It
is a proposal that refuses to die. When Finance Ministers of the overactive
G20 met at St Andrews, Scotland in early November, the UK's Prime
Minister Gordon Brown decided to use what would be the last meeting
under his presidency to make a case for taxing finance. His argument
was simple. Over the last two years, fragility or failure in the banking
system has necessitated using tax payers' money to bail out banks.
And the evidence seems to be that once the losses of banks resulting
from the speculative fervour of managers in search of bonuses had
been absorbed and their capital base refurbished, these managers or
their replacements have gone back to playing the same game and earning
similar bonuses, keeping the prospect of future failure alive. It
is obviously unjust and even infeasible to repeatedly call upon the
public at large to pay for the errors, forced or unforced, of the
bankers. So post-crisis financial reform, Brown had argued, must include
measures that require banks to pay for the (extremely high) likelihood
that their actions would burden tax payers with the costs of rescuing
banks in future. In words that caught the world's attention he said:
''It cannot be acceptable that the benefits of success in [banking]
are reaped by the few but the costs of its failure are borne by all
of us''. Impeccable logic, anyone would say.
There were four such measures to deal with the problem that Brown
had tentatively advanced. One was an extension of the current remedy
of forcing banks to provide for potential losses in advance. World
governments should consider requiring banks whose failure was seen
as being systemically damaging to hold more capital to cover potential
losses than required of other less systemically relevant banks. However,
if the crisis has taught us anything, it is that this idea of differential
levels of ''capital adequacy'' would take us nowhere. If systemically
risky banks are to provision for a higher level of losses, the question
that would arise is how high is ''higher''? This is because, as became
clear from banks' involvement with the shadow banking system through
on- and off-balance sheet transactions, managers seeking to increase
profits would siphon money into the less regulated and more profitable
entities so as to earn revenues they cannot legitimately seek. The
higher is the pre-emption of their resources for insurance purposes,
the greater would be the desire to indulge in such activity. In the
event, if and when the more risky banks fail the ripple effects would
engulf the systemically risky institutions as well, and whatever level
of capital adequacy is specified may prove inadequate. Therefore,
as Nouriel Roubini, among others, still argues: ''The true solution
to the too-big-to-fail problem requires more radical choices. In addition
to an insolvency regime, such institutions should be broken up and
unsecured creditors of insolvent institutions should have their claim
automatically converted into equity. A separation of commercial banking
and risky investment banking should also be considered. Thus, some
variant of the Glass-Steagall Act should be reintroduced.''
Two other variants of the insurance scheme were advanced by Gordon
Brown and were also non-controversial, even if not likely to be immediately
taken up. One was the creation of a pool of money financed by banks
and/or their customers that could be used to finance orderly bail-outs
as and when required. And the other was mandating contingent capital
requirements or the holding of assets whose value or benefit is realised
only when an event that is uncertain occurs. These are measures similar
to deposit insurance, excepting that it is not just depositors who
are insured but the banks themselves. The difficulty with these schemes
is that there is no guarantee that they would provide adequately for
the costs of a failure. The advantage they have is that they are likely
to garner international support, since they limit, while leaving open,
the burden that would be imposed on financial institutions today to
meet costs that may have to be met tomorrow. From the point of view
of finance there is ample scope to negotiate and render these costs
small enough to bear for institutions that are too big to fail.
In the event, the really controversial of Brown's proposals was his
fourth option of imposing a tax on financial transactions that could
either be used to create a contingency fund or be spent on socially-beneficial
projects so that taxpayers are compensated today for any costs they
may be called upon to bear in future. The idea is not new and was,
therefore, immediately labelled the ''Tobin Tax'', even though it
differs significantly from the tax on foreign currency transactions
that was proposed by Nobel Prize winning economist James Tobin. After
the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement and the shift to floating
exchange rates in the early 1970s, Tobin proposed a small levy on
transactions in foreign exchange markets to discourage speculation
and endow currency markets with a degree of stability. The proposal,
which was questioned by some who felt that it attempted to throw grains
of sand in the wheels of finance when what was required were boulders,
was never taken up because it needed to be implemented by all countries
simultaneously if it was to be successful. Belgium did subsequently
pass a law to implement a Tobin-type tax, but made its implementation
contingent on a similar law being adopted in all countries in the
euro zone. But that was not to be, since such consensus was lacking.
However, the idea was revived after the Southeast Asian financial
crisis of 1997, when it became clear that once restrictions were removed
on cross-border flows of financial capital, speculative flows seeking
to profit from differentials in the rates of return across countries
and sectors could result in boom-bust cycles with severely damaging
consequences for the real economy. The idea of the tax, while retaining
the Tobin label, was extended to curb speculative capital flows by
reducing their profitability and was promoted by stating that the
revenues collected from such a tax could be used to further development
in the world's poorest countries. In the process, support for the
Tobin tax was substantially enhanced and was seen as akin to opposition
to policies and institutions (such as the World Bank and the IMF)
that were for reduced controls on private capital movements across
borders. In fact, Tobin distanced himself from the ''anti-globalisation
rebels'' who, he complained, had hijacked his name for wrong ends.
However, the wider support for Tobin-tax Mark II notwithstanding,
little progress was achieved. It was, not surprisingly, opposed by
finance. It was also opposed by countries which felt that imposing
such a tax, when others were not opting for it, would drive capital
out of their countries and/or undermine their existing role or potential
role as global financial centres. And once again the debate on the
need for and feasibility of such a tax petered out.
However, since financial crises do not disappear but only recur, often
with greater intensity, in contemporary capitalism, the idea was bound
to survive. We are therefore witnessing now the revival of Tobin-tax
Mark III in the wake of the global financial and economic crisis of
2008. In August 2009, when an effort was still underway to redirect
attention from stalling the recession to reforming finance, a person
of no less significance than Adair Turner, chairman of Britain's Financial
Services Authority and author of the much-discussed Turner Review
of the implications of the financial crisis, argued in an interview
published in Prospect magazine that the debate on bankers' bonuses
has become a "populist diversion" and that more drastic
measures may be needed to cut the financial sector down to size. One
such measure was a Tobin-type tax on financial profits. "If you
want to stop excessive pay in a swollen financial sector you have
to reduce the size of that sector or apply special taxes to its pre-remuneration
profit," he said.
Coming from the chief of the financial watchdog in the country that
is home to the City of London (the second most important global financial
market after New York), this was a significant statement. It showed
that at least some people responsible for the operations of the City
were not going to protect finance at all cost in order to retain the
competitiveness of the City as a global financial centre. In fact,
Turner reportedly held that the FSA should "be very, very wary
of seeing the competitiveness of London as a major aim", since
the City had become a destabilising influence in the British economy.
It was not surprising that Turner's statements generated a backlash.
According to the Financial Times (27 August 2009), ''A chief economist
at a big bank described the suggestion internally as ''a stupid idea'',
while an executive at one European bank said: ''Global taxes don't
happen. Unless next month's G20 meeting can suddenly pull something
out of the hat, this will be largely ignored.''
The London meeting did indeed ignore the proposal, even though there
were hints of support from France and elsewhere. But come November
and the Turner-Tobin proposal gained new momentum with Prime Minister
Gordon Brown weighing in for it. He, however, made it clear that Britain
would consider adopting the tax only if the initiative was global.
And, as expected, not long after Brown's speech, US Treasury Secretary
Tim Geithner made clear that the US was not willing to support a financial
transaction tax. Canada, Russia and others, besides the IMF and the
European Central Bank, have joined the group of dissenters, increasing
the probability that the proposal will be shelved once again.
In the circumstance, many argue that Brown's declaration of support
for a financial transactions tax move may just be his last effort
to gain populist mileage from the presidency of the G20 and shore
up his waning image at home. However, his actions have given a lease
of life to an idea that just will not go away. Turner's assessment
that the logic that ''more complete markets were good and more liquid
markets are definitionally good'' is no longer trusted, and that the
crisis ''requires a very major reconstruct of the global financial
regulatory system, [not] a minor adjustment,'' cannot be easily ignored.
Hence the proposal for a Tobin-type financial transactions tax is
likely to remain on the table.