Poverty does not get eradicated merely through
higher growth. What is important in this context is the nature of that
growth, in particular the extent to which growth is employment-augmenting,
since it is the using up of labour reserves that is critical for poverty
eradication. By the same token, however, an attack on poverty can be
made directly through employment-generating schemes, which have nothing
to do with growth per se but which, if properly devised, can stimulate
growth through capital formation in the countryside. In other words,
instead of making higher growth the primary objective and hoping that
poverty eradication would become a mere fallout of it, policy in India
can and should aim at making poverty eradication the primary objective
and obtaining higher growth its fallout.
Fortunately, the conditions at present are favourable
for a major thrust in this direction. The 1990s have also made the economy
demand-constrained, that is, saddled it with unutilised industrial capacity
and unsold foodgrain stocks owing to lack of suff icient demand; indeed
the growing poverty and the inadequacy of aggregate demand represent
two sides of the same coin. But this very fact, which has been a problem
until now, can be converted into an opportunity if the government is
willing to take a bol d policy initiative by stepping out of the theoretical
straitjacket provided by the Bretton Woods institutions. At the moment
there are more than 32 million tonnes of foodgrain stocks with the Food
Corporation of India (FCI). This is 12 million tonnes more than the
stocks that the government considers necessary for this time of the
year. These 12 million tonnes of surplus stocks imply not only enlarged
indebtedness for the FCI but also additional interest payments over
and above what the FCI would have incurred for holding its "normal"
stocks. These stocks exist owing to inadequate demand for foodgrains
in the public distribution system (PDS), which in turn means that at
the prevailing issue prices of foodgrains distributed through the PDS,
the purchasing power of the rural poor is insufficient to lift these
stocks.
The situation therefore offers an ideal an opportunity
to launch a major anti-poverty initiative by providing purchasing power
to the rural poor. Such an initiative, apart from effecting poverty
reduction and bringing down surplus stocks, could, if properly conceived,
result in substantial and useful capital formation in the countryside,
in the forms of rural infrastructure, school buildings, and so on. It
could even be combined with a programme for universalising primary education,
since several of the infrastructural requirements of such a programme
could be covered through the anti-poverty initiative. Moreover, as the
foodgrain distribution accompanying the increased purchasing power injected
through such an anti-poverty initiative would have to be done through
the PDS, in large parts of North India, where the PDS is virtually absent,
this would also provide an opportunity to instal or revamp the PDS itself.
Since State governments that would neglect this task would fall behind
in the implementation of the anti-poverty initiative and hence court
political unpopularity, there would be some pressure on them to instal
a reasonable PDS.
Two additional considerations favour such an
initiative. First, the foreign exchange requirement of such an initiative
would be virtually negligible, so that no extra pressures on the country's
balance of payments would emerge as a consequence of it. This contrasts
with virtually any other way of stimulating the level of economic activity
in the country. Secondly, since large sectors of industry are in recession
still, the complementary industrial products that would be required
if such an employment-generation programme is undertaken can be easily
provided; what is more, the demand for such products would help industry
to come out of the recession and hence stimulate the generation of second-round
employment. A major employment-generation programme can be one important
component of the Budget. In addition, however, there is a need to revive
of public investment, particularly in the area of infrastructure.
If the financial resources for such an increase
in public investment are raised through direct taxes on the rich, so
much the better. But even if the government is unwilling to raise larger
tax revenue, given the fact that unutilised capacity exists in a host
of public sector units producing equipment and c apital goods, it should
still go in for increased public investment, financed, if necessary,
through a larger fiscal deficit. As long as the deficit-financed public
investment expenditure flows back to the public sector units, it cannot
conceivably have any adverse consequences for the economy. No doubt,
international speculators might get jittery in such a situation. But
the Indian economy mercifully is not yet fully "liberalised"; sufficient
instruments of control are still available to the government to deal
with any adverse consequences of such nervousness. Besides, it is dangerous
for the country if the government allows investors' jitteriness to come
in the way of preventing an economic development disaster.