What does "Global Growth" actually Mean?
Dec 10th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Looking at aggregate global economic growth obscures important changes in the world economy, especially if these are analysed using actual market exchange rates. The recent period has seen a reassertion of the western countries as major drivers of global growth, and a relative decline of Asia.

The COP29 Collapse
Nov 26th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The collapse of COP29, slated as a climate finance summit, should come as no surprise. Developed countries had shown in multiple ways that when it comes to the crunch they would walk away.

The Geopolitics of the Natural Gas Trade
Nov 13th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Changes in global natural gas trade have reflected geopolitical alignments but these may shift, depending on policies of incoming US President Donald Trump.

The Angst over China's Slowdown
Oct 29th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

While the evidence that GDP growth in China has slowed is clear, the dire predictions they have given rise to are exaggerated.

Falling Shares of Labour Income
Oct 15th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The latest World Employment and Social Outlook Report (update for September 2024) from the International Labour Organisation highlights some disturbing trends.

Household Debt Stress: Fear in the "good times"
Oct 1st 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Growing concern about defaults on unsecured retail loans reflects not just fear about the health of the banking system as a whole, but about the impact that such defaults could have on macroeconomic performance.

Africa-China Economic Relations: The next phase
Sep 17th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The FOCAC summit suggests that China is entering a new phase of economic relations with Africa, with more targeted investments reflecting changed global realities.

The Chinese Threat in Critical Minerals
Sep 4th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

China's restrictions of a year ago on export of critical materials may not have yet been disruptive. But the speculative price increases they have triggered could explain renewed concerns about supply.

The Crisis of Youth Unemployment
Aug 20th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Youth unemployment is an urgent problem with tragic consequences. The latest labour force survey data from the NSSO indicates how severe this is in urban India, especially in some states.

Why do Domestic Food Prices keep going up when Global Prices Fall?
Jul 24th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

After rising rapidly from early 2020, global food prices have been falling from July 2022. But domestic food prices have continued to rise, especially in low income countries. We explore these trends and the possible reasons.

The Danger of a Retail Credit Boom
Jul 9th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A persistent rise in the volume and share of lending to the retail sector could lead to vulnerability in a banking system that only recently overcame its bad loan problem.

How did Agricultural output Change under the Modi Government?
Jun 25th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The problems in agriculture have been reflected in slow growth of agricultural output in the years since 2011-12. Within this, the performance of particular crops and particular states may provide some insights into why cultivators have been upset with the Modi government.

Does the Savings Decline Drive Growth?
Jun 12th 2024. C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In what may appear to be a paradox, a decline in the net financial savings of the household sector in India may be the factor sustaining the growth it records.

Making Sense of Consumption Expenditure
May 28th 2024. C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Trends in consumption expenditure confirm the evidence of increased inequality and point to the constraints to future growth posed by the lack of expansion of a mass market for consumption goods.

Services Exports as Growth Engine
May 14th 2024. C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The rise in India's services exports has encouraged the view that this is reflective of India’s pursuit of an alternative trajectory of development. The evidence does not support that view.

Water Flowing Upwards: Net financial flows from developing countries
Apr 30th 2024. C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Both private and public sources of capital have been disturbingly procyclical for low and middle income countries, forcing them to become net providers of financial resources to the North and to multilateral institutions.

The True Face of "Aid"
Apr 16th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A spike in Overseas Development Assistance flows from OECD members is not a departure from a long history of ODA levels that have fallen far short of a 1970 promise. It is a revelation of what "aid" really is.

Recent Structural Change in the Indian Economy
Apr 4th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The India Employment Report points to worrying tendencies in terms of structural change in the Indian economy, especially in recent years.

On the Fuss over US Interest Rates
Mar 19th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Discussions on macroeconomic policy in the US and other high income countries tend to focus overwhelmingly on central banks' interest rate adjustments, with little clarity on what impact those changes have domestically.

Making Sense of the Latest Consumption Survey
Mar 5th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Even though the latest consumption survey is not comparable with earlier surveys, and the full data have not yet been released, some preliminary results point to significant inequality in consumption.

Maldives: Debt and dependence
Feb 20th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Maldives is vulnerable to debt distress as the IMF suggests, but that is not a problem to be resolved only by the Maldives government but by an international community that has aggravated the island nation's vulnerability.

The Mystery about Investment
Feb 6th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A decade of decline and stagnation in investment rates is at odds with the official narrative of a resurgent and buoyant economy, which is held back by the demand effects of rising inequality.

World Economy: Out of control
Jan 23rd 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

As fears of inflation recede, the prospect of a medium-term slowdown in the global economy looms. The problem is that global leaders have lost control of both macroeconomic policy and the economy.

The Unpaid Workers who are Described as "Employed"
Jan 9th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A significant part of the recent increase in work participation rates is actually because of more unpaid workers being included in the category of "employed". The true increase in paid employment is marginal, and still bellow the rates of more than a decade ago.

Another COP-out
Dec 26th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The claim that COP28 marked a significant step forward in the battle against climate change is not corroborated by the willingness of the developed countries to commit the needed finance.

The Unbalanced World Economy
Dec 12th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Financial imbalances that impact on countries' net international investment positions are now much more important than current account imbalances, in determining debt stress.

The Climate Finance Shortfall
Nov 28th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The focus on fossil fuel phase out and net zero target dates is geared to diverting attention from the responsibility of developed countries to provide higher climate finance flows to developing countries.

New Estimates of Offshore Wealth held by Indians
Nov 14th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

New estimates of offshore wealth held globally allow for a more granular examination of wealth held abroad by India residents. The results are disturbing—and raise questions about why Indian tax authorities are not doing more to prevent this.

Climate Finance: The IMF's stance
Oct 31st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The IMF's stance on modes of financing the climate mitigation and adaptation effort amounts to a call to absolve developed countries of their historical responsibility.

Faultlines in the Jobs Data
Oct 19th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The apparent fall in the unemployment rate shown by recent data hides major areas of concern in India's employment pattern.

India's BoP Story
Oct 3rd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Despite recording chronic and rising trade deficits, India's balance of payments looks stable and resilient. But that stability may prove to be the source of new problems.

The Injustice Contained in Global Fiscal Indicators
Sep 21st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Many low and middle income countries face sovereign debt crises even though they have been much more fiscally prudent than advanced economies through the Covid-19 pandemic and after.

The Anatomy of Inflation
Sep 5th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A bad monsoon and possible decline in agricultural production threaten to accelerate ongoing inflation in India, particularly because of increased speculation in the market for food.

Global Food Prices in "the Rest of the World"
Aug 22nd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

When food prices in global trade rise, they go up across the world. But the opposite movement of falling trade prices does not necessarily lead to falls in low and middle income countries. We show how this plays out with wheat prices.

The Recurring Crisis: Debt in the LICs
Aug 8th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

To address the debt crisis in the LMICs and prevent its recurrence, it is necessary to address the failure of the international order to provide space for poor countries to earn the foreign exchange needed to service external debt.

The Terrible Human Costs of Debt Service
Jul 25th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Without urgent and effective action on debt relief, fiscal pressures of debt service will cause low and middle income countries to regress on important social and economic indicators.

Addressing Default: Lessons from an opaque experience
Jul 11th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The decision to allow banks to settle with willful defaulters and fraudsters reveals the actual stance of the government on ‘rescuing’ corporate debtors. The hype around the IBC conceals that.

What explains High Global Wheat Prices?
Jun 27th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In the past few years, global wheat prices have moved far away from "fundamentals" of demand and supply. This can be explained by other factors like market concentration and financial activity in commodities markets, which take advantage of temporary or perceived supply shocks.

On the FDI Route to Manufacturing Success
Jun 13th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In its efforts to boost India's underdeveloped manufacturing sector, the government has been emphasising the role of foreign direct investment. But the strategy is not working.

Is India's Rural Economy Diversifying?
May 30th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Official survey data on employment suggest that recent processes of rural employment diversification could already be reversing because of the lack of other viable employment opportunities beyond farming.

India's GST Experience
May 16th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The practice of making much of any small increase in aggregate GST collections only serves to divert attention from the fact that this tax regime has not delivered and precipitated a fiscal crisis in many states.

The Potential of Tax Reform in Latin America
May 2nd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Recent changes in some Latin American tax regimes, especially in Colombia, provide useful pointers for taxation strategies in other developing countries.

World Economy: The long recession
Apr 19th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The world economic outlook released in time for the recently concluded spring meetings of the World Bank and the IMF presents a gloomy picture. Global GDP growth is expected to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, and recover only marginally to 3.0 percent in 2024.

Self-employed Workers in India
Apr 5th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Self-employed workers in India—more than half the workforce—have suffered especially badly in the last few years. The official labour force survey data reveal that, even after overall economic activity has supposedly "recovered", their real incomes are generally lower than they were just before the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Changing Structure of Global Imbalances
Mar 21st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The differences in performance between less developed economies have tended to blur the North-South divide in the global distribution of balance of payments surpluses and deficits. But for most, that divide remains a reality.

The Covid-19 Pandemic and Wages of Casual Workers
Mar 7th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Real wages of casual workers were already declining before the Covid-19 pandemic, and fell sharply during the pandemic. While they have recovered thereafter, quarterly average wages in April-June 2022 were only slightly above the pre-pandemic peak.

Pakistan's Debt Crisis: No resolution in sight
Feb 21st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The IMF cannot resolve Pakistan's debt crisis, though it is influencing policy on the grounds that it can.

Fragilities in India's Balance of Payments
Feb 7th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The official Economic Survey ignores real economy trends which need to be urgently addressed, as is the case with emerging balance of payments fragilities.

India' Remittance Lifeline
Jan 24th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

While the resilience of inwards remittance inflows during the pandemic is a source of comfort for India balance of payments, the sharp shift in the share of different sources in 2020-21 is a cause for concern.

Inflation in an Unequal World Economy: How the fed's policies are doubly perverse for the global south
Jan 16th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Tight monetary policies in rich countries obviously affect people in the countries where they are applied, but they also cause ripple effects across the world. We were already in a very unequal world before the most recent global price increases.

Social Protection for the Self-employed
Jan 10th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The preponderance of the self-employed in the labour force in many countries makes conventional schemes for ensuring social protection impossible to implement. Innovative ways of ensuring a universal social protection floor are required.

India's Foreign Trade during the Ukraine War
Dec 13th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Ukraine War and rising global prices of fuel have had major effects on the external trade of many developing countries. But how much of India's poor trade performance and growing trade deficit since January 2022 can be attributed to such factors?.

India's China-trade Challenge
Nov 29th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A spike in India's imports from China and a widening of the trade deficit it records with that country points to fundamental weaknesses in India's industrial development trajectory.

The Monetary Policy fallout for Developing Countries
Nov 15th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Coping with the adverse fallout of tighter monetary policy in the advanced economies will require developing country governments to shift from openness that increases their own vulnerability to a more creative and flexible approach that provides greater policy autonomy.

The Continuing Tax Gift to Big Indian Companies
Oct 4th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Indian tax system is heavily weighted in favour of large corporations, and has become even more so in recent times.

Food Prices and Hunger in Low and Middle Income Countries
Sep 20th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The major food crisis now emerging in much of the world is not about supply shortages. It reflects ologopolistic and speculative behaviour in global food markets, along with falling purchasing power and currency depreciation in low and middle income countries.

Bonds of Debt
Sep 6th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The rush of sovereign bondholders to less developed countries was seen as an opportunity by many governments. But increased dependence on those bonds has not only contributed to a debt crisis but made resolution near impossible.

Will the GST Regime Fail?
Aug 23rd 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

At the end of the five-year period in which states were being compensated for shortfalls in GST revenues relative to targets, they are on the verge of a fiscal crisis. That could spell the end of the GST regime.

What's Really Happening with Exchange Rates?
Aug 9th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Exchange rates have behaved very differently from what many pundits predicted at the start of the Ukraine war. This requires careful reconsideration of the various factors that determine their movement.

Capital Flight from Emerging Markets
Jul 26th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The recent exit of portfolio capital from emerging markets reveals the vulnerability built up over the years when excess liquidity originating in the developed countries spilt over into global markets.

Are Global Commodity Prices Responsible for the Current Crises in Emerging Markets
Jul 12th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Food and fuel price increases have wreaked a lot of damage and generated inflationary pressures in many economies. However, the current debt problems of so many developing countries cannot be blamed on these higher prices.

The Rupee's Decline
Jun 28th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Over the last three years the Indian rupee has experienced continuous decline, with bouts of sharp depreciation influenced by multiple factors but led principally by capital outflows.

Why are Global Wheat Prices Rising so much?
Jun 14th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The FAO's recent wheat production and utilization forecasts indicate that the focus on the war in Ukraine as the sole driver of explosive global price trends is misplaced and ill-advised.

Misreading FDI Numbers
May 31st 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The government's celebration of record levels of FDI inflows in 2021-22 as indication of the strength of the Indian economy misreads the numbers that point to several underlying weaknesses in India's external account.

Who Controls Renewable Energy Technology?
May 17th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The concentration of technology and tacit knowledge related to renewable energy can emerge as an additional constraint to its wider adoption in many low and middle income countries.

Roots of the Sri Lankan Debt Trap
May 3rd 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Having embraced neoliberal reform in the late 1970s, Sri Lanka had privileged access to large borrowing from the IMF and private financial markets. Exploiting that privilege has proved to be a poison pill.

Panic about Petrol Prices
Apr 19th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Governments of rich countries are the ones showing the greatest panic in responding to rising global oil prices, but the relative price of petrol is already much higher is low and middle income countries with bigger poor populations.

Unwarranted Confidence
Apr 5th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The complacency generated by India's low external debt exposure and large foreign reserves ignores the composition and character of that exposure.

So what’s the Actual Rate of Inflation?
Mar 22nd 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The inflation rates according to the Wholesale Price Index and the Consumer Price Index have diverged substantially in the recent past. In addition to weighting differences, this could reflect underlying macroeconomic changes in the Indian economy.

Collateral Damage: Ukraine invasion and energy markets
Mar 8th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has roiled energy markets. All sides lose. The US and its allies because of energy shortages and inflation; Russia because oil is crucial to its economic performance.

National Income during the Pandemic
Feb 22th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Claims of a robust recovery are undermined by the quarterly national accounts data, which show weak recovery in major sectors and levels of consumption and investment still below pre-pandemic levels.

Public Spending in India
Jan 25th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

According to the government's own report to the IMF, central government spending declined in the pandemic year 2020-21.

Misleading Picture of Household Wealth
Jan 11th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Despite the collection of substantial information on household asset holdings through the official Debt and Investment Surveys, India still lacks an official source of data that allows for reliable and meaningful assessments of trends in the levels and distribution of household wealth.

Fiscal Stringency in a Time of Pandemic
Dec 28th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The unjustifiable conservatism that characterised the central government's fiscal stance in the first pandemic year has persisted, worsening the impact of the health emergency and imposing long-term costs on the Indian people.

State Finances: The looming crisis
Dec 14th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Subject to a fiscal squeeze even before the economic contraction that accompanied the Covid-19 pandemic, state governments are now facing a fiscal crisis that is bound to drag down the economy.

Carbon Emissions and Climate Inequality
Nov 30th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Current measures of climate responsibility understate the emissions created by final demand, especially in the advanced countries, because they ignore how countries can "export carbon emissions" through imports. But measures to address this through trade protectionism will be counterproductive.

A 'Mini-cycle' in the Commodities Sphere?
Nov 16th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Global commodity prices are rising, driven by the revival in economic activity as the pandemic wanes, supply constraints and new demand stemming from sources such as the energy transition. The question is whether the surge will be transitory or persist for a long time.

The Global Divergence gets Bigger
Nov 2nd 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Inter-country economic inequalities have been greatly accentuated by the pandemic, to a level that is likely to become unsustainable and generate significant geopolitical tensions.

Mixed Signals on the Inflation Front
Oct 19th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

While the world grapples with inflation, September 2021 figures from India seem to suggest that consumer prices are in deceleration mode. But this may just be a lull before an impending storm.

How Emerging Markets Hurt Poor Countries
Oct 14th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Three decades of financial globalization have led to massive income and asset inequalities in the US and Europe, and have had worse impacts in the developing world. This inequality is not a bug in the system, but a result of how global financial markets have been allowed to function.

What has the Trade "War" between the United States and China Achieved?
Oct 5th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The US-China trade war has not affected the continued increase in the US trade deficit. But the real purpose is control of frontier technologies.

How Important is MSP-based Procurement
Sep 21st 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Despite its many shortcomings, the minimum support price-based procurement regime is gaining in terms of farmer, crop and geographical coverage. The benefits from the regime that underlie this tendency explain why fear that it may be dismantled triggers protest.

How Dynamic is Global Capitalism?
Sep 7th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Capitalism is conventionally portrayed as a dynamic system driven by private investment sustained by forces of competition. However, evidence from the globalisation years suggests that neither growth nor the levels and pattern of investment support that view.

The Interlinkages between Paid and Unpaid Labour: A homage to Krishna Bharadwaj
Aug 26th 2021. Jayati Ghosh

The gendered division of labour in India creates much greater involvement in unpaid labour for women, which in turn has pervasive implications for their involvement in paid work. Indeed, the interlinkage between the two is so profound that it is impossible to understand trends in one without assessing trends in the other.

The Prospect of a Telecom Monopoly
Aug 24th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

With Vodafone-Idea threatening to throw in the towel, India's telecom business is headed for a private sector duopoly that shares the market with an emaciated public sector. But matters may not stop there.

The Urgent Need for an Urban Employment Guarantee Scheme
Aug 10th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Millions of urban Indian residents are struggling without livelihood opportunities, especially younger workers. A national urban employment scheme needs to be put in place immediately.

Interrogating the Holy Grail of Productivity Growth
Aug 2nd 2021. Jayati Ghosh

One thing most economists agree on regardless of their ideological persuasion, is the importance of productivity increases. Yet, of all economic concepts widely in use, that of aggregate productivity may be the most problematic and full of conceptual and measurement holes.

The Forex Bonanza
Jul 27th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A spike in India's foreign exchange reserves is a surprising feature of the period since March 2020 when the economy has been reeling under the damaging effects of the pandemic. But that trend is no cause for celebration.

Is Emerging Asia in Retreat?
Jul 13th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Financial liberalisation that was meant to mobilise more resources for domestic investment in emerging markets in the 'dynamic' East Asian region has led to exactly the opposite.

A Non-performing Code for Bad Debt
Jun 29th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code has been officially hailed as a powerful instrument to resolve defaulted corporate debt quickly and efficiently. But five years after the code was enacted, the evidence establishes that claim to be just a myth.

The Impasse in External Debt Relief
Jun 15th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The impending debt crisis in several developing countries is spread across low- and middle-income countries, and complicated by the growing role of private players. Yet global leaders show few signs of urgency or adequate action to deal with it.

The Inadequate Food Safety Net
Jun 1st 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The major plank of the Centre's safety net during periods of lockdown necessitated by the Covid pandemic has been the provision of free foodgrain to targeted beneficiaries. But both in terms of need and state capacity, that effort has been limited.

The Hunger Pandemic
May 18th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A survey conducted in October 2020 shows widespread hunger across 11 states. Immediate relief measures are urgently required, since matters would have got much worse since then.

Asia's Post-pandemic Encounter with Foreign Finance
May 4th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Though displaying trends similar to other Asian emerging markets, foreign portfolio capital inflows and market performance in India have distinctive features that give cause for concern.

The Growing Perils of India's open Capital Account
Apr 20th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

India's increasingly open capital account is facilitating large gross and net inflows of foreign capital into the country. But while this does not translate into increased real investment, it imposes a large foreign exchange cost on the economy.

The Long Search for Stability: Financial cooperation to address global risks in the East Asian region
Apr 16th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar

After the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis, the region recognized the need for a regional financial safety net independent of the United States and the IMF to mitigate future crises. The emergence of China as a regional and global power, with its independence from the US, improve the prospects for it.

China's Dash for Technological Leadership
Apr 6th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

China's transformation, from being the manufacturing hub of the world to being a global hub for R&D and innovation, poses a challenge that attracts adverse attention from the rest of the world.

Worrying Spike in Global Food Prices
Mar 10th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Supply side disruptions combine with stockpiling and speculation to drive up global food prices. With low income earners still to recover from the Covid-induced crisis, the trend is a cause for concern.

The Political Economy of Covid-19 Vaccines
Mar 6th 2021. Jayati Ghosh

Blatant vaccine grab by rich countries; protection of patent rights by governments in advanced countries and the use of vaccine distribution to promote 'soft power' have exposed and intensified global inequalities; but a pandemic can be overcome only when it is overcome everywhere.

Hunger, again
Feb 23rd 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Even before Covid-19, global hunger was increasing and the world was no longer on track to meet the SDG of eliminating hunger by 2030. Matters have got much worse since then.

A Market gone awry
Feb 8th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Defying all logic, India's equity market has been experiencing a heady and prolonged boom in a year when the real economy contracted. A correction is inevitable.

Wrecking Fiscal Federalism
Jan 26th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The central government's cynical and expropriative attitude to the states has meant the wrecking of fiscal federalism, with worrying consequences for India's future.

Prepare for a Surge in Global Inequality
Jan 12th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The differential ability, resulting from preexisting global inequality, to address the Covid crisis with increased government spending is likely to substantially worsen those inequalities.

India’s External Sector during the Pandemic
Dec 29th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Weakness in India’s external sector cannot be used as an excuse for the lack of increased fiscal spending by the Indian government.

Bilateral Swaps in China's Global Presence
Dec 15th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

China's use of yuan-denominated central bank swaps, while enhancing its influence, is a source of support for developing countries in an unequal international order.

Unaffordable Education in the New India
Dec 1st 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

An official survey reveals how education spending has gone up sharply in India, forming a huge financial burden on households and excluding the majority of the population from higher education.

Discrimination and Bias in Economics, and Emerging Responses
Nov 19th 2020. Jayati Ghosh

Jayati Ghosh discusses the forms of discrimination and bias that are rampant in economics and enlists some networks that are challenging the rigidities and power structures within the mainstream discipline.

The Remittance Shock
Nov 17th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Dependence on remittances is proving to be an additional source of vulnerability among low and middle income countries in Covid times. But not all are affected to the same degree: and those more dependent and facing larger losses are badly hurt.

Developing Asia: The growing divergence between China and the rest 
Nov 3rd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Growing divergence in economic performance between China and the rest of Asia indicates both reduced regional integration and setbacks in some of China’s Asian neighbours.

Covid Debt and the Tax Paradigm
Oct 20th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis government debt has been on the rise in countries across the world. When the crisis recedes, recovery would depend on the extent to which governments choose to finance repayment with new taxation of the rich.

Time use in India
Oct 6th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The results of the time use survey of the NSSO reveal expected but nonetheless striking results about how men and women in India spend their time very differently, with women hugely burdened by unpaid work.

A Misleading Signal from the Trade Front
Sep 22nd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The emergence of a trade surplus in India's balance of payments over the first five months of 2020-21 does not signal what it would in normal times. A closer analysis of the trade data traces the surplus to the behaviour of an economy in recession.

Central Government Fiscal Stance during the Pandemict
Sep 8th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Fiscal policy in India has been very timid during the period of the most brutal and inefficient (in terms of public health outcomes) lockdowns in the world. Unless this is changed, the economy may plummet further.

Finance and the Economy: Fixing the disconnect 
Aug 25th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

To treat the divergence in the performance of stock markets and the real economy as purely externally driven and only capable of self-correction is to avoid taking much-needed action.

Covid-19: Why is India doing worse than other South Asian countries? 
Aug 11th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A comparison with India's South Asian neighbours points to significant shortfalls in the management of the Covid pandemic in India. This is also the result of the relative long term neglect of health provision in India.

Can India stay with GST? 
Jul 28th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Three years after introduction of the GST, there are no clear signs that this is a regime that can deliver revenue growth of a kind that can justify persisting with it.

Developing Asia's External Debt Concerns
Jul 14th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Developing Asia's external debt can emerge as a major vulnerability not so much because of the volume of debt, but because of its composition, especially the greater reliance on short term debt and foreign holders of debt securities.

It is High Time to Tweak India's FDI Rules 
Jul 13th 2020. Smitha Francis

Continuing to welcome FDI without qualifications will further weaken the domestic capabilities and sovereignty of India. The government instead extend the new rule for FDI screening to all countries defined in terms of livelihood and data security.

Corona Pandemic, Sudden Visibility of Migrant Workers and the Indian Economy 
Jul 6th 2020. Byasdeb Dasgupta

In a three-dimensional crisis, of migrants, of pandemic and of the Indian Economy, the sudden visibiliy of migrants is due to the threat they pose to public health. What remains to be seen is whether the voice of the most vulnerable section will be heard or not.

Economic Contraction and the Fiscal Stance of the Indian Government
Jun 16th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Modi government is pushing the Indian economy into further contraction through its completely inappropriate conservative fiscal stance.

The Worrisome Return of Capital 
Jun 2nd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In April 2020, while 'emerging market economies' remained steeped in the Covid-induced crisis, in a paradoxical turn, equity markets in some of these countries experienced a recovery. That may not be a good sign.

COVID-19 Lockdown: Impact on agriculture and rural economy
Jun 2nd 2020, Vikas Rawal, Manish Kumar, Ankur Verma and Jesim Pais

Lack of planning and preparation by the Central government for tackling the COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a massive blow to India’s rural economy, causing enormous hardships to working people and further aggravating food insecurity in the country.

COVID-19 Lockdown: The crisis of rural employment
May 21st 2020. Vikas Rawal and Manish Kumar

There is a huge demand for employment generation because of widespread loss of rural livelihoods under lockdown. Yet, for about two months, most MGNREGS workers have not been provided any employment due to poor fiscal situation of the State governments.

COVID-19 Lockdown: Impact on agriculture 
May 21st 2020. Vikas Rawal and Manish Kumar

Disruptions caused by the lockdown have resulted in considerable additional economic burden on farmers because of higher costs, increased debt burden, inability to sell the produce at reasonable prices and crop losses. Yet the government’s response to such agricultural distress has been nothing short of a mockery till now.

New Fronts in the US-China Trade War 
May 19th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

As the world grapples with the fall-out of the Covid-crisis, the Trump administration is ramping up its protectionist rhetoric vis-à-vis China. If this leads to new sanctions it would not help the US but worsen the Covid-induced trade crisis.

Outsourcing the Stimulus 
May 18th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar

Aware of its own inaction, the government has outsourced a large part of sorely needed stimulus to RBI and public sector banks. But the latter's aversion to risk is creating multiple roadblocks and it is time the government directly steps in.

How to Build the Global Green New Deal 
May 12th 2020. Jayati Ghosh

The sharp and rapid increase of inequality due to the Covid-19 pandemic is driving home the urgency of internationalism. Jayati Ghosh explains how we can change the global economic architecture to enable a Global Green New Deal.

Contours of the Covid-crisis
May 5th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Early evidence shows that official response to the Covid-induced crisis in the US and Europe may lengthen recession. If the needed fiscal effort is not put in place even a delayed recovery may prove elusive.

It Takes Two to Tango: Can monetary stimulus compensate for an inadequate fiscal stimulus in India?
May 4th 2020. Parthapratim Pal & Partha Ray

Monetary policy can only make credit cheaper, it cannot bring money into the hands of workers. It cannot compensate for a fiscal stimuli, especially when India is in a liquidity trap. For such an unprecedented crisis, fiscal spending has been highly inadequate.

When the US and India Together Failed the Developing World 
Apr 21st 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

India has betrayed the developing world by blocking a proposal for the IMF to issue new SDRs, which would have provided much-needed liquidity at a time of crisis.

Footloose Capital and the Covid Shock 
Apr 7th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The flight of footloose portfolio capital from India has attracted attention because of its impact on stock indices and the value of the rupee. But the bigger danger is of a debt shock that can be more damaging for the corporate sector.

COVID-19 and Indian Economy: From rolling down the hill to falling off the cliff 
Apr 2nd 2020. Jayati Ghosh

As the pandemic unfolds, the Indian economy is falling off a cliff. There is an immediate need for massive public spending beyond conventional fiscal standards. There is also a need for a global plan for significant debt reduction, massive increase in global liquidity, more aid and moratoriums to survive this crisis.

Informal Workers in the Time of Coronavirus
Mar 24th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

State policies to deal with the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic tend to address financial losses of companies. But the material impact is much worse for informal workers who constitute the bulk of the global workforce.

Where are the Jobs for the Girls?
Feb 26th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The recent labour force survey points to declines in all forms of work performed by women, including unpaid labour! Women are the worst casualties of the employment crisis in India.

No Escape from Low Growth
Feb 11th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Although unresolved trade tensions and shocks like the coronavirus epidemic are valid concerns for the world economy, the low growth syndrome that policy has not addressed predates these new concerns.

Government Finances 2019-20
Jan 28th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

After last years' experience of fudged fiscal statements, Union Budget numbers are suspect. The fear is that falling revenues will once again lead to reduced public spending, a disastrous trend for the economy.

Revisiting the NBFC Crisis
Jan 13th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar

Even while the effort to resolve the crisis of NPAs was underway, India's financial sector was overwhelmed by failures of large non-bank financial companies. Apart from poor financial management and downright fraud, there were structural reasons why these institutions accumulated bad assets, which are often ignored.

JG Interview with Sampath- The Hindu 
Jan 7th 2020.

In an interview with The Hindu, Jayati Ghosh talks about her life experiences, her views about global economic slowdown and the role of fiscal deficit in resolving demand scarcity, and the importance of JNU within a system of crony capitalism.

India is failing her Young Women even in Terms of Work
Dec 31st 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Labour force and work participation rates are low among young women across India, but the 2017-18 labour force survey shows that rates in almost all states have fallen even further, pointing to particularly adverse women labour market conditions.

The Crisis in Manufacturing
Dec 17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The slowdown in registered manufacturing draws attention to the structural crisis afflicting the Indian economy, which is both generalised and deep.

What Really Happened to Public Spending in 2018-19?
Dec 3rd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Faced with dwindling revenues in 2018-19, the government chose to discreetly slash expenditure, with burden of the cuts falling disproportionately on sectors of social and developmental importance and on the states.

When Evidence is Anti-national
Nov 27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The government's decision to hold back results of the official consumer expenditure survey is another move on its part to suppress information indicative of poor economic performance under its watch.

Household Savings in Troubled Times
Nov 19th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

"Financial uncertainty and slowing income growth are driving household savings out of bank deposits and increasing reliance on borrowings from NBFCs. With NBFCs under stress this can lead to a recession unless measures are taken to stimulate demand."

The Changing Nature of Public Employment
Nov 5th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Indian labour force surveys indicate an increase in public employment, but very little of this is increase in good quality jobs. Instead, most new jobs are of underpaid women workers without proper conditions.

Liberalising Tenancy or Grabbing Land of the Poor?
Nov 4th 2019, Vikas Rawal and Vaishali Bansal

The 2016 Report of the Haque Committee has proposed liberalization of tenancy market on grounds of efficient land utilization in favour of small landowners. But leasing is seldom done by small to big farmers and owning even a small piece of land provides economic security to the rural poor. Such provisions will only facilitate grabbing of land of the poor by resource-rich landlords and capitalist farmers.

RCEP and Make in India dreams
Oct 31st 2019, Smitha Francis

In the absence of strategic policy support that help build up indigenous capabilities and create the incentives for localisation, extensive liberalization through RCEP will only worsen domestic production, lower export and FDI flows and compromise national security for India.

The Burden of Public Spending
Oct 10th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

"Central governments' tightening control on fiscal resources is preventing state governments from undertaking the much-needed public spending which have recently propped up economic activity."

Bank Credit Post-demonetisation
Sep 12th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Demonetisation further added to the problems of Indian banking in the medium term.

Troubling Features of the GST Regime
Aug 27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Goods and Services Tax regime appears to have reduced the resource generating capacity of the states and contributed to worsening inter-state inequality.

The IMF’s Latest Victims
Aug 14th 2019, Jayati Ghosh

Despite recognising the damaging effects of austerity on Greece's economy, the IMF has made the same mistakes in its subsequent deals with Argentina and Ecuador.

Developing Asia needs a New Economic Paradigms
Aug 14th 2019, Jayati Ghosh

Developing Asia would be a major beneficiary of a Global Green New Deal based on an extensive role for public investment. Trying to incentivise private investment, as proposed by OECD and G20, is unlikely to work.

External Debt in Asia: Growing pains
Aug 13th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

External debt is emerging as a potential concern for many Asian developing countries, even for those whose aggregate external debt to GDP ratios do not appear to be large. This is because of the growing importance of private bond holders in such debt, even as capital flows to the region turn more volatile.

India's withering Public Employment
Jul 30th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Government's strategy of leaving public employment posts vacant to save on the potential wage bill is deeply irresponsible and unjust.

The Exploitation Time Bomb
Jul 18th 2019, Jayati Ghosh

The self-reinforcing pattern of high profits, low investment, and rising inequality poses a threat not only to economic growth, but also to democracy, argues Jayati Ghosh.

The Structure of Corporate Finance
Jul 17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

New flow-of-funds data point not to a change in financing pattern of the corporate sector but to the depressed investment environment in the economy.

The Debate over Inequlity
Jul 8th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

Prabhat Patnaik points out that while the debate over inequality has become hotter elsewhere in the world, in India, there is very little noise about it despite a massive rise in inequality after economic liberalisation.

The Bogey of Currency Manipulation
Jun 18th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Which emerging markets have seen significant depreciation of their exchange rates? And should “currency manipulation” be blamed for that?

Disruption in the World of Trade
Jun 6th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

World trade is slowing. While the US triggered trade war with China is part of the explanation, the real driver is a loss of momentum in the world economy.

Warning Signs from External Trade
May 21st 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh points out that India's rising gold imports are primarily responsible for its growing trade deficit; so far no action has been taken by the Modi government to prevent these unnecessary imports.

Gendered Labour Markets and Capitalist Accumulations
May 17th 2019, Jayati Ghosh

Jayati Ghosh discusses how social constructions of gender affect macroeconomic processes, for example through varying work participation rates and migration patterns.

The Spectre of Higher Oil Prices
May 7th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The decision of the US government under Trump to end the waivers from sanctions on imports of oil from Iran that were given to eight countries could trigger a spike in oil prices. That can have adverse implications for India's balance of payments stability and inflation trends.

China's Trade with other Asian Countries
Apr 23rd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

China's trade with Asian developing countries is more significant than ever - but not always in ways that benefit them.

Vanishing Green Shoots
Apr 9th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Governments and central banks that were upbeat about global economic recovery are turning pessimistic, making this one more episode of a green shoot that died young.

Why is South Asia Performing so Badly on the SDGs?
Mar 27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

High inequality in the South Asian region is a crucial factor responsible for the region's poor performance on the SDGs.

Migration and Remittances: The gender angle
Mar 7th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The gender distribution of migrant workers has a macroeconomic impact - it affects both the level and the volatility of remittance inflows, as the Asian experience shows.

Is the Banking Sector out of the Woods yet?
Feb 26th 2019, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta

The NDA regime has been characterised by a steep rise in NPAs and frauds, and a misguided view of ‘corrective action’.

The Skewed Structure of India's Bond Market
Feb 11th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In trying to deal with large volumes of bad debt, especially corporate debt owed to the banking system, measures to activate the corporate debt market are being pushed. But experience suggests that investors are unlikely to bite.

Social Responsibility of Intellectuals in Building Counter-Hegemonies 
Feb 4th 2019, Issa Shivji

In a period of upsurge of fascism, narrow nationalism and parochialism, Issa Shivji calls for the social responsibility of intellectuals to construct a counter-hegemonic project that would resonate with the lives of the vast majority.

The Failed Promise of Employment 
Jan 17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Attempts by the Modi government to avoid scrutiny on employment generation by suspending or delaying official statistics and trying to use inappropriate and unreliable indicators are bound to fail. Independent assessments point to the dismal job situation in the country.

Remittances as Saviour 
Dec 18th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Remittances from non-resident Indian workers, especially in the Gulf, have helped to conceal the failure of liberalization to deliver the promised export boom.

The Emerging International Regime
Dec 10th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik

The world capitalist crisis of reduced aggregate demand and the protectionism of the U.S. has resulted in a reduced export demand for world economies. Third world countries face enlarged trade and current account deficits, to overcome these deficits, countries like India will have to take measures on their own level.

Contemporary Capitalism and the World of Work 
Dec 4th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Imperialism remains essential to capitalism in all its phases, although its instruments may change from one phase of capitalism to another. When we incorporate imperialism in the Marx's analysis of the dynamics of capitalism, we resolve the puzzle of fall in per capita annual total (both direct and indirect) cereal consumption despite rise in per capita real income. It is because of rise in world poverty along with rise in per capita real incomes.
Is Shadow Banking a Serious Threat in Emerging Markets? 
Dec 4th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Is shadow banking in emerging markets the next big trouble spot for the global financial system? Or is this problem over-hyped?
A Curious Divergence 
Nov 20th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
An inadequately analysed but striking divergence in the services sector's contribution to GDP and employment growth is a pointer to the weaknesses inherent in India's services-led growth model.
Neo-liberalism and the Diffusion of Development 
Nov 19th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The cycles of ebbs and flows under capitalism result in the behaviour of capitalists alternating between riskless and adventurers when it comes to investments. As the ongoing capitalist recession continues and even gets accentuated, as finance begins to flow back increasingly to the metropolis as is already happening, investment and growth rate in the third world will dry up to an even greater extent than in the metropolis.
A Heart-rending Episode 
Nov 14th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The Bengal famine of 1943 in which 3 million persons died was the direct result of the escalation of British war expenditure on the eastern front. Such massive loss of life could have been avoided if the manner of financing war expenditure had been different. The war expenditure on the eastern front was financed by a "profit inflation" generating "forced savings". Financing war expenditure this way imposed a heavy burden, especially on the poor people of rural Bengal who were net food purchasers. The forced reduction in consumption they had to undergo, entailed a drastic reduction in their foodgrain intake, and hence the famine.
India's Wealthy Barely Pay Taxes 
Nov 6th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
India has one of the most unequal wealth distributions in the world. The annual Global Wealth Report indicates that wealth inequality in India is only slightly below Russia, which is widely recognised to be the most unequal. Data shows that the richest are paying a falling share of the income taxes. The inability to tax high net worth individuals – or to collect corporation tax from profitable companies as expected – in turn means that the government has turned to relying more and more on indirect taxation which is much more regressive and puts the burden of raising fiscal resources onto common people.
Is "Formalisation" Possible? 
Oct 23rd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The clamour for 'formalising' non-agricultural economic activity assumes that the unorganised sector is an early and backward 'stage' in the organisation of economic activity. In practice the unorganised sector exists because organised employment fails to grow.
Hype and Facts on Free Trade 
Oct 10th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
In the light Trump's tariffs that are frightening US corporations and European and North American allies along with Japan and China, a report by IMF, World Bank and WTO have produced Reinvigorating Trade and Inclusive Growth. While persisting on "trade reform", the report fails to recognise the arguments about the distribution of gains from trade. In contrast, the evidence-based arguments presented in the UNCTAD's Trade and Development Report 2018 report are telling.
India's External Vulnerability 
Sep 26th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While the rise in oil prices explains the sudden deterioration of the current account balance in India's external payments, it also signals the vulnerability to inevitable shocks that is inherent in the changing structure of India's external trade relations.
GST: One more NDA failure 
Sep 24th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
From the beginning of its implementation it was clear that under the new tax regime it was unfeasible to have a single tax on all commodities, given the inequality in the country. The multi-tax structure adapted does not simplify the system much, and only promises to do away with the cascading effects of the erstwhile excise duties and sales taxes.
The Real Problem with Free Trade 
Sep 11th 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Even if free trade is ultimately broadly beneficial, the fact remains that as trade has become freer, inequality has worsened. One major reason for this is that current global trade rules have enabled a few large firms to capture an ever-larger share of value-added, at a massive cost to economies, workers, and the environment.
Who's Manipulating China's Exchange Rate? 
Sep 11th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Contrary to western perceptions, the Chinese government's attempts to manage the exchange rate over the past few years have actually been directed to shoring up its value, rather than forcing depreciation.
Finance versus the People 
Aug 27th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
There is a fundamental contradiction between democracy and neo-liberal capitalism. This contradiction can be seen from the exuberance of the market with the removal of a challenge to communal authoritarianism.
Factory Workers in India
Aug 14th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The number of workers in the industrial factory sector in India has grown since 2005-06, but other trends suggest that the bargaining power of such workers remains low.
Changes in the Structure of Employment in India
Aug 14th 2018, Vikas Rawal
An analysis of overall trends in the structure of employment, differentiated between men and women, between rural and urban workers, and across different sectors. With an emphasis on using age-cohort analysis, the dynamics of change in the employment structure are elucidated. The paper looks at changes in the overall size of the labour force and in work participation rates between 1993–94 and 2011–12 and talks about changes in employment structure across different industries as well as impact of improvement in educational attainment on employment conditions of young workers.
Institutional Investors and Indian Markets
Aug 1st 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
In these uncertain times, equity markets in India seemed to be protected from extreme volatility. But the factors behind such resilience could also result in sudden stops.
The Devaluation of the Academia
Jul 19th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
With detrimental policy decisions, including the proposed abolition of University Grants Commission, the targeting of the academic environment of the country is indicating a future of political control of and restricted freedom in academia. This phenomenon is actively contributing to the creation of a non-thinking society, something India can ill afford at the moment.
Did Developing Countries Really Recover from the Global Crisis?
Jul 17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A decade after the Global Financial Crisis, developing countries still bear the scars in the form of lower growth and lower investment rates.
A Legacy of Vulnerability
Jul 12th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Outstanding foreign bank claims that accumulated during the post-crisis period of easy and cheap credit are a source of vulnerability in the new environment.
Has Donald Trump Already Changed US Trade?
Jun 19th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Donald Trump is threatening to dismantle the current world trading system, but in his first year US trading patterns show strong continuity with the previous administration.
Trump Versus the Rest
Jun 18th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Donald Trump's protectionist stance at the G-7 summit is an example of how disunited capitalist countries are on a possible solution to the capitalist crisis. Because of the position of the US economy, Trump can afford to hold on to his protectionist policies while enlarging the fiscal deficit. What is wrong about this strategy is the possibility of long term repercussions, not just for America but for the capitalist world as a whole.
The Push for Privatizing Banks
Jun 11th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Historically, the push for bank privatization which has gathered momentum with a rising tendencies to take to neo-liberal policies. The arguments for privatization have been put forward time and time again, depending on economic circumstances. As international finance capital demands outright privatization to control financial resources and popularizes the conception of social interest best served through free finance, the NPA crisis in India has become the justification today.
The Misplaced Growth Discourse
Jun 5th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A close look at the nature of recent high growth rates provides ample cause for caution. The growth shows absence of dynamism and focus is on a few service sectors. It is being driven by consumption expenditure rather than investment which signals a probably fragile and unstable growth process.
Once again, the Oil Price Scare
May 22nd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As oil prices rise again, countries like India that had benefited from relatively low prices in recent years have to reconsider their growth and macroeconomic strategies.
Curbing Child Rape: Are we barking up the wrong tree?
May 11th 2018, Anamitra Roychowdhury
Raising the quantum of punishment in the face of public outrage will not work without fund allocation to improve police-civilian ratio and building judicial infrastructure.
Agricultural Tenancy in Contemporary India
May 9th 2018, Vaishali Bansal, Yoshifumi Usami and Vikas Rawal
The following report on "Agricultural Tenancy in Contemporary India" involved a detailed assessment of the 48th (1991-92), 59th (2002-03) and 70th (2012-13) rounds of the NSSO Surveys of Land and Livestock Holdings (NSSOSLLH) and includes detailed household-by-household corrections to remove a number of inconsistencies in the data. The main findings of the analysis point to significant marginalisation of landless poor households.
The Return of a Housing Bubble
May 8th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While household balance sheets are not rid of the debt accumulated in the years preceding the 2008 crisis, there are signs that purchases financed with new debt are leading to a fresh bubble in property markets.
The Collapse in Developing Country Export
Apr 25th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The period since 2010 has seen a collapse in developing country exports, most of all in South-South trade. Developing countries need to factor this into their future strategies.
Plurality in Teaching Macroeconomics
Apr 18th 2018, Rohit Azad
For vibrant policy making, an open-minded academic engagement between contrasting viewpoints is needed in macroeconomic education. However, there does not even exist a textbook that contrasts these contesting ideas in a tractable manner. This pedagogical paper is an attempt to plug that gap by presenting a comparative study across different traditions in macroeconomics in a unified framework, which can be developed into a semester-long intermediate-level course.
The True Face of the Global Recovery
Apr 11th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Optimistic assessments of the synchronised recovery across the world economy ignore the factors driving the weak upturn that make it fragile.
How Unequal are World Incomes?
Mar 27th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Global inequality has reduced as income growth shifts from the Northern countries to emerging markets like the BRICS. But this shift is quite limited and has not benefited the bulk of people in the developing world.
Market Fever and its Aftermath
Mar 13th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As fears of a market downturn cloud sentiment, the factors that led up to the bull run and their implications need to be studied and learnt from.
National Income in India: What's really growing?
Feb 28th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Recent income growth in India has been dominated by sectors that do not reflect real physical output increases – such as finance, insurance and real estate and public administration and defence.
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