The IMF never tires of
advising developing countries to improve their governance
practices. No cronyism, more transparency and less corruption
are the refrain of most policy documents released by
the more powerful of the Bretton Woods twins. Yet the
debate over the choice of a new Managing Director for
that institution reveals its own adoption of a non-transparent,
closed-door, ''informal'' process. That process is part
of an arrangement between the US and Europe, which ''accepts''
that the chief of the Fund has to be a European, while
the head of the World Bank should always be an American.
The
current debate began when Horst Kohler, the IMF’s Managing
Director, abruptly resigned in early March, on being
chosen the compromise candidate for the post of the
President of the Federal Republic of Germany. Even while
Europe has since been scurrying to find a consensus
candidate for the post of the MD, beginning with an
unsuccessful lunch meeting of the EU’s Finance Ministers
on May 9, developing countries have come out far more
sharply than before in favour of a more open and transparent
process.
Around the same time as the EU meeting, at the sidelines
of a technical group meeting, Ariel Buira, the Director
of the G-24 Secretariat, an official developing country
think-tank functioning since 1972, declared that the
selection procedure for the chief of the IMF reflects
the fact that the governance structures of the IMF and
the World Bank "lack representativeness" and
"do not reflect the reality of the world economy".
Speaking on behalf of the members of the G-24, Buira
noted that though the countries of the South account
for around 160 of the 184 members of the multilateral
lenders, this presence is neither reflected in the voting
system nor in the distribution of upper-level posts.
Between 80 and 85 percent of the top posts in the IMF
and World Bank are held by people from industrialised
nations, said Buira, a noted Mexican economist.
The point being made here was not just about nationality
or geographical origin. Since developing countries are
the only ones that have used the lending facilities
of the IMF and the World Bank for close to 25 years
now, those with developing country experience are the
ones who have hands on experience with the implementation
of the conditionalities and programmes associated with
such lending. Given the growing criticism of such programmes,
especially during the spate of financial crises beginning
with that in East Asia in 1997, "there is something
to be said about having people who have experienced
the programmes and conditionality, know what the cost
is and perhaps are better able to understand the needs
of the countries that borrow," Buira noted. So
what was needed was a more participatory, open, transparent
and democratic procedure "which leads to an objective
assessment of the merits of potential candidates and
attracts the best candidates regardless of nationality."
That Buira was not speaking without a brief became clear
when days latter Finance Ministers attending a meeting
of central bank governors and finance ministry officials
from Africa, echoed the same sentiment. Addressing a
media briefing during the conference, Burkina Faso's
Finance Minister Jean-Baptiste Campaore said, the unexpected
resignation on March 4 of IMF Managing Director Horst
Koehler was an opportunity for developing countries
in general, and Africa in particular, to "send
a signal" about the importance of transparency
and participation in choosing the leadership of the
Bretton Woods institutions. Sudanese Finance Minister
Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan said the Johannesburg conference
was not saying the next managing director must be an
African. What they wanted was a more open and democratic
selection process.
Subsequently, on March 19, 2004, an IMF press release
made clear the position of a large group that had formed
within the IMF itself, who together represented well
over 100 countries. The release stated that this group,
consisting of the G-11 Executive Directors, representing
emerging and developing countries from Asia, Africa,
Latin America, and the Middle East, Executive Directors
from Australia and Switzerland, who each represent a
range of countries, and the Executive Director from
the Russian Federation, had in a meeting resolved that:
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The … candidate nominated for the position (of IMF
Managing Director) must be an eminent person, familiar
with the goals of the institution.
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The process of identifying and selecting the candidate
must be open and transparent, with the goal of attracting
the best person for the job, regardless of nationality.
A plurality of candidates representing the diversity
of members across regions would be in the best interest
of the Fund.
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All members of the Executive Board should be consulted
in the process of considering candidates that lead
to the selection of the Managing Director and informed
in a timely manner regarding candidates, including
their credentials and knowledge of the institution."
These
developments indicate that this time around there is
bound to be considerably more controversy surrounding
the appointment of the Managing Director. Kohler’s appointment
as IMF Managing Director in 2000 was itself the end
result of a murky two-step process of selection. First,
Germany was ''allotted'' the post in 2000 because at that
time the NATO chief was from the UK, an Italian headed
the European Commission and a Frenchman was to take
over leadership of the European Central Bank. Using
its ''opportunity'', Germany nominated Caio Koch-Weser
as successor to former managing director Michel Camdessus
of France. But the U.S. government blocked the IMF board's
selection of Koch-Weser, and in a subsequent compromise
Germany won approval of a second candidate, which was
Koehler. Backroom deals in international finance are
fought hard and not won easy.
Thus, even if Europe has as per an informal deal between
the US and Europe the right to nominate a Managing Director
to the IMF, it has to first find a consensus candidate
and second win US approval for that candidate. Not surprisingly,
as soon as the post once again fell vacant in March,
speculation in Europe started over the likely nominee.
Initially, the name of Gordon Brown, UK’s Chancellor
who also chairs the IMF's International Monetary and
Financial Committee, was doing the rounds, since he
was a considered in 2000 as well. But given his ambitions
to become Prime Minister, he did not join the race.
Now there are three names reportedly being considered
by the EU: Jean Lemierre, the French president of the
London-based European Bank for Reconstruction and Development;
Rodrigo Rato, former finance minister of Spain, and
Mario Draghi, the former head of Italy's treasury who
is now at Goldman Sachs. Rato’s chances may have been
adversely affected by the election results in Spain,
since he may not win approval even from the new Spanish
government itself.
But even if one of these candidates were to win the
support of Germany and France, as Lemierre is expected
to, there are three other obstacles to be crossed. That
which could be created by the UK and the US; that being
set up by the developing countries; and, finally, the
weight of informed public opinion against the current
cronyist appointment procedure being widely expressed
in the international media.
Reportedly, Gordon Brown has been sounding out other
members of the IMF's International Monetary and Financial
Committee, including the developing country members.
The UK has called for a more open selection process
and indicated that there cannot be too early an agreement
on a European candidate for the job. A British Treasury
official is reported to have said that UK wanted "a
very wide range of countries" to be involved.
The US too has chosen to remain in the sidelines, letting
the EU handle the matter, but conscious of the fact
that it needs to retain its ''customary right'' to nominate
a successor when the current World Bank President James
Wolfensohn’s term ends next year. However, to keep its
legitimacy going it has backed the call for openness
and transparency. John Snow, US Treasury secretary,
recently told reporters: "We want an open process
that focuses on merits and selects the most qualified
person." In practice, however, it is likely that
the UK and the US would go along with any Western European
consensus candidate, so as to avoid one more bone of
contention with Europe, to add to those like the Iraq
war and agricultural subsidies. They would at most extract
a concession or two on other issues.
So we are soon likely to see Europe running the course
to the second obstacle: developing country opposition.
The problem here too is one of agreement within a large
and varied bloc. We must recall that most developing
country governments have ''owned'' Fund-Bank type policies,
are competing for US-EU friendship and would be averse
to upsetting precariously balanced relationships. This
could lead to proposals that are either no challenge
to the IMF decision making process or to disagreements
that are unlikely to be resolved.
Already, reports have it that Shakour Shaalan, Egypt's
executive director at the IMF, has followed up the G-11
statement with three proposed nominations to the MD’s
post: Stanley Fischer, a Zambian-born US citizen, currently
with Citigroup, who is an economist who has served as
first deputy managing director of the IMF as well as
chief economist of the World Bank. Andrew Crockett,
a UK citizen, who works at JP Morgan Chase, earlier
headed the Bank for International Settlements and has
worked at the Bank of England and at the IMF. And, Mohamed
El-Erian, who holds both Egyptian and French passports,
who has served the IMF for 15 years, rose to the position
of deputy director of the Middle East region, and currently
is a fund manager at Pimco.
The panel is indeed surprising. When the system is already
loaded so heavily against the developing world, why
on earth should the G-11 EDs recommend an American and
an Englishman? It definitely is not because there are
no other deserving individuals from the South besides
Mr. El-Erian. It should be obvious that from the point
of the view of the IMF and international financial capital,
these are individuals with impeccable credentials. The
only major difference between these candidates and those
likely to be recommended by the EU is the fact that
their track record includes a successful stint at the
IMF. That could be a drawback rather than an advantage.
It could mean that their entry into the top position
in the Fund is unlikely to make any difference to the
Fund’s positions with regard to the developing countries.
Fortunately, it is not still clear whether Egypt’s suggestions
are likely to be received well by all the G-11 EDs;
probably not. But the division this involves could be
exploited by the US and the EU to push through an EU
nominee with similar credentials. The point of the whole
exercise of dissent and opposition may be lost.
This leaves global public opinion as the final obstacle.
But, if the war in Iraq is an indicator, this is unlikely
to make any difference. Moreover, how could public opinion
matter if the developed countries are unwilling to accept
the procedures that the IMF itself has recommended.
We must recall that at the end of the last round of
back-door deals that elevated Kohler to the position
in question, the controversy it generated had forced
the IMF and the World Bank to set up separate Working
Groups to review the process for selection of the heads
of their respective institutions. The Groups had recommended
a procedure involving the creation of an advisory group
of eminent persons with adequate geographical balance
that would prepare an unranked shortlist for consideration
by the board of the institution concerned. Thus far,
there is no sign of this procedure being adopted for
selecting the next IMF head. In the event, we are likely
to see one more instance of lack of transparency and
openness in the selection procedure.
In
sum, despite the blatantly scandalous procedure being
adopted by the EU and the US, there are no signs of
voluntary reversal. This indicates how important the
IMF is to the developed world, even in a situation where
it is directly responsible for a small share of international
capital flows, the ratio of which to global trade has
fallen from close to 60 per cent in 1945 to a little
over three per cent currently. That importance comes
from the use of the IMF as an instrument to force developing
countries facing balance of payments difficulties to
adopt policies that help them little, but serves the
developed countries and international finance well.
If to ensure the persistence of such practices, an unacceptable
procedure is being sought to be adopted once again by
the US and the EU, it is time for developing country
citizens to organise and force their domestic governments
to come out united and strong against the scheme. They
should demand that their governments should refuse to
go along and put out an alternative list of credible
developing country nominees drafted by a group of eminent
persons from the South created for the purpose. At the
least, that would help highlight the duplicity involved
in these institutions preaching good governance through
the cut-and-pasted policy documents they routinely serve
up for the developing world. |