MacroScan -International Conference on Recovery or Bubble? The Global Economy Today, organised by International Development Economics Associates (IDEAs), Gulmohar Hall, Indian Habitat Centre, New Delhi, 29-30 January 2010.

While production and employment indicators in many countries point to stabilisation and recovery from the economic recession in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, there are debates about the economic recovery that is underway and fears of a new speculative boom on which the global recovery rides. These principally relate to the policy decisions taken in the US and many other countries in response to the financial crisis which involved easy monetary policy to save the financial system and real economy from collapse, and fiscal stimuli to trigger a recovery. There are signs of a bubble similar to the one which led to the credit-financed housing and consumer-spending boom that preceded the 2008 downturn. Meanwhile, there has been very little progress on the proposals on reforming the financial system to prevent the future occurrence of similar or related crisis. The proposed conference seeks to analyse the various contours of the global economic recovery underway such as the current growth trajectories of the major developed and emerging countries, the role of fiscal and monetary stimuli; and the continuing global imbalances. It would also analyse the post-crisis changes in financial structures and look at how to reform the financial regulatory framework so as to cushion the developing countries against future shocks.

Tentative Conference Plan

There will be two long sessions each day (morning and afternoon), split by a tea break. The first half of each session will have three presentations, followed by tea/coffee break. The second half will have discussion on the papers, led by a discussant. Some indicative themes are mentioned in the brackets; these are not exhaustive.

I. Is there a recovery? (US and Europe – differential movements of capital markets and activity/employment; Japan; China; Emerging markets)

Jan Kregel (University of Missouri, Kansas City and Levy Economics Institute, Bard College, New York); Rainer Kattel (Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia); K.S. Jomo (UN Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York)

II. Global imbalances (Exchange rates, macro aggregates, future trajectories)

Terry McKinley (Center for Development Policy and Research, SOAS, London), Andong Zhu (Tsinghua University, Beijing); Saul Keifman (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina); Jayati Ghosh (Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)

III. Finance and the real economy (The role of fiscal stimuli, future inflation potential)

Prabhat Patnaik (Kerala State Planning Board and Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi); Gabriel Palma (University of Cambridge); Rizal Ramli (Chairman, Komite Bangkit Indonesia)

IV. Changes in the financial sector (Required financial regulation; nature of changed financial structures post crisis)

Leonardo Burlamaqui (The Ford Foundation, Peace and Social Justice Program, Governance & Civil Society); Arturo O'Connell (Board of Governors, Central Bank of the Argentine Republic); C.P. Chandrasekhar (Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)

Those who are interested in participating in this conference are required to pre-register with IDEAs before 22 January, by sending an email to: delhiconf@gmail.com