The
ongoing financial and economic crisis has had at least one significant
impact on the world of ideas: it has brought back to the forefront
the recognition of the crucial role of government expenditure in stabilising
economies and averting or mitigating recessions. It is true that the
continued opposition of some leaders, such as Angela Merkel in Germany
or some Republicans in the US Congress, suggests that it may not be
true to argue that ''we are all Keynesians now''. Nevertheless, the
international acceptance of some of Keynes’ more important propositions
has not been so widespread for at least three decades. This in turn
has meant that many arguments in favour of public spending that were
jettisoned or simply disregarded until quite recently, are now back
in vogue. And so at one level, proponents of such spending have less
to prove.
One important Keynesian notion which has great
applicability in the current context is that of the liquidity trap,
in which banks are unwilling to lend to all but the most preferred
and ''safe'' borrowers, but such borrowers are in turn unwilling to
borrow because of prevailing uncertainties. The financial crisis spawned
a ''credit crunch'', not only in the US where the crisis first broke,
but also across the world, even in countries that at first had appeared
to be relatively insulated. A credit crunch is associated with fear
and market uncertainty, when expectations are bullish and private
agents (whether they are investors or consumers) are unwilling to
take risks. This means they tend to cut down on their own spending,
and prefer to save. This paradoxically has the opposite effect of
what is intended: since everyone spends less, economic activity slows
down and reductions in output and employment follow. So the depressed
expectations become self-fulfilling, and create a downward spiral
or at the least, an unemployment equilibrium.
In such situations, monetary policy typically has little effect in
reviving economies. Reductions in interest rate or easing borrowing
conditions for banks cannot be indulged in beyond a point (the interest
rate cannot go lower than zero, for example) and in any case do not
ensure that banks who in the phase of what Kindleberger called ''revulsion''
will actually start lending normally. So the clear requirement is
for fiscal policy, for the government to maintain an expansionary
fiscal stance that will pull the economy out of the downswing. Fiscal
deficits in such a context are not only acceptable but even necessary
and essential to ensure economic recovery.
However, fiscal deficits too can come about in various ways. One option
is to provide tax cuts in the hope that this will reduce prices and
thereby cause increased private spending. This is indeed the route
that several governments, including in India, have chosen at least
to some extent. But another insight of Keynes was that tax cuts too
will have less of an impact than direct spending because of the depressed
state of expectations. Japan in the 1990s faced a prolonged recession:
the government in continuously provided both tax cuts and lower interest
rates, but in a period of falling economic activity and very negative
expectations of the future, people simply saved the money instead
of increasing their own private spending. Similarly, tax cuts that
have been recently applied in several developed and developing countries
have had very limited effects in terms of actually increasing aggregate
demand.
Another way that fiscal deficits are likely to increase in the current
context is through the government having to provide large bailouts
to financial firms and other corporations facing threat of closure
or other very serious problems. These may be essential (or at least
may be seen to be essential) to save the system as a whole from collapse,
though there are always complex and nuanced judgements to be made
about which firm deserves how much bailout, and what the implications
would be if it is not bailed out. The implications are obvious for
the effects of crony capitalism and differential treatment of firms
- and there are other broader income distribution effects as well.
But Keynes and Kalecki, who both pointed out the criticality of fiscal
policy in capitalism, were essentially talking about direct public
expenditure, not resources provided indirectly as tax cuts or bailouts.
It is important to note that they were not concerned with the pattern
of expenditure, and whether it is ''productive'' or unproductive''.
In fact Keynes famously argued that even completely unproductive expenditure
''hiring men to dig holes and fill them up again'' would serve the
required purpose of reviving demand in a situation of excess capacity
and unutilised resources. And the operation of the multiplier - the
process by which each bout of spending generates additional spending
of those whose incomes increase in the first round - ensures that
this initial unproductive spending raises output and employment over
time.
But we now know that the pattern of spending does indeed make a difference,
especially in developing countries where resources are constrained
in the medium term even if not in the short run. Obviously, public
expenditure need not be completely wasteful: there are huge opportunities
and avenues for productive investment and expenditure because of the
huge development gaps that exist. But there is the further point that
the value of the multiplier itself may not be a given, but may depend
upon the pattern of expenditure. For example, public spending on employment
schemes, and on health and education, not only generates more direct
employment but also more indirect employment because those who are
newly employed by this are more likely to consume a higher proportion
of their incomes. Conversely, simply raising the pay of middle class
and professional workers whose requirement for essential consumption
forms a smaller part of their income, need not lead to much increase
in consumption but may simply translate into greater saving, leading
to a lower value of the multiplier.
What this means is that, even in a period when fiscal expansion is
seen as necessary for economic regeneration, the direction of such
public spending matters greatly. Fiscal policy that provides more
wage income directly to unskilled workers and in rural areas is likely
to be much more effective in increasing aggregate incomes than other
forms of public spending, because of the higher value of the multiplier
in such expenditure. And therefore, particularly in the current situation
of global economic crisis and national economic slowdown, expenditure
on the NREGS assumes very great significance.
The point that is being made here is that ''inclusive'' public spending,
such as in the NREGS, is not only desirable from a social or welfare
perspective - it also provides very direct economic benefits because
it is much more effective in dealing with the economic situations
of credit crunch and aggregate demand slowdown. Because wage employment
schemes tend to be self-targeting in terms of increasing the incomes
of those who are most likely to spend their income rather than save
it, they necessarily imply higher multiplier effects that make the
public expenditure more effective in reviving output and indirect
employment. Therefore the NREGS is about more than equity; it is also
a macroeconomic weapon against slump, and this is at least partly
so because it does generate more equity.