The
UPA government’s commitment to increasing the share of public spending
on education to 6 per cent of GDP has been expressed in the National
Common Minimum Programme. This is a very important commitment, especially
given the huge shortfalls in good quality education to the population,
and has clear implications for future growth as well. It could be
argued that, given the current levels of public spending on education
(at 3.2 per cent of GDP) and the international average of such spending
(at 5 per cent of GDP), this is a very high figure to aim at, with
unnecessary ambition at the current juncture given the known fiscal
constraints and low prevailing tax-GDP ratios. However, it can be
argues that given the inadequate state of education in the country,
it may even be necessary to aim at a higher proportion than 6 per
cent. In any case, there are several reasons why this is both a necessary
and desirable goal for the medium term.
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Quite apart from its social and economic effects, education must
be seen as a basic human right, which is recognised in the Universal
Declaration on Human Rights but which has still not been made available
to all citizens of India. In fact, the government of India has still
failed to meet the commitment made in the Constitution at the time
of constituting the Republic more than five decades ago, of providing
universal primary education to all our children.
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Not only is an unacceptably large proportion of our population still
illiterate, but the gaps in provision of education are huge at all
levels. There is major excess demand for quality public education,
ranging from pre-school and elementary schooling to higher education,
technical training and professional courses.
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It
is well known and now widely accepted that investment in education
is critically important for the future economic growth and social
cohesiveness of society. Many of the potential payoffs to society
from various types of public investment in education are not immediately
apparent but are nevertheless very important. (For example, the
much hyped software boom itself reflects at least partly the earlier
public investment in IITs.) Further, there are huge advantages to
society in having the general level of education in society improve,
not only because the quality of the workforce improves, but because
various other aspects such as health, nutrition and sanitation are
positively affected, and also because educated citizens can be more
effective participants in a democratic civil society.
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It is obvious in theory and evident in practice that this is one
area in which relying on private provision will lead to very substantial
under-provision and socially suboptimal outcomes, because the social
returns to education far outweigh the private returns. Relying on
private profitability to determine investment in this area, even
in higher education, is socially inefficient and does not ensure
future knowledge needs, which must necessarily be determined not
just according to current market considerations but through some
sort of plan-based assessment of the likely future requirements
of society. In any case, profit-based provision of education typically
excludes a major part of the population and does not ensure either
merit or adequate representation by gender, class or social group,
making in undemocratic in content. This is not to deny the usefulness
of private investment, but simply to state that this cannot replace
public expenditure in this area.
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While
public spending of education typically tends to increase with per
capita GDP, this is not the inevitable pattern and can be influenced
by public policy attitudes. In fact several developing countries
that have made very substantial public investment in education,
have subsequently reaped the benefits in terms of faster and more
broad-based growth. Thus, in some countries of East Asia, public
spending on education had increased to as much as 8-10 per cent
of GDP during the 1980s and first half of the 1990s, allowing these
countries not only to improve the quality of their workforce dramatically,
but also subsequently to take advantage of this to promote economic
activities that involve moving up the international value chain.
Current
levels of public education spending
Although education is a concurrent subject in the Constitution, at
present the bulk of public education spending is undertaken by the
State Governments. Within this, most is on revenue expenditure, of
which the largest single item is salary payments. Table 1 indicates
the level of total public spending on education by Centre and States
in 2004-05. This is dominated by spending of the Education Departments
at Centre and State level, but also includes expenditure on education
made by 30 other government departments.
Table
1: Government Expenditure on Education, 2004-05 |
|
Revenue
expenditure |
Capital
Expenditure |
Total
expenditure
|
Centre
(Rs. Crore)
|
19,141 |
Neg. |
19,141 |
Centre
(per cent of GDP)
|
0.62 |
Neg. |
0.62 |
States
(Rs. Crore) |
79,913 |
866 |
80,796 |
States
(per cent of GDP)
|
2.57 |
0.03 |
2.6 |
Total
(Rs. Crore)
|
99,055 |
866 |
99,937 |
Total
(per cent of GDP)
|
3.19 |
0.03 |
3.22 |
Source: Analysis of Budgeted Expenditure
on Education, 2002-03 to 2004-05, MHRD
The
very low extent of capital spending is worth noting, especially given
the very large infrastructure gaps in the country. There are still
large numbers of villages and urban settlements without government
schools in the approachable vicinity, as noted below. There is also
substantial overcrowding in existing schools. Around 18 per cent of
rural primary schools still do not have any building, and another
20 per cent function out of only one room, which would clearly affect
both the quality and effectiveness of teaching in such schools. The
inadequacy of other basic infrastructure (separate toilets for girls
and boys, clean drinking water supply, electrical fittings and fans,
etc.) not to mention advanced teaching aids including computers, is
also well-established not only for many primary schools but also for
a substantial proportion of secondary schools and institutions of
higher learning. Clearly, in the initial phases of increased public
spending on education, there is therefore a strong case for increased
capital expenditure particularly to meet these very obvious requirements.
As Chart 1 indicates, the bulk of public spending is directed to elementary
education, the revenue expenditure on which accounts for more than
40 per cent of all public spending on education. However, even in
this area, the current availability is far below need, and there are
important issues of poor quality some of which also stem simply from
inadequacy of resources. However, it should be noted that this distribution
of public spending is unlike many middle-income developing countries
which place a larger proportion of public resources on higher and
technical education. In the urge to ensure universal and compulsory
primary education (which is an essential goal) the importance of increasing
public investment in technical and higher education must not be ignored.
Implications
of increasing public spending to desired ratio of GDP
The stated goal of the Government would imply a near doubling of the
current education expenditure as a share of GDP. Obviously. this cannot
occur within one year, as there is also the question of absorptive
capacity. If we suppose that the share increases gradually (as defined
below) rather than immediately, and that nominal GDP (at market prices)
increases at 12 per cent per annum as the Planning Commission has
projected, then we get the following total amounts. Obviously the
bulk of these resources (around 80 per cent as is currently the case)
must be devolved to States.
Table
2: Projected Increases in Public Education Expenditure |
|
2004-05 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
2009-10
|
2010-11 |
GDP
|
3105,512 |
3478,173 |
3895,554 |
4363,020 |
4886,583 |
5472,973 |
6129,730 |
Education
spending as %
of GDP
|
3.5 |
4 |
4.5 |
5 |
5.5 |
6 |
6 |
Education
spending in
Rs. crore |
99,937 |
139,127 |
175,300 |
218,15 |
268,762 |
328,378 |
367,784 |
%
share of capital spending
in total
|
0.87 |
0.9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
Projected
capital expenditure
|
869 |
1,252 |
10,518 |
10,908 |
10,750 |
9,851 |
7,356 |
Projected
revenue expenditure
|
99,068 |
137,875 |
164,782 |
207,244 |
258,012 |
318,527 |
360,428 |
Note: Projection of GDP at current market prices.
Currently,
capital expenditure is only 0.87 per cent of total public spending
on education. However, the gaps in physical infrastructure which can
only be met with increased capital spending are very large. Therefore
in the initial phases of the expansion, a greater proportion of resources
must be devoted to capital expenditure, which could then taper off
(still to a higher proportion than currently) over time.
The
share of this expenditure to be allocated to different heads must
be based on various criteria, which include:
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the immediate need to fulfil certain constitutional and legal norms
and obligations, including for child care (Supreme Court ICDS judgements),
universal access to education (Right to Schooling legislation) and
school meals provision (Supreme Court judgements), etc.
-
the assessment of physical requirement for education infrastructure
based on existing gaps, such as ensuring pre-primary and primary
schools in every village, access to secondary schools within 5 km
of habitation, etc.
-
the
projection of changing demographic structure and the consequent
increase in age-cohorts requiring schooling at various levels.
-
the need to ensure adequate access to higher education to reach
at least the minimum norm of 8 per cent of population of relevant
age group (15-24 years), and preferably the international norm of
15 per cent (the current ratio in India is 3 per cent).
-
the perceived social requirement for various types of technical
and professional skills in the country in future.
-
the need to ensure at least some world class institutions of higher
education and learning with international quality of physical and
intellectual resources.
Legal
obligations of the Government
The most pressing immediate legal obligation relates to providing
mid-day meals in primary schools. The cost of this at existing rates,
for 2006-07 has been estimated at Rs. 3452 crore. However, this is based
on the existing number of schools and does not take into account either
the need to increase the number of schools and school-going children
so as to provide education for all, or the need to repay arrears to
FCI for past food disbursement. Therefore the actual number may be closer
to Rs. 5000 crore required per annum at current prices.
The need to ensure universal schooling facilities at least at elementary
level, followed by eventual fulfilment of the norm of 9 years schooling
as envisaged in the Right to Education Bill, will require very large
increases in physical infrastructure are described below. In addition
there will be need for substantial increase in teaching staff and making
available pedagogic material, newly developed and in translation. Currently
only 56 per cent of children in the age group 5-9 years are attending
school, according to the Census. Ensuring that all such children are
in school will require a near doubling of existing teaching staff. Since
in any case existing schools are understaffed and teacher-student ratios
are very low, an actual doubling of teaching staff may be required to
meet the national norm of 1 teacher per 40 students that GoI has declared
to UNESCO. In addition, in several states, there is a dual system of
elementary education, with ''parallel schools'' operating under Sarva
Shiksha Abhiyan and similar schemes, under which teachers are not paid
salaries but ''honorariums'' at much lower rates. Bringing the remuneration
for such teachers into line with other teachers will require further
allocation for salaries. Assuming that salary costs are currently around
80 per cent of revenue expenditure of the education departments, this
will imply a doubling (in constant price terms) within 5 years.
This means that revenue expenditure will have to increase by at least
the amounts described in Table 3 in order to meet the legal obligations
of the Central Government. (Since 0-4 years and 5-9 years both amount
to 11.3 per cent of population according to Census 2001, there is no
estimated increase in the number of elementary school age children over
the XIth Plan period.) This means that around 80 per cent of the projected
increase in revenue expenditure will have to cater to meeting the legal
requirements of the Government regarding primary schooling, leaving
only 20 per cent of the increase for secondary, higher and technical
education.
It should be noted that other concurrent costs of teaching have not
been included in this, such as teaching material, running expenses of
schools, etc., and that this would imply a substantially larger amount
of revenue expenditure. Further, there would be additional costs in
terms of teacher training etc., which are required to ensure quality
education. This suggests that even raising total public expenditure
on education to 6 per cent of GDP over the XIth Plan would still leave
some gaps in provision of universal schooling and in quality of education
(which is certainly affected by resources even if resources are not
the only factor).
Table
3: Financial Effect of Meeting Government’s Legal Obligations |
|
2004-05 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
2009-10
|
2010-11 |
Rev
exp of Education Dept
|
80,287 |
89,921 |
100,712 |
106,755 |
119,565 |
133,913 |
149,982 |
Per
cent assumed increase
in salary payments
|
|
|
33 |
66 |
100 |
100 |
120 |
Salary
payment increase in
Rs. crore |
|
|
26,588 |
56,366 |
95,652 |
107,130 |
143,983 |
Rev
exp with increase in
salary payments
|
|
|
127,300 |
163,121 |
215,217 |
241,043 |
293,966 |
School
meals
|
|
5,000 |
5,300 |
5,618 |
5,955 |
6,312 |
6,691 |
Total
rev exp
|
|
|
132,600 |
168,739 |
221,172 |
247,356 |
300,657 |
Per
cent of projected total
revenue expenditure |
|
|
80.5 |
81.4 |
85.7 |
77.6 |
83.4 |
Some
estimates of physical need for education infrastructure
If
we assume that the entire population of children between the ages 5
to 14 years should be in school by the end of the XIth Plan, this creates
a minimum need for physical infrastructure. Accordingly the financial
requirement is estimated in Table 4.
Table
4: Financial Cost of New Classrooms Required |
|
2004-05
|
Population
aged 5-9 years
|
1162,32,967 |
Population
aged 10-14 years
|
1105,93,462 |
Total
population aged 5-14 years |
22,68,26,429 |
Classrooms
required (at 40 students per room)
|
56,70,661 |
Currently
available classrooms
|
34,00,000 |
Funds
already allocated for additional classrooms
|
6,75,000 |
Gap
of required classrooms |
15,95,661 |
Estimated
cost per classroom (2005 prices) |
Rs.
1.5 lakh |
Total
cost for required classrooms |
Rs.
23,934 crore |
Per
cent of total projected capital expenditure |
48.5
% |
Based on 2001 Census and Dept of Education estimates
is apparent that just meeting this basic requirement would cover nearly
half of the projected increase in capital expenditure over the XIth
Plan period.. There is the further issue that many rural schools are
situated in distant places which reduce the access of rural children.
According to the NSS 58th Round, around 20 per cent of villages do not
have pre-primary facilities even within 2 km of the village, and 12
per cent do not have primary schools within 2 km. This is an especially
important issue for girl children, which makes the physical requirement
for more school even greater.
All
this has still left out the issue of physical requirement for secondary
education and for institutions of higher learning, which will be even
larger than currently because of the change in demographic structure.
This will imply additional capital and revenue expenditure to the tune
of at least 2 per cent of GDP over the XIth Plan period, despite the
fact that most of the projected amount can easily be swallowed up by
the requirements of elementary education.
|