her views about global
economic slowdown and the role of fiscal deficit in
resolving demand scarcity, and the importance of JNU
within a system of crony capitalism.
|
|
India
is failing her Young Women even in Terms of Work |
Dec
31st 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Labour force and work participation rates are low
among young women across India, but the 2017-18 labour
force survey shows that rates in almost all states
have fallen even further, pointing to particularly
adverse women labour market conditions.
|
|
The
Crisis in Manufacturing |
Dec
17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The slowdown in registered manufacturing draws attention
to the structural crisis afflicting the Indian economy,
which is both generalised and deep.
|
|
What
Really Happened to Public Spending in 2018-19? |
Dec
3rd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Faced with dwindling revenues in 2018-19, the government
chose to discreetly slash expenditure, with burden
of the cuts falling disproportionately on sectors
of social and developmental importance and on the
states.
|
|
When
Evidence is Anti-national |
Nov
27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The government's decision to hold back results of
the official consumer expenditure survey is another
move on its part to suppress information indicative
of poor economic performance under its watch.
|
|
Household
Savings in Troubled Times |
Nov
19th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
"Financial uncertainty and slowing income growth
are driving household savings out of bank deposits
and increasing reliance on borrowings from NBFCs.
With NBFCs under stress this can lead to a recession
unless measures are taken to stimulate demand."
|
|
The
Changing Nature of Public Employment |
Nov
5th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Indian labour force surveys indicate an increase in
public employment, but very little of this is increase
in good quality jobs. Instead, most new jobs are of
underpaid women workers without proper conditions.
|
|
Liberalising
Tenancy or Grabbing Land of the Poor? |
Nov
4th 2019, Vikas Rawal and Vaishali Bansal |
|
The 2016 Report of the Haque Committee has proposed
liberalization of tenancy market on grounds of efficient
land utilization in favour of small landowners. But
leasing is seldom done by small to big farmers and
owning even a small piece of land provides economic
security to the rural poor. Such provisions will only
facilitate grabbing of land of the poor by resource-rich
landlords and capitalist farmers.
|
|
RCEP
and Make in India dreams |
Oct
31st 2019, Smitha Francis |
|
In the absence of strategic policy support that help
build up indigenous capabilities and create the incentives
for localisation, extensive liberalization through
RCEP will only worsen domestic production, lower export
and FDI flows and compromise national security for
India.
|
|
The
Burden of Public Spending |
Oct
10th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
"Central governments' tightening control on fiscal
resources is preventing state governments from undertaking
the much-needed public spending which have recently
propped up economic activity."
|
|
Bank
Credit Post-demonetisation |
Sep
12th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Demonetisation further added to the problems of Indian
banking in the medium term.
|
|
Troubling
Features of the GST Regime |
Aug
27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The Goods and Services Tax regime appears to have
reduced the resource generating capacity of the states
and contributed to worsening inter-state inequality.
|
|
The
IMF’s Latest Victims |
Aug
14th 2019, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Despite recognising the damaging effects of austerity
on Greece's economy, the IMF has made the same mistakes
in its subsequent deals with Argentina and Ecuador.
|
|
Developing
Asia needs a New Economic Paradigms |
Aug
14th 2019, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Developing Asia would be a major beneficiary of a
Global Green New Deal based on an extensive role for
public investment. Trying to incentivise private investment,
as proposed by OECD and G20, is unlikely to work.
|
|
External
Debt in Asia: Growing pains |
Aug
13th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
External debt is emerging as a potential concern for
many Asian developing countries, even for those whose
aggregate external debt to GDP ratios do not appear
to be large. This is because of the growing importance
of private bond holders in such debt, even as capital
flows to the region turn more volatile.
|
|
India's
withering Public Employment |
Jul
30th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Government's strategy of leaving public employment
posts vacant to save on the potential wage bill is
deeply irresponsible and unjust.
|
|
The
Exploitation Time Bomb |
Jul
18th 2019, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The self-reinforcing pattern of high profits, low
investment, and rising inequality poses a threat not
only to economic growth, but also to democracy, argues
Jayati Ghosh.
|
|
The
Structure of Corporate Finance |
Jul
17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
New flow-of-funds data point not to a change in financing
pattern of the corporate sector but to the depressed
investment environment in the economy.
|
|
The
Debate over Inequlity |
Jul
8th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Prabhat Patnaik points out that while the debate over
inequality has become hotter elsewhere in the world,
in India, there is very little noise about it despite
a massive rise in inequality after economic liberalisation.
|
|
The
Bogey of Currency Manipulation |
Jun
18th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Which emerging markets have seen significant depreciation
of their exchange rates? And should “currency manipulation”
be blamed for that?
|
|
Disruption
in the World of Trade |
Jun
6th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
World trade is slowing. While the US triggered trade
war with China is part of the explanation, the real
driver is a loss of momentum in the world economy.
|
|
Warning
Signs from External Trade |
May
21st 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh points out that
India's rising gold imports are primarily responsible
for its growing trade deficit; so far no action has
been taken by the Modi government to prevent these
unnecessary imports.
|
|
Gendered
Labour Markets and Capitalist Accumulations |
May
17th 2019, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Jayati Ghosh discusses how social constructions of
gender affect macroeconomic processes, for example
through varying work participation rates and migration
patterns.
|
|
The
Spectre of Higher Oil Prices |
May
7th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The decision of the US government under Trump to end
the waivers from sanctions on imports of oil from
Iran that were given to eight countries could trigger
a spike in oil prices. That can have adverse implications
for India's balance of payments stability and inflation
trends.
|
|
China's
Trade with other Asian Countries |
Apr
23rd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
China's trade with Asian developing countries is more
significant than ever - but not always in ways that
benefit them.
|
|
Vanishing
Green Shoots |
Apr
9th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Governments and central banks that were upbeat about
global economic recovery are turning pessimistic,
making this one more episode of a green shoot that
died young.
|
|
Why
is South Asia Performing so Badly on the SDGs? |
Mar
27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
High inequality in the South Asian region is a crucial
factor responsible for the region's poor performance
on the SDGs.
|
|
Migration
and Remittances: The gender angle |
Mar
7th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The gender distribution of migrant workers has a macroeconomic
impact - it affects both the level and the volatility
of remittance inflows, as the Asian experience shows.
|
|
Is
the Banking Sector out of the Woods yet? |
Feb
26th 2019, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta |
|
The NDA regime has been characterised by a steep rise
in NPAs and frauds, and a misguided view of ‘corrective
action’.
|
|
The
Skewed Structure of India's Bond Market |
Feb
11th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In trying to deal with large volumes of bad debt,
especially corporate debt owed to the banking system,
measures to activate the corporate debt market are
being pushed. But experience suggests that investors
are unlikely to bite.
|
|
Social
Responsibility of Intellectuals in Building Counter-Hegemonies |
Feb
4th 2019, Issa Shivji |
|
In a period of upsurge of fascism, narrow nationalism
and parochialism, Issa Shivji calls for the social
responsibility of intellectuals to construct a counter-hegemonic
project that would resonate with the lives of the
vast majority.
|
|
The
Failed Promise of Employment |
Jan
17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Attempts by the Modi government to avoid scrutiny
on employment generation by suspending or delaying
official statistics and trying to use inappropriate
and unreliable indicators are bound to fail. Independent
assessments point to the dismal job situation in the
country.
|
|
Remittances
as Saviour |
Dec
18th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Remittances from non-resident Indian workers, especially
in the Gulf, have helped to conceal the failure of
liberalization to deliver the promised export boom.
|
|
The
Emerging International Regime |
Dec
10th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
world capitalist crisis of reduced aggregate demand
and the protectionism of the U.S. has resulted in
a reduced export demand for world economies. Third
world countries face enlarged trade and current account
deficits, to overcome these deficits, countries like
India will have to take measures on their own level.
|
|
Contemporary
Capitalism and the World of Work |
Dec
4th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Imperialism
remains essential to capitalism in all its phases, although
its instruments may change from one phase of capitalism
to another. When we incorporate imperialism in the Marx's
analysis of the dynamics of capitalism, we resolve the
puzzle of fall in per capita annual total (both direct
and indirect) cereal consumption despite rise in per
capita real income. It is because of rise in world poverty
along with rise in per capita real incomes. |
|
Is
Shadow Banking a Serious Threat in Emerging Markets? |
Dec
4th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Is
shadow banking in emerging markets the next big trouble
spot for the global financial system? Or is this problem
over-hyped? |
|
A
Curious Divergence |
Nov
20th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
An
inadequately analysed but striking divergence in the
services sector's contribution to GDP and employment
growth is a pointer to the weaknesses inherent in India's
services-led growth model. |
|
Neo-liberalism
and the Diffusion of Development |
Nov
19th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
cycles of ebbs and flows under capitalism result in
the behaviour of capitalists alternating between riskless
and adventurers when it comes to investments. As the
ongoing capitalist recession continues and even gets
accentuated, as finance begins to flow back increasingly
to the metropolis as is already happening, investment
and growth rate in the third world will dry up to an
even greater extent than in the metropolis. |
|
A
Heart-rending Episode |
Nov
14th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Bengal famine of 1943 in which 3 million persons died
was the direct result of the escalation of British war
expenditure on the eastern front. Such massive loss
of life could have been avoided if the manner of financing
war expenditure had been different. The war expenditure
on the eastern front was financed by a "profit
inflation" generating "forced savings".
Financing war expenditure this way imposed a heavy burden,
especially on the poor people of rural Bengal who were
net food purchasers. The forced reduction in consumption
they had to undergo, entailed a drastic reduction in
their foodgrain intake, and hence the famine. |
|
India's
Wealthy Barely Pay Taxes |
Nov
6th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
India
has one of the most unequal wealth distributions in
the world. The annual Global Wealth Report indicates
that wealth inequality in India is only slightly below
Russia, which is widely recognised to be the most unequal.
Data shows that the richest are paying a falling share
of the income taxes. The inability to tax high net worth
individuals – or to collect corporation tax from profitable
companies as expected – in turn means that the government
has turned to relying more and more on indirect taxation
which is much more regressive and puts the burden of
raising fiscal resources onto common people. |
|
Is
"Formalisation" Possible? |
Oct
23rd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
clamour for 'formalising' non-agricultural economic
activity assumes that the unorganised sector is an early
and backward 'stage' in the organisation of economic
activity. In practice the unorganised sector exists
because organised employment fails to grow. |
|
Hype
and Facts on Free Trade |
Oct
10th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
In
the light Trump's tariffs that are frightening US corporations
and European and North American allies along with Japan
and China, a report by IMF, World Bank and WTO have
produced Reinvigorating Trade and Inclusive Growth.
While persisting on "trade reform", the report
fails to recognise the arguments about the distribution
of gains from trade. In contrast, the evidence-based
arguments presented in the UNCTAD's Trade and Development
Report 2018 report are telling. |
|
India's
External Vulnerability |
Sep
26th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
the rise in oil prices explains the sudden deterioration
of the current account balance in India's external payments,
it also signals the vulnerability to inevitable shocks
that is inherent in the changing structure of India's
external trade relations. |
|
GST:
One more NDA failure |
Sep
24th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
From
the beginning of its implementation it was clear that
under the new tax regime it was unfeasible to have a
single tax on all commodities, given the inequality
in the country. The multi-tax structure adapted does
not simplify the system much, and only promises to do
away with the cascading effects of the erstwhile excise
duties and sales taxes. |
|
The
Real Problem with Free Trade |
Sep
11th 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even
if free trade is ultimately broadly beneficial, the
fact remains that as trade has become freer, inequality
has worsened. One major reason for this is that current
global trade rules have enabled a few large firms to
capture an ever-larger share of value-added, at a massive
cost to economies, workers, and the environment. |
|
Who's
Manipulating China's Exchange Rate? |
Sep
11th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Contrary
to western perceptions, the Chinese government's attempts
to manage the exchange rate over the past few years
have actually been directed to shoring up its value,
rather than forcing depreciation. |
|
Finance
versus the People |
Aug
27th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
There
is a fundamental contradiction between democracy and
neo-liberal capitalism. This contradiction can be seen
from the exuberance of the market with the removal of
a challenge to communal authoritarianism. |
|
Factory
Workers in India |
Aug
14th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
number of workers in the industrial factory sector in
India has grown since 2005-06, but other trends suggest
that the bargaining power of such workers remains low. |
|
Changes
in the Structure of Employment in India |
Aug
14th 2018, Vikas Rawal |
|
An
analysis of overall trends in the structure of employment,
differentiated between men and women, between rural
and urban workers, and across different sectors. With
an emphasis on using age-cohort analysis, the dynamics
of change in the employment structure are elucidated.
The paper looks at changes in the overall size of the
labour force and in work participation rates between
1993–94 and 2011–12 and talks about changes in employment
structure across different industries as well as impact
of improvement in educational attainment on employment
conditions of young workers. |
|
Institutional
Investors and Indian Markets |
Aug
1st 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
these uncertain times, equity markets in India seemed
to be protected from extreme volatility. But the factors
behind such resilience could also result in sudden stops. |
|
The
Devaluation of the Academia |
Jul
19th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
With
detrimental policy decisions, including the proposed
abolition of University Grants Commission, the targeting
of the academic environment of the country is indicating
a future of political control of and restricted freedom
in academia. This phenomenon is actively contributing
to the creation of a non-thinking society, something
India can ill afford at the moment. |
|
Did
Developing Countries Really Recover from the Global Crisis? |
Jul
17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
decade after the Global Financial Crisis, developing
countries still bear the scars in the form of lower
growth and lower investment rates. |
|
A
Legacy of Vulnerability |
Jul
12th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Outstanding
foreign bank claims that accumulated during the post-crisis
period of easy and cheap credit are a source of vulnerability
in the new environment. |
|
Has
Donald Trump Already Changed US Trade? |
Jun
19th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Donald
Trump is threatening to dismantle the current world
trading system, but in his first year US trading patterns
show strong continuity with the previous administration. |
|
Trump
Versus the Rest |
Jun
18th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Donald
Trump's protectionist stance at the G-7 summit is an
example of how disunited capitalist countries are on
a possible solution to the capitalist crisis. Because
of the position of the US economy, Trump can afford
to hold on to his protectionist policies while enlarging
the fiscal deficit. What is wrong about this strategy
is the possibility of long term repercussions, not just
for America but for the capitalist world as a whole. |
|
The
Push for Privatizing Banks |
Jun
11th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Historically,
the push for bank privatization which has gathered momentum
with a rising tendencies to take to neo-liberal policies.
The arguments for privatization have been put forward
time and time again, depending on economic circumstances.
As international finance capital demands outright privatization
to control financial resources and popularizes the conception
of social interest best served through free finance,
the NPA crisis in India has become the justification
today. |
|
The
Misplaced Growth Discourse |
Jun
5th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
close look at the nature of recent high growth rates
provides ample cause for caution. The growth shows absence
of dynamism and focus is on a few service sectors. It
is being driven by consumption expenditure rather than
investment which signals a probably fragile and unstable
growth process. |
|
Once
again, the Oil Price Scare |
May
22nd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
oil prices rise again, countries like India that had
benefited from relatively low prices in recent years
have to reconsider their growth and macroeconomic strategies. |
|
Curbing
Child Rape: Are we barking up the wrong tree? |
May
11th 2018, Anamitra Roychowdhury |
|
Raising
the quantum of punishment in the face of public outrage
will not work without fund allocation to improve police-civilian
ratio and building judicial infrastructure. |
|
Agricultural
Tenancy in Contemporary India |
May
9th 2018, Vaishali Bansal, Yoshifumi Usami and Vikas Rawal |
|
The
following report on "Agricultural Tenancy in Contemporary
India" involved a detailed assessment of the 48th
(1991-92), 59th (2002-03) and 70th (2012-13) rounds
of the NSSO Surveys of Land and Livestock Holdings (NSSOSLLH)
and includes detailed household-by-household corrections
to remove a number of inconsistencies in the data. The
main findings of the analysis point to significant marginalisation
of landless poor households. |
|
The
Return of a Housing Bubble |
May
8th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
household balance sheets are not rid of the debt accumulated
in the years preceding the 2008 crisis, there are signs
that purchases financed with new debt are leading to
a fresh bubble in property markets. |
|
The
Collapse in Developing Country Export |
Apr
25th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
period since 2010 has seen a collapse in developing
country exports, most of all in South-South trade. Developing
countries need to factor this into their future strategies. |
|
Plurality
in Teaching Macroeconomics |
Apr
18th 2018, Rohit Azad |
|
For
vibrant policy making, an open-minded academic engagement
between contrasting viewpoints is needed in macroeconomic
education. However, there does not even exist a textbook
that contrasts these contesting ideas in a tractable
manner. This pedagogical paper is an attempt to plug
that gap by presenting a comparative study across different
traditions in macroeconomics in a unified framework,
which can be developed into a semester-long intermediate-level
course. |
|
The
True Face of the Global Recovery |
Apr
11th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Optimistic assessments of the synchronised recovery
across the world economy ignore the factors driving
the weak upturn that make it fragile. |
|
How
Unequal are World Incomes? |
Mar
27th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Global inequality has reduced as income growth shifts
from the Northern countries to emerging markets like
the BRICS. But this shift is quite limited and has not
benefited the bulk of people in the developing world. |
|
Market
Fever and its Aftermath |
Mar
13th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As fears of a market downturn cloud sentiment, the factors
that led up to the bull run and their implications need
to be studied and learnt from. |
|
National
Income in India: What's really growing? |
Feb
28th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Recent income growth in India has been dominated by
sectors that do not reflect real physical output increases
– such as finance, insurance and real estate and public
administration and defence. |
|
Archives >> |
|