The charts immediately suggest that any ICOR calculations would produce highly volatile and questionable results for the different sectors over the period in question. In all of the sectors, output (that is GDP by sector) has been quite volatile and estimates of ICOR would be quite problematic.
 
Consider the case of agriculture, described in Chart 6. This is one of the few sectors to show a definite increase in investment over this period. Despite this, however, GDP in this sector has fluctuated very significantly, and certainly show no positive time trend.
 
In manufacturing, described in Chart 7, there has been a definite stagnation and even decline in investment after 1994-95. This is noteworthy because it suggests that the deceleration investment in this sector began before the industrial recession which is typically dated from around the middle of 1996. The changes in GDP in manufacturing appear to be even sharper than those in investment in this sector.

Chart 7 >> Click to Enlarge
 
Investment in the infrastructure sectors of electricity, gas and water, shown in Chart 8, appear to have increase since 193-94 in real terms. However, railway investment has slumped dramatically, as indicated in Chart 9. Since railways remains among the most significant means of goods traffic in the country, besides serving the transport needs of the bulk of the population, this collapse in railway investment is a real source of concern. By contrast, the railways does not appear to have performed quite so poorly in terms of GDP growth. However, not just the railways but even other transport sectors appear to have been hit by falling real investment since 1993-94. They show a declining trend  in investment (Chart 10) except for the last year, and it must be borne in mind that the data for the last year are still provisional and subject to substantial change going by past experience.

Chart 8 >> Click to Enlarge

Chart 9 >> Click to Enlarge

Chart 10 >> Click to Enlarge
 
The opposite tendency from railways seems to at work in the communications sector, for which the data are displayed in Chart 11. Here, as expected, capital formation has been quite strong and growing in real terms, but   output expansion seems to be less dynamic than would be indicated by the dynamism of investment.

Chart 11 >> Click to Enlarge
 
Finance was for a time a booming sector, and in any case in economies where there is an initial phase of financial liberalisation there tends to be a temporary boom in financial and business services as well as in real estate. Therefore it is not surprising that investment in these sectors increased in real terms as shown in Chart 12, despite a slump over 1996-97. However, there appear to be no significant time trend for investment in trade, hotels and restaurants (Chart 13), which show extreme volatility both in investment and in changes in output over this period.

Chart 12 >> Click to Enlarge

Chart 13 >> Click to Enlarge
 
The overall picture, then, is one of relatively sluggish investment despite the slight increase in investment rates which is part of a longer time trend. It is of even greater concern that most of the new investment appears to have come in recent years from private household investment, as corporate investment has stagnated and public investment has actually fallen. These tendencies bode ill for future growth prospects unless the overall macroeconomic strategy of the government is completely reversed from that which has dominated over the past decade.

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