Subtle War at the WTO
Mar 7th 2024, C.P. Chandrasekhar

At the time of writing, the 13th ministerial meet of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is under way in Abu Dhabi. Among the many issues that are being discussed are two of concern for less developed countries generally and India in particular.

The Vacuity of the Free Trade Argument
Dec 25th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

Imagine a country that is exposed to relatively unrestricted trade. There are two obvious problems that it can face because of this trade policy: the first is a balance of payments problem because its exports are insufficient relative to its imports.

Pitfalls of Export-Led Growth
Dec 11th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

The wisdom of pursuing a strategy of export-led growth has been discussed among development economists for at least half a century, ever since the so-called East Asian ''miracle'' started to be contrasted with the comparatively sluggish growth experience of countries like India that were pursuing, in the World Bank's language, an ''inward looking'' development strategy.

Believing One's Own False Theories
Sep 11th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

Liberal bourgeois writers tend to explain the problems that arise under capitalism not by the immanent tendencies of the system but by the capriciousness of particular governments.

Global Food Prices in "the Rest of the World"
Aug 22nd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

When food prices in global trade rise, they go up across the world. But the opposite movement of falling trade prices does not necessarily lead to falls in low and middle income countries. We show how this plays out with wheat prices.

The Curious Turn in India's Exports
Jul 28th 2023, C.P. Chandrasekhar

At first look, the evidence is worrying. Goods exports from India in June dropped to an 8-month low of $33 billion having fallen sharply by 22 per cent year-on-year. Moreover, that decline was not a one-off event.

When can there be a Fall in the Rate of Profit?
Jul 24th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

Several major economists have put forward theories predicting a falling tendency of the rate of profit under capitalism; Marx had seen in this fact an awareness on their part of the essential transitoriness of the capitalist system.

The Changing Structure of Global Imbalances
Mar 21st 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The differences in performance between less developed economies have tended to blur the North-South divide in the global distribution of balance of payments surpluses and deficits. But for most, that divide remains a reality.

Fragilities in India’s Balance of Payments
Feb 7th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The official Economic Survey ignores real economy trends which need to be urgently addressed, as is the case with emerging balance of payments fragilities.

Storm Clouds over India’s Balance of Payments
Jan 9th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

India's current account deficit for the second quarter (July-September) of 2022-23 has reached a massive $36.4 billion which is 4.4 per cent of the gross domestic product, higher than at any time in the last nine years.

India's Foreign Trade during the Ukraine War
Dec 13th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Ukraine War and rising global prices of fuel have had major effects on the external trade of many developing countries. But how much of India's poor trade performance and growing trade deficit since January 2022 can be attributed to such factors?.

India's China-trade Challenge
Nov 29th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A spike in India's imports from China and a widening of the trade deficit it records with that country points to fundamental weaknesses in India's industrial development trajectory.

The OPEC's Decision to Cut Oil Output
Oct 17th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

What is called OPEC+, that is the 13 members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) together with 11 other petroleum exporting countries led by Russia, decided on October 5 to cut their oil production by 2 million barrels per day, starting from November.

The Forex Bonanza
Jul 27th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A spike in India's foreign exchange reserves is a surprising feature of the period since March 2020 when the economy has been reeling under the damaging effects of the pandemic. But that trend is no cause for celebration.

The Growing Perils of India’s open Capital Account
Apr 20th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

India's increasingly open capital account is facilitating large gross and net inflows of foreign capital into the country. But while this does not translate into increased real investment, it imposes a large foreign exchange cost on the economy.

The Challenge of LDC Debt
Feb 9th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar

A challenge set by the Covid-19-induced economic crisis that would be difficult to address is the external debt crisis engulfing developing countries. While the G-20 with its Debt Service Suspension Initiative appeared to recognise the problem, the evidence indicates that the international community is unwilling to do what is needed.

The Electronics Industry PLI Scheme: A missed opportunity?
Jan 22nd 2021, Smitha Francis and Murali Kallummal

India's recent policy push to promote domestic electronics manufacturing is pivoted on a belief in the ability of large foreign firms to support the development of an advanced parts and components ecosystem. India might end up being a digital colony if the structural weakness of the industry cannot be overcome.

India’s External Sector during the Pandemic
Dec 29th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Weakness in India’s external sector cannot be used as an excuse for the lack of increased fiscal spending by the Indian government.

Bilateral Swaps in China's Global Presence
Dec 15th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

China's use of yuan-denominated central bank swaps, while enhancing its influence, is a source of support for developing countries in an unequal international order.

RCEP and China: A deal that can make a difference
Dec 15th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

As a trade promoting arrangement the RCEP is no game changer, but it possibly serves China’s interests by giving China a freer access to a 'common market' of considerable size and significance, without the presence of India and the United States, which share the objective of wanting to counter China's rise.

A Misleading Signal from the Trade Front 
Sep 22nd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The emergence of a trade surplus in India's balance of payments over the first five months of 2020-21 does not signal what it would in normal times. A closer analysis of the trade data traces the surplus to the behaviour of an economy in recession.

Forex Reserves: No cause for celebration
Sep 2nd 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The high levels of reserves are the result of reduced merchandise trade deficit and overall trade surplus, which includes the benefits of the oil price decline. It indicates recession and output contraction accompanying the pre- and post-Covid crises and thus, the weakness of the economy.

WTO is Using COVID for its Expansionist Free Trade Agenda
Aug 14th 2020, Murali Kallummal and Smitha Francis

Under the garb of removing supply chain disruptions in essential medical goods, the WTO is trying to expand free trade in electronic medical equipments and facilitating the North's agenda of consolidating the market shares of their firms, despite knowing that it can disrupt the production capacities of developing countries like India.

Can the Economic Lever Nudge China?
Jul 17th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Using economic weapons to temper China's stand on the border question would not be easy for India. The presence of Chinese firms in a relatively inconsequential area such as mobile apps was an easy and convenient lever for it to use.

It is High Time to Tweak India's FDI Rules 
Jul 13th 2020. Smitha Francis

Continuing to welcome FDI without qualifications will further weaken the domestic capabilities and sovereignty of India. The government instead extend the new rule for FDI screening to all countries defined in terms of livelihood and data security.

FTAs and the Race to the Bottom
Jul 6th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The recently concluded EU-Vietnam FTA is likely to increase Vietnam's exports at the expense of other developing countries, triggering competitive policy shifts inimical to long term development. In India, it is likely to be exploited by a neoliberal government to push its agenda to sign similar agreements.

Our Dependency on China didn't Happen Overnight
Jul 3rd 2020, Biswajit Dhar and K S Chalapati Rao

The Indian industry has been hollowed out by rapid trade liberalization without the requisite preparation to face cheaper imports. Transition from dependence on China for critical products to self-sufficiency would require some fundamental policy changes.

End of the Free Trade Myth
Dec 4th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

As prospects of the collapse of the WTO Appellate Board draws near, "emerging markets" like India cannot take even the current level of "free" trade for granted. They must rethink the open-door policy, especially the free flow of finance.

The Argument about Competitiveness
Nov 18th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

Support for a free trade agreement which creates unemployment, or lower incomes for the peasantry, cannot be justified under any circumstance. Prabhat Patnaik argues that people were right demanding that the government should come out of the RCEP.

A Dangerous Agreement to Sign
Nov 4th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

Signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership would increase destitution and unemployment and also widen the current account deficit, worsening the coming recession.

RCEP and Make in India dreams 
Oct 31st 2019, Smitha Francis

In the absence of strategic policy support that help build up indigenous capabilities and create the incentives for localisation, extensive liberalization through RCEP will only worsen domestic production, lower export and FDI flows and compromise national security for India.

RCEP and India's ICT Import Dependence: What should be our priorities?
Oct 31st 2019, Smitha Francis and Murali Kallummal

As India's ICT import dependence on China grows, it must ensure that the RCEP architecture does not undermine the capital-intensive efforts of indigenous manufacturers in high technology industries.

External Debt in Asia: Growing pains 
Aug 13th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

External debt is emerging as a potential concern for many Asian developing countries, even for those whose aggregate external debt to GDP ratios do not appear to be large. This is because of the growing importance of private bond holders in such debt, even as capital flows to the region turn more volatile.

The Bogey of Currency Manipulation 
Jun 18th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Which emerging markets have seen significant depreciation of their exchange rates? And should “currency manipulation” be blamed for that?

Economic War with no End in Sight
Jun 14th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

In the U.S.-China tariff war, there is no economic gain to be derived by either side. But the U.S. is pushing ahead by bringing in the national security angle because the political stakes are too high.

Disruption in the World of Trade 
Jun 6th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

World trade is slowing. While the US triggered trade war with China is part of the explanation, the real driver is a loss of momentum in the world economy.

Warning Signs from External Trade 
May 21st 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh points out that India's rising gold imports are primarily responsible for its growing trade deficit; so far no action has been taken by the Modi government to prevent these unnecessary imports.

The Spectre of Higher Oil Prices 
May 7th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The decision of the US government under Trump to end the waivers from sanctions on imports of oil from Iran that were given to eight countries could trigger a spike in oil prices. That can have adverse implications for India's balance of payments stability and inflation trends.

China's Trade with other Asian Countries 
Apr 23rd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

China's trade with Asian developing countries is more significant than ever - but not always in ways that benefit them.

Remittances as Saviour 
Dec 18th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Remittances from non-resident Indian workers, especially in the Gulf, have helped to conceal the failure of liberalization to deliver the promised export boom.

The Tumbling Rupee
Nov 1st 2018, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta
Unless policy measures address the structural problems underlying India's current account imbalance, piecemeal steps like tariff hikes would fail to stall the tumbling rupee. There is an urgent need to bring down the import intensity of the growth process it, besides gradually moving away from high fossil fuel dependence over the longer term. It is high time to impose some curbs on volatile capital flows, which aids and abets bubble-building only to inflict currency meltdowns in future.
Can the RBI’s open Market Operations help the Rupee? 
Oct 10th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The rupee's slide raises the question of whether India's central bank should intervene by selling dollars to prop up the currency. But past experience of such efforts has yielded mixed results, so other measures may be necessary.
India's External Vulnerability 
Sep 26th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While the rise in oil prices explains the sudden deterioration of the current account balance in India's external payments, it also signals the vulnerability to inevitable shocks that is inherent in the changing structure of India's external trade relations.
The Fall of the Rupee
Sep 25th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Falling rupee requires immediate government action. Awaiting an equilibrium that never comes would not only keep squeezing the working people but would eventually make the government run to the IMF and other financial institutions in panic. Measures like raising interest rates, fiscal compression, and using foreign exchange reserves have their own fallouts. There have to be direct restrictions on inessential imports combined with some controls on capital outflows.
The Indian Economy in A Tailspin
Sep 24th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
A combination of direct import controls on inessential items, reduction of petro-product prices, measures for reducing the consumption of such products, and direct taxation, especially on wealth, is the obvious way of getting out of the tailspin in which the Indian economy is currently caught. There is no alternative to these measures if we are to avoid the fate of countries that eventually run to the IMF and get caught in the vice-like grip of "austerity".
RCEP Deal can be Disastrous for India
Sep 13th 2018, Biswajit Dhar
Our FTA experience and existing trade imbalance with RCEP nations inform us that such a trade pact will hurt our producers.
The Real Problem with Free Trade
Sep 11th 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Even if free trade is ultimately broadly beneficial, the fact remains that as trade has become freer, inequality has worsened. One major reason for this is that current global trade rules have enabled a few large firms to capture an ever-larger share of value-added, at a massive cost to economies, workers, and the environment.
India's Electronics Manufacturing Sector: Getting the Diagnosis Right
Sep 7th 2018, Smitha Francis
The Indian electronics industry's high dependence on imports is a direct outcome of the trade and investment liberalisation that was carried out by successive governments without putting in place the necessary industrial policy support for maintaining and improving domestic linkages and indigenous capabilities.
The State of the Economy
Jul 23rd 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The Indian Economy is facing remarkable combination of stagnation, inflation and a burgeoning trade deficit which has been erroneously attributed to the rise in oil prices alone.
A Legacy of Vulnerability
Jul 12th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Outstanding foreign bank claims that accumulated during the post-crisis period of easy and cheap credit are a source of vulnerability in the new environment.
Has Donald Trump Already Changed US Trade?
Jun 19th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Donald Trump is threatening to dismantle the current world trading system, but in his first year US trading patterns show strong continuity with the previous administration.
The Gathering Storm Clouds
May 28th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The Indian Economy has all along been critically dependent upon the inflow of speculative finance to sustain its balance of payment. It now faces threatening prospects of a spiral as international crude oil prices and U.S. interest rates, that kept its import bill restricted, are on the rise.
The Return of the Oil Threat
May 11th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, stick to their reduced outputs and as Trump threatens to isolate Iran with sanctions once again, the spectre of high oil prices and the accompanying inflation seem very real.
The Collapse in Developing Country Exports
Apr 25th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The period since 2010 has seen a collapse in developing country exports, most of all in South-South trade. Developing countries need to factor this into their future strategies.
Trump's Trade War
Apr 24th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The trade sanctions on China and other protectionist measures announced by the Trump administration will not only not serve the cause of the U.S.' trade deficit but could also spark off a trade war, resulting in an overall shrinkage of world trade.
Trump's Protectionism
Mar 26th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Trumps' announcement of tariff hike tantamounts to a beggar-thy-neighbour policy that would inevitably attract retaliation. But these current protectionist measures on capital-in-production do not in any way restrict capital-as-finance. They are just desperate and counter-productive attempts at coping with a crisis, which is itself an outcome of the process of globalization of finance.
The Aging of a Growth Engine
Feb 14th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
With the dollar value of exports declining, India’s software sector faces a historical crisis which may worsen, given the protectionist trends in the US and other uncertainties.
How China is managing capital flows – and why
Nov 24th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
China is seeking a more influential role in the global economy, and it hopes to achieve this through greater use of its currency by others.
The Golden "Diwali Gift"
Oct 26th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
In the light of rescinding, at the behest of the clout of jewellery traders, the notification requiring KYC details for purchase of gold, the government will find it difficult to maintain its 'pro-poor' and 'anti-corruption' image as its moves seem to be, more for optics and hype than substantive change.
Mixed Signals from the External Sector
Sep 28th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Large capital inflows have boosted foreign exchange reserves and resulted in the rupee strengthening. Although exports have not done badly, the widening trade deficit owing to a rise in the import bill can worsen the current account position and create a vicious circle.
One Belt, One Road, One Grand Design?
Jun 10th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
As Trump adopts protectionist measures, President Xi Jingpings’ project "One Belt One Road" is an overwhelmingly ambitious plan to restore faith in globalization. Aiming to perfectly connect 60 countries to China, it is expected to face huge political and financial difficulties. Although it points to a new kind of Chinese imperialism, such a world of competitive superpowers might open new opportunities for the developing nations.
China's Capital Flight Syndrome
Jan 30th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The sudden collapse in reserves due to an outflow of capital in a country that was considered the favoured destination for FDI points towards the fact that China is now paying the price for the capital account liberalisation measures adopted with its entry into the WTO.
Can Developing Asia Hold its Ground?
Dec 6th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight from Asia points to investor concerns about both political processes in the big Asian developing economies and medium-term economic prospects.
India's Export Collapse
Nov 30th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A peculiar combination of factors, besides the global recession, explains India's poor export performance in recent times.
Revised Version of India's New Model Bilateral Investment Treaty
Jul 12th 2016, Andrew Cornford
The revised version of India's model bilateral investment treaty has introduced greater flexibility and has included some extensions of rules contained in the initial 2015 draft.
India's Collapsing Exports
May 26th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The downturn in India's export performance, that is much worse than other comparable countries, is a reflection of deeper structural weaknesses in the composition of its exports.
Capital Bleeds from Emerging Asia
Feb 2nd 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight, in 2015, from the emerging markets, especially those in Asia, was much worse than has been previously estimated. This augurs ill for the coming year.
Growth, Imports and Inequality: Explaining the persistently high trade deficit in India
Dec 31 st 2015, Zico Dasgupta and Subhanil Chowdhury
This paper provides an explanation of the asymmetric relationship between the GDP growth rate and the trade deficit and looks at the mechanism through which the trade deficit in India has increased.
Imperialism's New Trade-Negotiating Strategy
Dec 28th 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The Nairobi ministerial meet marks a shift in the strategy of imperialism from multilateral trade agreements to regional trade agreements and from seeking grand agreements to negotiating only specific issues.
Financial Services under WTO: Disciplining governments and freeing
business
Dec 22nd 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Services trade negotiations at the World Trade Organization may fail at the Doha Round, only because there has been no progress in agriculture and industrial goods trade.
Dispute Settlement in International Investment Agreements and the Rules of an Indian Model Bilateral Investment Treaty
Sep 22nd 2015, Andrew Cornford
This article reviews the Indian model bilateral investment treaty and the major provisions of international investment treaties, often with special attention to their historical development.
India's Foreign Exchange Hoard
Jun 25th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Rising foreign exchange reserves have been taken as an indicator of strength of India’s external sector, but an examination of how these reserves have accumulated calls for caution.
Calling a Halt to the Pseudo "Trade Deals"
Jun 24th 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The TPP or the TTIP deal is not really about trade; they both are about strengthening the rules that favour capital over not just workers but over citizens in general.
The Declining World Foreign Exchange Reserves
Jun 12th 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The author in this article explains the reason behind the sudden decline in the world foreign exchange reserves.
Skating on Thin Ice
Jun 1st 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
Indian economy, under the first year of Modi's rule, has experienced massive attack on the welfare programmes, sluggish growth of exports and an increase in the trade deficit.
No Support for the Rupee
May 12th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Recently released merchandise trade figures for the first half of 2014-15, suggest that trade fundamentals offer no support to the rupee under strain because of an FII retreat.
Software Services: Some cause for comfort
Mar 11th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The success of India's software services export industry is built on the ability to maintain its leading position among the top players, which is indeed some cause for comfort.
Banking on FDI
Feb 9th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Prof. Bhagwati has Got it Wrong
Jan 12th 2015, Rohit
Jagadish Bhagwati's recent pitch for make-in-India is flawed as it ignores domestic demand and other pitfalls of an export-oriented growth strategy.
The Gathering Clouds of Recession
Nov 24th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The world capitalist economy's slide into a new downturn is likely to be a harbinger of major economic and political changes within the structure of world capitalism.
India Concludes Bilateral Agreement with US, Agrees to an Indefinite ‘Peace Clause’
Nov 17th 2014, Biswajit Dhar
By making a bilateral agreement with the US, India is able to avert any challenge to its food security programme for now, but the programme will be under WTO surveillance.
The Difficult Art of Economic Diversification
Nov 11th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Indonesia provides a stark example of an economy that diversified its pattern of trade and domestic production, only to relapse back into a dependence on primary exports.
Exploiting the Oil Price Crash
Oct 30th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The government has decided to exploit the recent sharp decline in oil prices to push deregulation. But this may not help growth nor prove wise in the medium term.
IPR Policy Must Drive Innovation
Oct 8th 2014, Biswajit Dhar
Making a national IPR policy entails a balance between public policy objectives and the private rights of creators; otherwise it may serve only narrow corporate interests.
India Faces Criticism for Blocking Global Trade Deal, But is it Justified?
Sep 9th 2014, Jayati Ghosh
Contrary to wider perception, the bigger risk to the multilateral trading system comes from the developed world failing to listen to the concerns of developing countries.
Mitigating FTA Challenges
Sep 2nd 2014, Biswajit Dhar
India has not been able to sufficiently leverage the FTA agreements to increase its presence as its export share to FTA/CEPA countries has declined.
Oil: Hope of respite?
Aug 22nd 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Despite a downward trend in global oil prices, in the long run India may have to find alternative routes to finance the oil import bill as the trend may be short-lived.
Incentivising Risk-taking Abroad
Jul 28th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Tax concession provided on dividends received by Indian firms from their foreign subsidiaries increases the foreign exchange risk exposure of the country.
The Moves towards 'De-Dollarization'
Jun 18th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The de-Dollarisation attempts by Russia via the recent trade deals with China and Iran can have major consequences, but may be difficult to sustain due to internal pressures.
India's External Resiliences
Jun 17 th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The fall in the current account deficit of India may seem heartening but this is possibly because of a temporary respite in the areas where India’s vulnerability resides
Workers Dying in Qatar
Feb 24th 2014, Jayati Ghosh
Recognising the rights of migrant workers in Qatar is obviously crucial; but it is equally important to recognise the rights of workers in India.
Cheap Labour and Competitiveness
Feb 7th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The author analyses the merits of the argument of China having reached the Lewis turning point, which is predicted to make way for new suppliers in the world market.
India's Proposed FTAs with EFTA and the EU: Complicating a myopic policy regime
Jan 31st 2014, Smitha Francis
India should put on hold the signing of further bilateral and regional trade agreements and strive for a trade policy compatible with a strategic industrial policy.
The Geography of Global Manufacturing
Jan 27th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The US's cries on the looming threat from China seem to be just propaganda to pre-empt any challenge to existing imperial power.
Macroeconomic Vulnerability and the Rupee's Decline
Oct 28th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The measures adopted by the government to stem the rupee depreciation rather than being a success may well lead India into a crisis.
Is there a Flight of Capital from India?
Oct 10th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Capital flight from India aggravated the overall position of rupee, but the country's balance of payments position is the fundamental weakness which needs to be addressed.
How Should We Deal with the Current Account Deficit?
Sep 17th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Although the Rupee has stabilised for the moment, the resolution of India's external crisis is far from sight as the basic source of the problem still remains unaddressed.
Addressing India's External Vulnerability
Sep 12th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Stringent quantitative restrictions on the volume of permitted gold imports are a must for addressing the economic difficulties that India faces now.
The Discreet Charms of Controlling Imports
Sep 4th 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Some protection from imports together with current account balancing is clearly what is necessary now to deal with India's balance of payment crisis.
Perils of Borrowed Prosperity
Aug 22nd 2013, Prasenjit Bose
There are structural aspects underlying India's external deficit and financing this by attracting more capital inflows will imply growing external indebtedness for the economy.
Foreign Crutches
Jul 29th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The government's expectation of earning a huge foreign exchange for India, based on which the liberalisation of foreign investment rules was justified, has been belied.
The Forgotten Software Boom
Jul 17th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The slowdown of ITeS export earnings is bad news for India at a time when widening current account deficit is leading to a weakening rupee.
Fragile Foundations: Foreign capital and growth after liberalisation
May 14th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The shift from debt-financed public expenditure to debt-financed private expenditure-led growth in India has resulted in increased dependence on foreign capital and vulnerability.
Capital Flows and External Vulnerability: Examining the recent trends in India
Apr 29th 2013, Prasenjit Bose
The measures to attract additional debt inflows into the Indian economy to finance its widening current account deficit will only enhance its external vulnerability.
The Political Economy of Indian Food Exports
Apr 2nd 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The article discusses the political economy configurations that permit rising grain exports from India, even as domestic food prices spiral out of the reach of ordinary people.
India's Rich are the Problem
Mar 18th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Addressing India's worsening current account deficit requires reining in the import bill, which in turn requires curbing elite consumption.
Is Global Finance Finally Shrinking?
Mar 20th 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Even as the value of global financial assets has fallen sharply since 2007, it may be essential to shrink it further to make the financial system fulfil its basic tasks.
Gems, Jewels and Gold
Mar 19th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Accrual of gold and jewellery by a section of Indians that led to a surge in gold imports has left the nation with unjustifiable negative fiscal and foreign exchange balance.
Disquieting Imbalance
Feb 19th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A spate of evidence suggests that there is much that is troubling on India's balance of payments front. But there seems to be no concerted action to address the problem.
India's Gold Rush
Jan 23rd 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
India's obsession with gold has led to sharp rise in the foreign exchange outgo on account of gold imports. So, a return to gold control of a workable kind is very important.
Promise Belied
Oct 20th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There is little evidence from the RBI's latest data to suggest that liberalisation's promise of positive net foreign exchange earnings for the country has borne fruit.
India, China and the World
Oct 19th 2012, Prabhat Patnaik
Those who defend neo-liberal policies in India by citing China's export and growth successes as if India can simply replicate China's experience, are completely wrong.
Ill Winds from Europe
Aug 8th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The crisis intensifies in Europe and threatens to trigger a second global downturn in five years. This time, Asian countries, which weathered the last crisis well, seem less resilient. In fact, the evidence points to many routes to the spread of contagion to Asia.
The Growth Model has Come Undone
Jul 12th 2012, Mritiunjoy Mohanty
The government's argument that India's economic slowdown is the result of the global situation and related uncertainty is only partly true. The deeper reason is the unravelling of the underlying growth model - partly due to the greatly increased import dependence of the manufacturing sector and partly because the investment subsidy that Indian companies enjoyed due to the under-pricing of assets is no longer feasible.
Banking on Debt
Jul 10th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The latest figures on India's external account reveal that the problem of declining foreign exchange reserves is the result principally of the widening of the current account deficit, which was far too large to be covered by an increase in capital inflows. While the government may do well to address the vulnerability caused by a rising import bill, especially on account of gold imports, it has been adding to external vulnerability by encouraging further inflows of speculative debt capital.
Markets and the Role of Law?
Jul 2nd 2012, Bikku Kuruvila
While law is presented within the dominant policy discourse as a source of transaction costs and bureaucracy, markets simply could not exist without the rigorous enforcement of rules and contracts that allow the much-celebrated moments of ''free exchange'' to proceed with any certainty. In this light, it is very important to look at the political compromises, policy resolutions and distributional consequences created by market-oriented state intervention. To this view, India in 2012 is already largely integrated into the global economy with the growth, volatility and inequality that such integration entails.
India's Growth Story Ends
Jun 6th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Even when confronted with slowing growth, the Indian government is adopting austerity measures that trap the country in a recession, because of the accumulated presence of foreign finance in the country. The latter not only increases economic instability, but also induces an element of "policy paralysis". Capital controls are a must to give policy manoeuvrability to the government.
The Commerce Ministry's Secret
Apr 28th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The enormous export growth of India could possibly be an exaggeration considering the waning global demand. The unprecedented resilience and recovery of Indian exports during the crisis period cannot be accounted for by macroeconomic factors, technical glitches or speculation and is one of the best kept secrets of the Commerce ministry.
Can Asia Decouple?
Feb 22nd 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As the global economic situation worsens, there are renewed concerns about the fate of developing countries. The authors consider recent trends in global GDP growth, investment and trade, and argue that the expectations of Asia being able to blithely withstand the latest round of economic crisis are not just over-optimistic but probably wrong.
Behind the Fear of Debt
Feb 9th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Fears are being expressed in official policy circles that the country's dependence on foreign debt as opposed to foreign investment to finance the external deficit is increasing, leading to specific policy responses. Recently the government has announced a policy allowing direct access of a new group of foreign investors into India's equity markets. Although this measure is defended on the grounds that it would help reduce dependence on debt, its validity is indeed questionable.
Thirst for Foreign Capital
Jan27th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Concerned about the fall in FII investments and the financing of the growing current account deficit, the government has allowed a new group of foreign investors to invest directly in India's equity markets. To the extent that the measure is successful, it would mark a transition towards allowing greater presence of speculative players in the Indian markets.
India's External Sector
Jan11th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Even before global currents caused relatively rapid outflows of mobile finance capital from India, the Indian economy was vulnerable on the external front. The recent pattern of growth that has been reliant on capital inflows to generate domestic credit-driven bubbles, rather than trade surpluses is not sustainable and puts the economy at greater risk.
The Lurking Debt Problem
Dec 19th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Rising interest rates in the domestic market have been encouraging large firms in the Indian corporate sector to resort to foreign borrowing to finance domestic expenditures. In particular, there has been significant rise in the shares of commercial borrowings and short-term debt in total external debt. This tendency is increasing external vulnerability.

The Challenge of Ensuring Full Employment in the Twenty-first Century

Oct 12th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
The recent economic growth process in India and other parts of the developing world exhibits the inability of even high rates of output growth to generate sufficient opportunities for 'decent work' to meet the needs of the growing labour force. Therefore, there is a clear case for a shift towards wage-led and domestic demand-led growth, particularly in the economies that are large enough to sustain this shift.
International Banks in Emerging Markets
Jun 2nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The presence and growth of foreign banks in emerging markets pose important challenges, both for these countries and the international financial system. Yet the debate on banking re-regulation before and after the crisis focuses largely on the experience of the developed countries, ignoring the implications of developments in the emerging economies.
The Japan-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
Feb 22nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
There has been much media celebration about the recent signing of the Japan-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. This article examines some of the features of the agreement and considers their implications for domestic economic strategies and processes in India.
Surviving Uncertain Times
Dec 1st 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
It is now evident that the world economy is in for another spate of major problems, with recession and stagnation likely to affect the largest economies and altering prospects for growth elsewhere. This article examines recent patterns of the Indian economy’s external engagement, in order to gauge how well equipped it is to face this uncertain future.
National FDI Concepts: Implications for investment negotiations
Jun 4th 2010, Smitha Francis

Free trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties make privileges for and treatment of foreign direct investors legally binding. Thus, apart from the concerns of being able to capture the ''real'' financial and economic contribution of foreign direct investment inflows, FDI definitions are also about protecting the ''rights'' of the so-defined investors in the host country. Keeping this in mind, the article analyses India's current FDI policy and warns that if we define FDI within our national regulatory framework too broadly to allow instruments and flexibility that were earlier resisted, we would have already lost most of the leverage in investment negotiations at the regional and multilateral levels.

The Spectre of Public Debt
Apr 21st 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The sovereign debt crisis of Greece has led to appeals for a reduction in the size of public debt in countries worldwide. Given that increasing taxes and reducing expenditures may not be considered viable options, there would soon be strident calls for disinvestment and privatisation aimed at generating the resources needed for this.
FDI and the Balance of Payments in the 2000s
Mar 10th 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The most quoted indicator of the success of economic reform is the noticeable rise in the inflow of foreign direct investment during the last decade and a half. However, the available Indian evidence on the performance of foreign direct investment companies suggests that their balance of payments consequences are adverse.
The WTO as Barrier to Financial Regulation
Feb 8th 2010, Jayati Ghosh
Many of the financial regulatory proposals now being considered by developed countries might not be feasible given the legally binding commitments these countries have made under GATS with respect to financial services liberalisation. Such WTO rules may therefore get ignored or GATS may require to be renegotiated, for the necessary financial sector reforms to take place.
Archives >>
 
 

Site optimised for 800 x 600 and above for Internet Explorer 5 and above
© MACROSCAN 2024