The world
appears to be very strange at the moment. Words are being
distorted, used in completely opposite contexts, leaving
people groping for its true meaning. The most glaring
example, of course, is the US government's use of words in
the context of Iraq war, where 'freedom' has been used to
indicate the process of neo-colonial conquest, and
'democracy' to describe the system of rule by the
conquering power, and its tolerance to looting and
anarchy.
But even when the words themselves have not been
completely desecrated by ill-use, there is now a tendency
to make statements turn out to be the opposite of what is
either intended or actually done. This is certainly the
case with a lot of national and international economic
policy-making at the moment.
Take the case of capital controls. There was a period,
during the last decade, when regulation was a bad word,
and liberalization of all kinds was lauded as the best
course to pursue in terms of economic strategy. This was
also the case for financial liberalization and
deregulation in capital markets, both national and
international.
However, the experience of intense and more frequent
financial crises across the world, especially in some
developing countries, has created a more balanced view of
the advantages of completely liberalizing capital flows.
In fact, there is growing recognition that such
liberalization can create more problems than benefits,
specially for the markets of developing countries.
This is not just the view expressed by developing
countries, such as Argentina and Turkey, that have
suffered from financial crises in the recent past. It has
also been accepted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
the international organization that was most active in
pushing developing countries to undertake such
liberalization. In a recent report, the IMF has accepted
that there can be many problems with capital account
liberalization, which can create highly volatile flow of
capital that destabilize the economy.
The IMF even acknowledged that the process of
liberalization has not really helped developing countries
get more access to capital. They should have accepted this
even earlier. The fact is that in the decade of the 1990s,
which was when all countries liberalized massively,
developing countries as a group actually got less capital
inflow (as a share of GDP) than they did in the 1970s,
when capital movements were much more controlled.
At a recent seminar in Berlin, Germany, it was surprising
how many people in important positions accepted the need
for capital controls. This was reiterated by
representatives of the European Union, by central bankers
from Germany and legislators from a number of countries
across the world. To hear their views expressed at that
seminar, you would think that the world is moving to a
situation of much greater control over cross-border
capital flows.
But the reality is quite the opposite. So far, the
evidence everywhere is towards greater liberalization, not
more control. And this process is continuing despite the
growing recognition that such liberalization is both
problematic and dangerous, and confers relatively few
benefits.
An economist who has undertaken a comparative study of
policies has pointed out that in the 1990s, there is not a
single country in the world that has moved towards greater
controls, except for temporary controls in the midst of an
actual financial crisis. Every country has moved further
towards liberalization, even when such liberalization had
already led to tragedy once.
This is the case in East Asia, where the earlier
controlled financial systems were associated with the
success of these economies. The crisis in the late 1990s
was substantially caused by the financial liberalization
of the early 1990s in the region, but even after the
crisis, these countries have typically gone in for further
liberalization and allowing foreigners to enter and
control their financial systems.
There were some countries, such as Chile, which were
applauded by others because of their imaginative use of
market-based capital controls that allowed them to survive
the contagion effect of crises in Mexico and Argentina.
But now Chile has removed all those controls, and is
striving to reach the neo-liberal dream of a completely
liberalized economy.
In other words, even as economists and policy advisers
from across the world and from all ends of the ideological
spectrum accept the need for more capital controls,
governments are doing precisely the opposite. The Indian
government is a case in point. It has moved in the
direction of complete capital account liberalization,
despite the clear evidence that 'hot' money is currently
flowing into the country, with the potential of causing
problems later.
It seems inexplicable, flying in the face of both evidence
and the current accepted wisdom. The only analogy that
comes to mind is that of lemmings marching resolutely
towards the sea, towards death by drowning that inevitably
awaits them at the end of the march.
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