The Real Problem with Free Trade
Sep 11th 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Even if free trade is ultimately broadly beneficial, the fact remains that as trade has become freer, inequality has worsened. One major reason for this is that current global trade rules have enabled a few large firms to capture an ever-larger share of value-added, at a massive cost to economies, workers, and the environment.
Who's Manipulating China's Exchange Rate?
Sep 11th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Contrary to western perceptions, the Chinese government's attempts to manage the exchange rate over the past few years have actually been directed to shoring up its value, rather than forcing depreciation.
Finance versus the People
Aug 27th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
There is a fundamental contradiction between democracy and neo-liberal capitalism. This contradiction can be seen from the exuberance of the market with the removal of a challenge to communal authoritarianism.
Factory Workers in India
Aug 14th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The number of workers in the industrial factory sector in India has grown since 2005-06, but other trends suggest that the bargaining power of such workers remains low.
Changes in the Structure of Employment in India
Aug 14th 2018, Vikas Rawal
An analysis of overall trends in the structure of employment, differentiated between men and women, between rural and urban workers, and across different sectors. With an emphasis on using age-cohort analysis, the dynamics of change in the employment structure are elucidated. The paper looks at changes in the overall size of the labour force and in work participation rates between 1993–94 and 2011–12 and talks about changes in employment structure across different industries as well as impact of improvement in educational attainment on employment conditions of young workers.
Institutional Investors and Indian Markets
Aug 1st 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
In these uncertain times, equity markets in India seemed to be protected from extreme volatility. But the factors behind such resilience could also result in sudden stops.
The Devaluation of the Academia
Jul 19th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
With detrimental policy decisions, including the proposed abolition of University Grants Commission, the targeting of the academic environment of the country is indicating a future of political control of and restricted freedom in academia. This phenomenon is actively contributing to the creation of a non-thinking society, something India can ill afford at the moment.
Did Developing Countries Really Recover from the Global Crisis?
Jul 17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A decade after the Global Financial Crisis, developing countries still bear the scars in the form of lower growth and lower investment rates.
A Legacy of Vulnerability
Jul 12th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Outstanding foreign bank claims that accumulated during the post-crisis period of easy and cheap credit are a source of vulnerability in the new environment.
Has Donald Trump Already Changed US Trade?
Jun 19th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Donald Trump is threatening to dismantle the current world trading system, but in his first year US trading patterns show strong continuity with the previous administration.
Trump Versus the Rest
Jun 18th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Donald Trump's protectionist stance at the G-7 summit is an example of how disunited capitalist countries are on a possible solution to the capitalist crisis. Because of the position of the US economy, Trump can afford to hold on to his protectionist policies while enlarging the fiscal deficit. What is wrong about this strategy is the possibility of long term repercussions, not just for America but for the capitalist world as a whole.
The Push for Privatizing Banks
Jun 11th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Historically, the push for bank privatization which has gathered momentum with a rising tendencies to take to neo-liberal policies. The arguments for privatization have been put forward time and time again, depending on economic circumstances. As international finance capital demands outright privatization to control financial resources and popularizes the conception of social interest best served through free finance, the NPA crisis in India has become the justification today.
The Misplaced Growth Discourse
Jun 5th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A close look at the nature of recent high growth rates provides ample cause for caution. The growth shows absence of dynamism and focus is on a few service sectors. It is being driven by consumption expenditure rather than investment which signals a probably fragile and unstable growth process.
Once again, the Oil Price Scare
May 22nd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As oil prices rise again, countries like India that had benefited from relatively low prices in recent years have to reconsider their growth and macroeconomic strategies.
Curbing Child Rape: Are we barking up the wrong tree?
May 11th 2018, Anamitra Roychowdhury
Raising the quantum of punishment in the face of public outrage will not work without fund allocation to improve police-civilian ratio and building judicial infrastructure.
Agricultural Tenancy in Contemporary India
May 9th 2018, Vaishali Bansal, Yoshifumi Usami and Vikas Rawal
The following report on "Agricultural Tenancy in Contemporary India" involved a detailed assessment of the 48th (1991-92), 59th (2002-03) and 70th (2012-13) rounds of the NSSO Surveys of Land and Livestock Holdings (NSSOSLLH) and includes detailed household-by-household corrections to remove a number of inconsistencies in the data. The main findings of the analysis point to significant marginalisation of landless poor households.
The Return of a Housing Bubble
May 8th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While household balance sheets are not rid of the debt accumulated in the years preceding the 2008 crisis, there are signs that purchases financed with new debt are leading to a fresh bubble in property markets.
The Collapse in Developing Country Export
Apr 25th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The period since 2010 has seen a collapse in developing country exports, most of all in South-South trade. Developing countries need to factor this into their future strategies.
Plurality in Teaching Macroeconomics
Apr 18th 2018, Rohit Azad
For vibrant policy making, an open-minded academic engagement between contrasting viewpoints is needed in macroeconomic education. However, there does not even exist a textbook that contrasts these contesting ideas in a tractable manner. This pedagogical paper is an attempt to plug that gap by presenting a comparative study across different traditions in macroeconomics in a unified framework, which can be developed into a semester-long intermediate-level course.
The True Face of the Global Recovery
Apr 11th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Optimistic assessments of the synchronised recovery across the world economy ignore the factors driving the weak upturn that make it fragile.
How Unequal are World Incomes?
Mar 27th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Global inequality has reduced as income growth shifts from the Northern countries to emerging markets like the BRICS. But this shift is quite limited and has not benefited the bulk of people in the developing world.
Market Fever and its Aftermath
Mar 13th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As fears of a market downturn cloud sentiment, the factors that led up to the bull run and their implications need to be studied and learnt from.
National Income in India: What's really growing?
Feb 28th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Recent income growth in India has been dominated by sectors that do not reflect real physical output increases – such as finance, insurance and real estate and public administration and defence.
Can Banking Recover?
Feb 27th 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Recovery of the banking sector will require stricter adherence to sound banking rules and more transparency from public and private players. And most of all, this applies to the regulators themselves and the government that frames all this.
The Aging of a Growth Engine
Feb 14th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
With the dollar value of exports declining, India's software sector faces a historical crisis which may worsen, given the protectionist trends in the US and other uncertainties.
A Note On Estimating Income Inequality across countries using PPP Exchange Rates
Feb 1st 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Private banks, especially foreign ones have relied on off-balance sheet liabilities to earn revenues and profits, courting risk and leaving the business of banking proper largely to the public sector banks.
The Financialization of Finance? Demonetization and the Dubious Push to Cashlessness in India
Feb 1st 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
This Debate contribution describes the promotion of digital rather than cash payments as a form of the financialization of finance, in its role as a payments system, with reference to recent Indian experience. The obsession with digital transactions as a marker of social and material progress is misplaced; it may become yet another means by which finance extracts rentier incomes out of relatively poor populations.
The other Face of Private Banking
Jan 16th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Private banks, especially foreign ones have relied on off-balance sheet liabilities to earn revenues and profits, courting risk and leaving the business of banking proper largely to the public sector banks.
The Demise of Bank Credit
Jan 2nd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Growing economies generally show increasing deployment of bank credit – but in India this has been decreasing for years and recently has been almost flat. What does this suggest about the growth process and the health of the Indian economy?
The Dollar Drain
Dec 19th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A recent spike in the volume of foreign exchange outflows under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme suggests that India is vulnerable to large scale capital flight, if economic uncertainty increases.
Do Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates Mislead on Incomes? The case of China
Dec 5th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The use of exchange rates based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) to compare incomes across countries and over time is now standard practice. But this may lead to excessively inflated incomes for poorer countries and not capture the real changes over time.
Indian IT hits a Speed Bump
Nov 21st 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A sharp deceleration in growth and restricted employment expansion in the IT sector, India’s post-liberalisation showpiece, has implications beyond the industry’s boundaries.
Monitoring the Evolution of Latin American Economies using a Flow-of-funds Framework
Nov 9th 2017, Esteban Peez Caldentey and Manuel Cruz Luzuriaga
Flow-of-funds accounting permits to monitor the financial sector in terms of flows and stocks and to analyze its relationship with the real sector. Traditionally practised in developed nations, this accounting has not experienced a parallel development in developing countries. In order to fill this gap, the paper undertakes the construction of a data base of flow-of-funds account matrices for various Latin American and Asian countries, exemplifying their use for the study of financial crisis in these regions.
Unbalanced Global Growth
Nov 8th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The distribution of the weak global economic recovery since the Great Recession provides little reason for optimism about the future.
The Crisis in Agriculture
Oct 24th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The dilution of government intervention in the form of minimum support prices, procurement and public distribution is undermining the medium-term viability of agricultural production in India.
Widowhood in India
Oct 11th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Public policy has largely ignored specific problems of widows in India. And given their numbers, this exclusion can prove costly for society in general.
The Emerging Crisis in Real Estate
Sep 26th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The slow down and partial crisis in India's real estate sector reflects the challenges facing post-reform growth in India.
Foreign Investor Appetite
Sep 14th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A brief decline in portfolio inflows into equity markets has raised the question whether foreign investment flows into India have peaked. The evidence of investments in debt markets suggest otherwise. That, however, need not be all good news.
Problems with Neoclassical Economics
Sep 5th 2017, Amiya Kumar Bagchi
While there are a few examples of successive use of mathematics in forming empirically tested mainstream theorems, excessive misuse of this tool in neoclassical economics leave little coherence between its "rational being" and realism. In fact, many examples prove that it fails to observe the tenets of its own canon, and people are compelled to consume beyond their need and capacity, even in the face of mounting unemployment.
The Triple Talaq Verdict: Victory in one battle in a much longer war
Aug 29th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The Supreme Court's welcome verdict in the Triple Talaq case should bring public attention to the problems and needs of separated and divorced women across all religious communities in India.
What is Really Happening in Indian Manufacturing?
Aug 16th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Data on organised manufacturing production do not really capture the impact of demonetisation and its effects on demand, but looking at some sub-sectors of consumer non-durable goods provides more insight.
'Riskless Capitalism' in India: Bank credit and economic activity
Aug 7th 2017, Rohit Azad, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta
The Indian growth story of the 2000s' cannot be over-simplistically explained as a result of "market-oriented" reforms. Public sector bank credit-financed investments, particularly in the infrastructure sector, played a significant role in sustaining growth, most crucially after the global economic crisis. Such a growth trajectory, however, proved to be unsustainable with the expansionary phase coming to an end in 2011–12 and bad loans piling up in the banking system.
Growth in the Time of a Credit Squeeze
Aug 1st 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
GDP growth figures for the last few years have camouflaged a deceleration in credit growth that has affected all but the retail loans segment quite adversely.
Demography and care in Europe: The impact of social relations
Jul 18th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Trends in social relations are both affected by and impact upon economic changes. These in turn have an important bearing on desirable patterns of spending in the care economy, as suggested by an examination of recent marital trends in Europe.
On the Economic Implications of Restrictions on Cow Slaughter
Jul 11th 2017, Vikas Rawal
India's livestock economy is among the biggest in the world. A ban on cow slaughter would either result in more and more unproductive animals being killed in most unscientific and cruel ways or would entail such a high cost for maintaining unproductive animals that cattle rearing would cease to be a profitable enterprise for farm households. Restrictions being imposed on cow slaughter and the actions of the cow vigilantes would deal a serious blow to the agrarian economy and in particular to the livelihoods of the poor and middle peasants in rural India.
China's Labour Market Conundrum
Jul 5th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Has China's labour market reached a point where long years of high growth have led to demand outstripping supply, resulting in a sharp rise in wages?
Crop Prices and Farmers' Unrest
Jun 20th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Distressed farmers are demanding loan waivers, but that should not deflect attention from what needs to be done and undone to address the roots of the agrarian crisis.
The Unsustainable US Recovery
Jun 6th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Even the limited and unsteady recovery of growth in the US a decade after the 2008 crisis is based on an increase in debt that renders it unsustainable.
Where will Global Demand come from?
May 23rd 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As the US reduces its role as engine of global demand, there are no signs that other economies will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist approach exemplified by Germany is creating net global slowdown.
Lopsided Industrialisation
May 9th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Recent trends in the organisational form of units in the registered manufacturing sector suggest that India's factory sector is not just abnormal but backward to boot.
The De-digitisation of India
Apr 25th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Despite the government's efforts to digitise the Indian economy forcibly, non-cash forms of payment appear to have declined as more currency has been made available to the public. This points to major flaws in the government's coercive approach and the underlying rationale for cashlessness.
The State in Chinese Banking
Apr 11th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
After four decades of financial reform China's banking sector is still dominated by publicly owned institutions. But continuity in ownership does not mean that banking behaviour does not change.
ICT: Implications of imbalanced growth
Mar 14th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
An analysis of India's ICT performance suggests that software export success tends to hide both imbalances in production and their adverse balance of payments fall-out.
Marital Breakdown in India
Feb 28th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Although divorce rates are low in India, separation is the dominant form of marital dissolution, and this is especially problematic for women because of the uncertain legal status and lack of rights.
Bond Market Reversal
Feb 14th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Post-Trump expectations of a shift back from an easy monetary policy with low interest rates to reliance on a fiscal stimulus for growth are reversing trends in global bond markets.
Spreading Light: Are the Modi government's electricity promises being fulfilled?
Jan 31st 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The government's claim that it has ensured electricity for all does not seem to be warranted by the evidence.
Waning Stimuli
Jan 17th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Banks strapped with stressed assets are holding back on lending, dampening in the process the principal stimulus to growth in recent years. And there are no alternative routes to growth in sight.
The Growth of Digital Payments
Jan 3rd 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
In the context of the failed demonetisation and continued shortage of currency, the government continues to push cashless digital payments. What are the implications for Indians?
Age of Uncertainty
Dec 23rd 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
With the US Federal Reserve deciding to exit the era of low interest rates even when growth in the rest of the world economy falters or remains sluggish, economic uncertainty intensifies.
Can Developing Asia Hold its Ground?
Dec 6th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight from Asia points to investor concerns about both political processes in the big Asian developing economies and medium-term economic prospects.
India's Export Collapse
Nov 30th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A peculiar combination of factors, besides the global recession, explains India's poor export performance in recent times.
How Successful is China's Economic Rebalancing?
Nov 8th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
China's rapid economic growth has slowed recently - but does this reflect the desired rebalancing of the economy away from investment to consumption and wage-led growth?
Housing Market Frenzy in China
Oct 13th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The urban housing market in China is experiencing a bubble that is driving property prices to unbelievable levels in some of the major cities. But the divergence in recent trends in house prices suggests that this bubble may soon burst.
The Pulses Conundrum
Sep 29th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As inflation in the prices of pulses gives way to a price decline, a misplaced argument that the government should not regulate the private trade to curb speculation and stabilise prices is being expressed.
India and Indians at Seventy Plus
Sep 8th 2016, Jayati Ghosh
For the majority of Indians aged 70 or more, their sheer survival may be the most positive aspect of their lives since the state, instead of taking any measures of social protection, puts the burden of their care on families without considering their economic situation.
Unexpected Inflation
Sep 2nd 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The return of inflation, even if moderate, at a time when India is experiencing a normal monsoon and after a long period of inflation-targeted monetary policy is surprising.
Care Work as the Work of the Future
Aug 16th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As technological change threatens many different kinds of jobs, the significance of direct face-to-face interaction required in much care work means that it is unlikely to be as adversely affected. What does this mean for the future requirements of care workers?
The Return to Retail Lending
Aug 2nd 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
After having retreated from retail lending in the years since 2005-06, banks burdened by NPAs in areas like infrastructure seem to be returning to the retail market. How far can this go?
25 Years of Economic Reforms: Agriculture
Jul 27th 2016, Jayati Ghosh
The inability to resolve the pressing concerns with respect to food production, distribution and availability is one of the important failures of the entire economic reform process.
The Real Banking Problem
Jul 12th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Recognizing bad assets and writing them off may not resolve the banking problem, since the new financial order requires banks to lend to those who seem more prone to default.
The Global "New Normal" is Not New- But it is still a real concern
Jun 21st 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Global growth rates of the last five years are similar to those in the past, but now they are accompanied by unprecedented monetary expansion that seems to have little impact.
Bad Loans, Lending Behaviour and Growth
Jun 7th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As interested observers focus on the bad loans, accumulating in the books of India's commercial banks, the implications it has for lending behaviour and growth are less explored.
And Now, Price Deflation in India and China?
May 31st 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While it was presumed the developing world, especially the more prominent emerging markets, were less prone to price deflation, data from China and India show trends of declining producer prices.
A Picture of Inequality
May 10th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The government's decision to release income class-wise details on tax returns allows an assessment of the extent of inequality in the distribution of income among tax payers.
When Commodity Prices Fall
Apr 26th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The decline in primary commodity prices over the past four years particularly last year, shows that financialisation of commodities has amplified and exaggerated instabilities and fluctuations.
On Data and Decision-making
Apr 13th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Wide differences in official data based on series with different base years or from alternative sources lead to questions about their relevance for decision making.
How much has Global Economic Power Really Shifted?
Mar 31st 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
This article analyses the significance of shift in global economic power from the North to the South and what exactly it means for the countries in developing Asia like India.
Interest Rate Conundrum
Mar 15th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
With interest rates and bond yields turning negative in many developed countries, the efficacy of monetary policy as a countercyclical instrument is in question.
Capital Bleeds from Emerging Asia
Feb 2nd 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight, in 2015, from the emerging markets, especially those in Asia, was much worse than has been previously estimated. This augurs ill for the coming year.
Is the Rupee "Weakening"?
Jan 19th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While much concern being expressed about the weakening rupee, it is not the past record that is the problem; rather, its likely direction in the near future is a cause for worry.
Growth, Imports and Inequality: Explaining the persistently high trade deficit in India
Dec 31st 2015, Zico Dasgupta and Subhanil Chowdhury
This paper provides an explanation of the asymmetric relationship between the GDP growth rate and the trade deficit and looks at the mechanism through which the trade deficit in India has increased.
Stock Market: Does patience pay
Dec 28th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The perception that investors looking for above average returns can turn to the stock market so long as they are willing to stay invested for extended periods doesn't hold.
The Continuing Debt Problem in Asia
Dec 8th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Private household debt is going to be a major concern for many Asian economies as excessive household debt and falling realty prices combine to create a potentially potent mix.
Capital Goods Conundrum
Nov 24th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While the Government appears to recognise the importance of expanding and strengthening India's capital goods industry, the policy signals it sends seem contrary and confusing.
The Shrinking of Global Imbalances
Nov 10th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Global imbalances in the current account do appear to have come down in the aggregate but the pattern and the outcomes are different from what was anticipated.
Debt and Asia's Success
Nov 3rd 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
An improved dataset from the Bank of International Settlements reveals that the post crisis ‘success' of Asia in terms of growth was built on a pile of debt.
Understanding "Secular Stagnation"
Oct 15th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
This article discusses the issue of the "new normal" of low or stagnating output growth that the analysts and reports of international organisations are talking about.
Mutual Fund Mystery
Sep 29th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Underlying a recent surge in assets managed by mutual funds is a revival of retail investor interest in equity at a time when foreign institutional investors are turning bearish.
Assessing a Volatile Market
Sep 11th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Increased volatility in the Indian stock and debt markets and its consequences, question whether these markets, as structured now, deliver positive net economic benefits.
China's RenMinBi Strategys
Aug 18th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The sudden depreciation of Chinese currency, that has impacted global markets, may be an attempt to revive export growth and provide stimulus to growth to the flagging economy.
China's Troubled Stock Markets
Aug 4th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The boom bust cycles in China's stock markets question the government's view that there is much to be gained from deregulating them.
Pachhwara Coal Mines, Jharkhand: Privatisation of coal mining and rights of adivasis
Jul 21st 2015, Vikas Rawal and Prakash Viplav
Privatisation of coal mining in Amrapara has facilitated a loot of national resources and deprived the poor adivasi peasants of the benefits that rightfully belong to them.
Economic Forecasts and Reality: Should we believe the World Bank?
Jun 23rd 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The World Bank's latest projections for GDP growth are pessimistic, especially for developing countries. But given its poor track record, how far they are reliable is doubtful.
Looking to the US
Jun 9th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
In a curious turn of events, the US economy rather than the Asian emerging markets is now expected to lead a global recovery. But the reason and implications are not so clear.
How Food was Moved to the Margins of the New Household Budget
May 29th 2015, Rahul Goswami
An enquiry into the private consumption expenditure indicates that a huge majority of India's population are experiencing food insecurity in one or several forms.
No Support for the Rupee
May 12th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Recently released merchandise trade figures for the first half of 2014-15, suggest that trade fundamentals offer no support to the rupee under strain because of an FII retreat.
The Bursting of China's Housing Bubble
Apr 28th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The party is over in China's real estate markets, but the policy makers are trying to revive it through financial deregulation and monetary easing that is unlikely to work.
Will the Recent Changes in Labour Laws Usher in 'Acche Din' for the Working Class?
Apr 23rd 2015, Anamitra Roychowdhury
The recent changes in the labour laws are overwhelmingly in favour of the employers and detrimental to the cause of the working class.
Indian Exceptionalism
Apr 15th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Official satisfaction with the decision by Moody's to raise India's sovereign rating may be ignoring the possibility that the agency missed an important source of vulnerability.
China and India in the World Economy
Mar 31st 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As there is excitement about the possibility of India overtaking China in terms of GDP growth, it is useful to remind ourselves of the relative positions of the two economies.
Recapitalising India's Public Sector Banks
Mar 24th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The push to recapitalise public sector banks by raising capital through equity issues, on the grounds that Basel III needs make it unavoidable, may be a route to privatisation.
Ever Expanding Debt Bubbles in China and India
Mar 3rd 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Even though China appears to have a much higher level of debt- GDP ratio, India's debt situation with much lower levels of corporate debt may prove to be more problematic.
Households and India's Stock Markets
Feb 17th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Whilst India's stock markets touch dizzying heights, households are withdrawing from the market as they are influenced more by returns registered in short periods.
Oil: The big 100 per cent story
Feb 2nd 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
In a puzzling development, some financial markets registered a decline in the wake of the recent dramatic fall in oil prices. So, is the oil price fall not all good news?
Who's Really Paying for Oil?
Jan 7th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As the central government raises excise duties on petroleum products yet again, it is the poor that end up paying the price.
Where's the "Missing Middle" in Indian Industry?
Dec 9th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While the problem of missing middle is taken for granted in the Indian industry, official data reveal that medium sized firms actually dominate in both employment and output.
Debt in Asian Vulnerability
Nov 25th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Amidst stock market euphoria, the growing international debt exposure of certain Asian countries, particularly Hong Kong, China and India, is a matter of major concern.
Recent Changes in Labour Laws: An exploratory note
Nov 12th 2014, Anamitra Roychowdhury
This article explores the possible implications of amending the Contract Labour Act, 1970 and questions the rationale behind amending the Industrial Disputes Act, 1947.
The Difficult Art of Economic Diversification
Nov 11th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Indonesia provides a stark example of an economy that diversified its pattern of trade and domestic production, only to relapse back into a dependence on primary exports.
Exploiting the Oil Price Crash
Oct 30th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The government has decided to exploit the recent sharp decline in oil prices to push deregulation. But this may not help growth nor prove wise in the medium term.
The Cotton Conundrum
Oct 24th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
China's decision to liquidate its large raw cotton stocks accumulated as part of a policy of supporting domestic production is hurting the world's cotton exporters.
Factory Wages in India
Oct 14th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The demand for labour market reform is absurd as the wages of the workers account for less than half the total wage and salary bill in the organised industry.
Is Rising Income Inequality Inevitable?
Sep 16th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
In spite of globalisation and technological change, patterns of inequality within a country reflect internal political economy, and can be changed by political choice.
The Bond Rush in Indian Markets
Sep 9th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The government's incentives to foreign investors have resulted in a sharp rise in FPI investments in India's debt market that does impose costs on the nation.
Are Women Really Working Less in India?
Aug 21st 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Recent NSS data indicate significant declines in Female work force participation rates with a shift from paid work to unpaid domestic activities for both rural and urban women.
India's High Technology Deficit
Aug 5th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
There has been a gradual decline of US and EU dominance over hitech manufacturing, with emerging economies posing a challenge. But, unfortunately, India has lagged far behind.
Money, Debt, and Deficit
Jul 30th 2014, Arnab K. Chowdhury
As debt is necessary to sustain the monetary system, hypothetical repayment of all debts can make the monetary system collapse and has the capacity to stall the real economy.
India as a Manufacturing Hub
Jul 8th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The strategy of the new government to revive India's manufacturing sector by exploiting global value chains is well known, but how much success this will bring is doubtful.
The Way Forward for the Economy
Jul 7th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The Indian economy cannot be revived by the neo liberal policies of austerity and incentives as only fiscal intervention can break the deadlock of stagflationary tendencies.
Locking Out Financial Regulation
Jun 25th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The proposed deal on trade in financial services that has just been exposed by Wikileaks has serious implications even for countries that are not involved in the negotiations.
India's External Resiliences
Jun 17 th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The fall in the current account deficit of India may seem heartening but this is possibly because of a temporary respite in the areas where India's vulnerability resides.
UPA-2 and Welfare Schemes
May 29th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Contrary to the argument that UPA-2 wasted too much money on "populist" schemes, it actually neglected and spent less on these important welfare initiatives than UPA-1.
Contract Workers in Manufacturing
Apr 29th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Contractualisation of work has become a pervasive feature of both public and private sectors in all three major sectors of Indian industry.
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