The Golden "Diwali Gift"
Oct 26th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
In the light of rescinding, at the behest of the clout of jewellery traders, the notification requiring KYC details for purchase of gold, the government will find it difficult to maintain its 'pro-poor' and 'anti-corruption' image as its moves seem to be, more for optics and hype than substantive change.
Mixed Signals from the External Sector
Sep 28th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Large capital inflows have boosted foreign exchange reserves and resulted in the rupee strengthening. Although exports have not done badly, the widening trade deficit owing to a rise in the import bill can worsen the current account position and create a vicious circle.
One Belt, One Road, One Grand Design?
Jun 10th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
As Trump adopts protectionist measures, President Xi Jingpings’ project "One Belt One Road" is an overwhelmingly ambitious plan to restore faith in globalization. Aiming to perfectly connect 60 countries to China, it is expected to face huge political and financial difficulties. Although it points to a new kind of Chinese imperialism, such a world of competitive superpowers might open new opportunities for the developing nations.
China's Capital Flight Syndrome
Jan 30th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The sudden collapse in reserves due to an outflow of capital in a country that was considered the favoured destination for FDI points towards the fact that China is now paying the price for the capital account liberalisation measures adopted with its entry into the WTO.
Can Developing Asia Hold its Ground?
Dec 6th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight from Asia points to investor concerns about both political processes in the big Asian developing economies and medium-term economic prospects.
India's Export Collapse
Nov 30th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A peculiar combination of factors, besides the global recession, explains India's poor export performance in recent times.
Revised Version of India's New Model Bilateral Investment Treaty
Jul 12th 2016, Andrew Cornford
The revised version of India's model bilateral investment treaty has introduced greater flexibility and has included some extensions of rules contained in the initial 2015 draft.
India's Collapsing Exports
May 26th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The downturn in India's export performance, that is much worse than other comparable countries, is a reflection of deeper structural weaknesses in the composition of its exports.
Capital Bleeds from Emerging Asia
Feb 2nd 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight, in 2015, from the emerging markets, especially those in Asia, was much worse than has been previously estimated. This augurs ill for the coming year.
Growth, Imports and Inequality: Explaining the persistently high trade deficit in India
Dec 31 st 2015, Zico Dasgupta and Subhanil Chowdhury
This paper provides an explanation of the asymmetric relationship between the GDP growth rate and the trade deficit and looks at the mechanism through which the trade deficit in India has increased.
Imperialism's New Trade-Negotiating Strategy
Dec 28th 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The Nairobi ministerial meet marks a shift in the strategy of imperialism from multilateral trade agreements to regional trade agreements and from seeking grand agreements to negotiating only specific issues.
Financial Services under WTO: Disciplining governments and freeing
business
Dec 22nd 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Services trade negotiations at the World Trade Organization may fail at the Doha Round, only because there has been no progress in agriculture and industrial goods trade.
Dispute Settlement in International Investment Agreements and the Rules of an Indian Model Bilateral Investment Treaty
Sep 22nd 2015, Andrew Cornford
This article reviews the Indian model bilateral investment treaty and the major provisions of international investment treaties, often with special attention to their historical development.
India's Foreign Exchange Hoard
Jun 25th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Rising foreign exchange reserves have been taken as an indicator of strength of India’s external sector, but an examination of how these reserves have accumulated calls for caution.
Calling a Halt to the Pseudo "Trade Deals"
Jun 24th 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The TPP or the TTIP deal is not really about trade; they both are about strengthening the rules that favour capital over not just workers but over citizens in general.
The Declining World Foreign Exchange Reserves
Jun 12th 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The author in this article explains the reason behind the sudden decline in the world foreign exchange reserves.
Skating on Thin Ice
Jun 1st 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
Indian economy, under the first year of Modi's rule, has experienced massive attack on the welfare programmes, sluggish growth of exports and an increase in the trade deficit.
No Support for the Rupee
May 12th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Recently released merchandise trade figures for the first half of 2014-15, suggest that trade fundamentals offer no support to the rupee under strain because of an FII retreat.
Software Services: Some cause for comfort
Mar 11th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The success of India's software services export industry is built on the ability to maintain its leading position among the top players, which is indeed some cause for comfort.
Banking on FDI
Feb 9th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Prof. Bhagwati has Got it Wrong
Jan 12th 2015, Rohit
Jagadish Bhagwati's recent pitch for make-in-India is flawed as it ignores domestic demand and other pitfalls of an export-oriented growth strategy.
The Gathering Clouds of Recession
Nov 24th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The world capitalist economy's slide into a new downturn is likely to be a harbinger of major economic and political changes within the structure of world capitalism.
India Concludes Bilateral Agreement with US, Agrees to an Indefinite ‘Peace Clause’
Nov 17th 2014, Biswajit Dhar
By making a bilateral agreement with the US, India is able to avert any challenge to its food security programme for now, but the programme will be under WTO surveillance.
The Difficult Art of Economic Diversification
Nov 11th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Indonesia provides a stark example of an economy that diversified its pattern of trade and domestic production, only to relapse back into a dependence on primary exports.
Exploiting the Oil Price Crash
Oct 30th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The government has decided to exploit the recent sharp decline in oil prices to push deregulation. But this may not help growth nor prove wise in the medium term.
IPR Policy Must Drive Innovation
Oct 8th 2014, Biswajit Dhar
Making a national IPR policy entails a balance between public policy objectives and the private rights of creators; otherwise it may serve only narrow corporate interests.
India Faces Criticism for Blocking Global Trade Deal, But is it Justified?
Sep 9th 2014, Jayati Ghosh
Contrary to wider perception, the bigger risk to the multilateral trading system comes from the developed world failing to listen to the concerns of developing countries.
Mitigating FTA Challenges
Sep 2nd 2014, Biswajit Dhar
India has not been able to sufficiently leverage the FTA agreements to increase its presence as its export share to FTA/CEPA countries has declined.
Oil: Hope of respite?
Aug 22nd 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Despite a downward trend in global oil prices, in the long run India may have to find alternative routes to finance the oil import bill as the trend may be short-lived.
Incentivising Risk-taking Abroad
Jul 28th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Tax concession provided on dividends received by Indian firms from their foreign subsidiaries increases the foreign exchange risk exposure of the country.
The Moves towards 'De-Dollarization'
Jun 18th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The de-Dollarisation attempts by Russia via the recent trade deals with China and Iran can have major consequences, but may be difficult to sustain due to internal pressures.
India's External Resiliences
Jun 17 th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The fall in the current account deficit of India may seem heartening but this is possibly because of a temporary respite in the areas where India’s vulnerability resides
Workers Dying in Qatar
Feb 24th 2014, Jayati Ghosh
Recognising the rights of migrant workers in Qatar is obviously crucial; but it is equally important to recognise the rights of workers in India.
Cheap Labour and Competitiveness
Feb 7th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The author analyses the merits of the argument of China having reached the Lewis turning point, which is predicted to make way for new suppliers in the world market.
India's Proposed FTAs with EFTA and the EU: Complicating a myopic policy regime
Jan 31st 2014, Smitha Francis
India should put on hold the signing of further bilateral and regional trade agreements and strive for a trade policy compatible with a strategic industrial policy.
The Geography of Global Manufacturing
Jan 27th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The US's cries on the looming threat from China seem to be just propaganda to pre-empt any challenge to existing imperial power.
Macroeconomic Vulnerability and the Rupee's Decline
Oct 28th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The measures adopted by the government to stem the rupee depreciation rather than being a success may well lead India into a crisis.
Is there a Flight of Capital from India?
Oct 10th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Capital flight from India aggravated the overall position of rupee, but the country's balance of payments position is the fundamental weakness which needs to be addressed.
How Should We Deal with the Current Account Deficit?
Sep 17th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Although the Rupee has stabilised for the moment, the resolution of India's external crisis is far from sight as the basic source of the problem still remains unaddressed.
Addressing India's External Vulnerability
Sep 12th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Stringent quantitative restrictions on the volume of permitted gold imports are a must for addressing the economic difficulties that India faces now.
The Discreet Charms of Controlling Imports
Sep 4th 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Some protection from imports together with current account balancing is clearly what is necessary now to deal with India's balance of payment crisis.
Perils of Borrowed Prosperity
Aug 22nd 2013, Prasenjit Bose
There are structural aspects underlying India's external deficit and financing this by attracting more capital inflows will imply growing external indebtedness for the economy.
Foreign Crutches
Jul 29th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The government's expectation of earning a huge foreign exchange for India, based on which the liberalisation of foreign investment rules was justified, has been belied.
The Forgotten Software Boom
Jul 17th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The slowdown of ITeS export earnings is bad news for India at a time when widening current account deficit is leading to a weakening rupee.
Fragile Foundations: Foreign capital and growth after liberalisation
May 14th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The shift from debt-financed public expenditure to debt-financed private expenditure-led growth in India has resulted in increased dependence on foreign capital and vulnerability.
Capital Flows and External Vulnerability: Examining the recent trends in India
Apr 29th 2013, Prasenjit Bose
The measures to attract additional debt inflows into the Indian economy to finance its widening current account deficit will only enhance its external vulnerability.
The Political Economy of Indian Food Exports
Apr 2nd 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The article discusses the political economy configurations that permit rising grain exports from India, even as domestic food prices spiral out of the reach of ordinary people.
India's Rich are the Problem
Mar 18th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Addressing India's worsening current account deficit requires reining in the import bill, which in turn requires curbing elite consumption.
Is Global Finance Finally Shrinking?
Mar 20th 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Even as the value of global financial assets has fallen sharply since 2007, it may be essential to shrink it further to make the financial system fulfil its basic tasks.
Gems, Jewels and Gold
Mar 19th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Accrual of gold and jewellery by a section of Indians that led to a surge in gold imports has left the nation with unjustifiable negative fiscal and foreign exchange balance.
Disquieting Imbalance
Feb 19th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A spate of evidence suggests that there is much that is troubling on India's balance of payments front. But there seems to be no concerted action to address the problem.
India's Gold Rush
Jan 23rd 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
India's obsession with gold has led to sharp rise in the foreign exchange outgo on account of gold imports. So, a return to gold control of a workable kind is very important.
Promise Belied
Oct 20th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There is little evidence from the RBI's latest data to suggest that liberalisation's promise of positive net foreign exchange earnings for the country has borne fruit.
India, China and the World
Oct 19th 2012, Prabhat Patnaik
Those who defend neo-liberal policies in India by citing China's export and growth successes as if India can simply replicate China's experience, are completely wrong.
Ill Winds from Europe
Aug 8th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The crisis intensifies in Europe and threatens to trigger a second global downturn in five years. This time, Asian countries, which weathered the last crisis well, seem less resilient. In fact, the evidence points to many routes to the spread of contagion to Asia.
The Growth Model has Come Undone
Jul 12th 2012, Mritiunjoy Mohanty
The government's argument that India's economic slowdown is the result of the global situation and related uncertainty is only partly true. The deeper reason is the unravelling of the underlying growth model - partly due to the greatly increased import dependence of the manufacturing sector and partly because the investment subsidy that Indian companies enjoyed due to the under-pricing of assets is no longer feasible.
Banking on Debt
Jul 10th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The latest figures on India's external account reveal that the problem of declining foreign exchange reserves is the result principally of the widening of the current account deficit, which was far too large to be covered by an increase in capital inflows. While the government may do well to address the vulnerability caused by a rising import bill, especially on account of gold imports, it has been adding to external vulnerability by encouraging further inflows of speculative debt capital.
Markets and the Role of Law?
Jul 2nd 2012, Bikku Kuruvila
While law is presented within the dominant policy discourse as a source of transaction costs and bureaucracy, markets simply could not exist without the rigorous enforcement of rules and contracts that allow the much-celebrated moments of ''free exchange'' to proceed with any certainty. In this light, it is very important to look at the political compromises, policy resolutions and distributional consequences created by market-oriented state intervention. To this view, India in 2012 is already largely integrated into the global economy with the growth, volatility and inequality that such integration entails.
India's Growth Story Ends
Jun 6th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Even when confronted with slowing growth, the Indian government is adopting austerity measures that trap the country in a recession, because of the accumulated presence of foreign finance in the country. The latter not only increases economic instability, but also induces an element of "policy paralysis". Capital controls are a must to give policy manoeuvrability to the government.
The Commerce Ministry's Secret
Apr 28th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The enormous export growth of India could possibly be an exaggeration considering the waning global demand. The unprecedented resilience and recovery of Indian exports during the crisis period cannot be accounted for by macroeconomic factors, technical glitches or speculation and is one of the best kept secrets of the Commerce ministry.
Can Asia Decouple?
Feb 22nd 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As the global economic situation worsens, there are renewed concerns about the fate of developing countries. The authors consider recent trends in global GDP growth, investment and trade, and argue that the expectations of Asia being able to blithely withstand the latest round of economic crisis are not just over-optimistic but probably wrong.
Behind the Fear of Debt
Feb 9th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Fears are being expressed in official policy circles that the country's dependence on foreign debt as opposed to foreign investment to finance the external deficit is increasing, leading to specific policy responses. Recently the government has announced a policy allowing direct access of a new group of foreign investors into India's equity markets. Although this measure is defended on the grounds that it would help reduce dependence on debt, its validity is indeed questionable.
Thirst for Foreign Capital
Jan27th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Concerned about the fall in FII investments and the financing of the growing current account deficit, the government has allowed a new group of foreign investors to invest directly in India's equity markets. To the extent that the measure is successful, it would mark a transition towards allowing greater presence of speculative players in the Indian markets.
India's External Sector
Jan11th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Even before global currents caused relatively rapid outflows of mobile finance capital from India, the Indian economy was vulnerable on the external front. The recent pattern of growth that has been reliant on capital inflows to generate domestic credit-driven bubbles, rather than trade surpluses is not sustainable and puts the economy at greater risk.
The Lurking Debt Problem
Dec 19th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Rising interest rates in the domestic market have been encouraging large firms in the Indian corporate sector to resort to foreign borrowing to finance domestic expenditures. In particular, there has been significant rise in the shares of commercial borrowings and short-term debt in total external debt. This tendency is increasing external vulnerability.

The Challenge of Ensuring Full Employment in the Twenty-first Century

Oct 12th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
The recent economic growth process in India and other parts of the developing world exhibits the inability of even high rates of output growth to generate sufficient opportunities for 'decent work' to meet the needs of the growing labour force. Therefore, there is a clear case for a shift towards wage-led and domestic demand-led growth, particularly in the economies that are large enough to sustain this shift.
International Banks in Emerging Markets
Jun 2nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The presence and growth of foreign banks in emerging markets pose important challenges, both for these countries and the international financial system. Yet the debate on banking re-regulation before and after the crisis focuses largely on the experience of the developed countries, ignoring the implications of developments in the emerging economies.
The Japan-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
Feb 22nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
There has been much media celebration about the recent signing of the Japan-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. This article examines some of the features of the agreement and considers their implications for domestic economic strategies and processes in India.
Surviving Uncertain Times
Dec 1st 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
It is now evident that the world economy is in for another spate of major problems, with recession and stagnation likely to affect the largest economies and altering prospects for growth elsewhere. This article examines recent patterns of the Indian economy’s external engagement, in order to gauge how well equipped it is to face this uncertain future.
National FDI Concepts: Implications for investment negotiations
Jun 4th 2010, Smitha Francis

Free trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties make privileges for and treatment of foreign direct investors legally binding. Thus, apart from the concerns of being able to capture the ''real'' financial and economic contribution of foreign direct investment inflows, FDI definitions are also about protecting the ''rights'' of the so-defined investors in the host country. Keeping this in mind, the article analyses India's current FDI policy and warns that if we define FDI within our national regulatory framework too broadly to allow instruments and flexibility that were earlier resisted, we would have already lost most of the leverage in investment negotiations at the regional and multilateral levels.

The Spectre of Public Debt
Apr 21st 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The sovereign debt crisis of Greece has led to appeals for a reduction in the size of public debt in countries worldwide. Given that increasing taxes and reducing expenditures may not be considered viable options, there would soon be strident calls for disinvestment and privatisation aimed at generating the resources needed for this.
FDI and the Balance of Payments in the 2000s
Mar 10th 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The most quoted indicator of the success of economic reform is the noticeable rise in the inflow of foreign direct investment during the last decade and a half. However, the available Indian evidence on the performance of foreign direct investment companies suggests that their balance of payments consequences are adverse.
The WTO as Barrier to Financial Regulation
Feb 8th 2010, Jayati Ghosh
Many of the financial regulatory proposals now being considered by developed countries might not be feasible given the legally binding commitments these countries have made under GATS with respect to financial services liberalisation. Such WTO rules may therefore get ignored or GATS may require to be renegotiated, for the necessary financial sector reforms to take place.
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