Budget
2019-20: Will it help India's farmers? |
Feb
4th 2019, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
interim budget 2019-20 is unlikely to bring
relief to farmers and secure their approval
for the coming elections. The approach to
farmers in this Budget reaffirms the Modi
government's tendency to rely on optics
and jumlas rather than actual spending and
concrete policies. |
|
The
Boundaries of Welfare |
Feb
4th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Interim
budget indicates that the government's electoral
strategy is to win over the 'intermediate
classes' while ignoring the poor. |
|
On
the Proposal for A Universal Basic Income |
Feb
1st 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Income
support through 'universal basic income'
has to be in addition to the existing
welfare schemes and not replace these
schemes. The expansion of public delivery
of good quality basic services remains
essential.
|
|
The
Motivated Murder of India's Statistical System |
Jan
31st 2019, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Government's
suppression of all the relevant statistics
is harming citizens, economy and the government
itself.
|
|
Here's
what Modi's 2019 Budget can - but won't -
do about India's Jobs Crisis |
Jan
30th 2019, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Constraints
imposed by the FRBM Act on fiscal and
revenue deficit are just an excuse used
by the government to hide its unwillingness
to act on urgent and important public
issues like employment crisis. In reality,
government constantly cheats on the FRBM
Act, through increased "off-budget"
expenditures, misstatement of receipts,
and holding back payments that pushes
the debt onto other entities.
|
|
The
Mistaken Obsession with the Fiscal Deficit |
Jan
29th, 2019 , C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
central government regularly fudges fiscal
data, to pretend to meet the FRBM Act
targets. This messes up public companies,
but does it really matter for the macroeconomy?
|
|
A
Misleading Debate |
Jan
10th 2019, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
government's desire to use RBI’s reserve
is based on the erroneous theoretical
understanding. This faulty formulation
results from the need to avoid upsetting
global finance
|
|
Do
'Markets' talk sense? |
Dec
20th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Markets
never were nor can be “rational”, they
cannot be sensible enough to discipline
governments and central banks to do the
right thing. Rather, they have in recent
decades forced central banks to adopt
measures that fuel speculation, and are
therefore patently wrong.
|
|
A
Curious Divergence |
Nov
20th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
An
inadequately analysed but striking divergence
in the services sector's contribution to
GDP and employment growth is a pointer to
the weaknesses inherent in India's services-led
growth model. |
|
Who
Should Control India’s Central Bank? |
Nov
15th 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
standoff between India's government and
the Reserve Bank of India isn't problematic
because of the risk of infringing on central-bank
independence. It is problematic because,
rather than fighting to protect the public
interest, the government's goal is to revive
irresponsible bank lending, protect its
cronies, and win votes. |
|
The
Modi Government's Spat with the RBI |
Nov
12th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Modi government's spat with the RBI is rooted
in the structural characteristic of neo-liberalism.
This entire debate has arisen as a fall-out
of neo-liberalism, of the contradictions
that inevitably arise in a neo-liberal economy
between the compulsion on the part of the
government to please international finance
and its need to win elections. Expenditures
have to be stepped up for the latter, while
international finance disapproves of such
stepping up. |
|
The
Government-RBI Stand-off |
Nov
6th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
current discourse around government-RBI
relations suggests as if there are only
two choices, one where market determines
RBI policy and the other where government
determines RBI policy. However, the root
of the problem lies in the structure of
the neo-liberal regime itself, which allows
too few policy instruments to achieve a
number of objectives. |
|
India's
Wealthy Barely Pay Taxes |
Nov
6th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
India
has one of the most unequal wealth distributions
in the world. The annual Global Wealth Report
indicates that wealth inequality in India
is only slightly below Russia, which is
widely recognised to be the most unequal.
Data shows that the richest are paying a
falling share of the income taxes. The inability
to tax high net worth individuals – or to
collect corporation tax from profitable
companies as expected – in turn means that
the government has turned to relying more
and more on indirect taxation which is much
more regressive and puts the burden of raising
fiscal resources onto common people. |
|
India's
Central Bank and Finance Ministry Must Introspect
Before Rushing to Battle |
Nov
5th 2018, Sunanda Sen |
|
The
conflict represents the need for an honest
attempt to identify lapses in financial
governance and remedies that do not encroach
on each other's responsibilities as well
as rights. |
|
The
Tumbling Rupee |
Nov
1st 2018, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta |
|
Unless
policy measures address the structural problems
underlying India's current account imbalance,
piecemeal steps like tariff hikes would
fail to stall the tumbling rupee. There
is an urgent need to bring down the import
intensity of the growth process it, besides
gradually moving away from high fossil fuel
dependence over the longer term. It is high
time to impose some curbs on volatile capital
flows, which aids and abets bubble-building
only to inflict currency meltdowns in future. |
|
Is
"Formalisation" Possible? |
Oct
23rd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
clamour for 'formalising' non-agricultural
economic activity assumes that the unorganised
sector is an early and backward 'stage'
in the organisation of economic activity.
In practice the unorganised sector exists
because organised employment fails to grow. |
|
Ayushman
Bharat |
Oct
1st 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Modi government's claim of ushering in the
largest healthcare scheme in the world is
completely vacuous. The chosen method of
enlarging healthcare access to the poor
is wrong both because of the route chosen
(the insurance route which benefits insurance
companies more than it benefits the patients)
as well as because of the ridiculously paltry
financial provision. |
|
India's
External Vulnerability |
Sep
26th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
the rise in oil prices explains the sudden
deterioration of the current account balance
in India's external payments, it also signals
the vulnerability to inevitable shocks that
is inherent in the changing structure of
India's external trade relations. |
|
Whither
Indian Economy? |
Sep
24th 2018, Sunanda Sen |
|
While
there are ongoing discussions on rupee depreciation
amidst an atmosphere of apprehension about
the economy and polity of the country, official
sources have continued to deny any possible
threat to the economy. The defensive position
advanced from the official quarters do not,
however, stand scrutiny if one recognises
the fact that none of those indicators of
a robust economy will be sustainable in
the face of slippages running through the
economy. |
|
The
Larger Crisis that NPAs Signal |
Sep
17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Desperate
attempts to prevent liquidation of power
sector assets in companies that are defaulters
point to a deeper crisis afflicting neoliberal
growth. A sector that was plagued by shortages
was opened up to private participation,
leading to rapid expansion in the expectation
of large profits from liberalised prices.
Public sector banks were called upon to
finance that expansion with the government
being complicit. Now, however, firms find
themselves trapped between inadequate demand
at prevailing prices and rising costs that
precipitate default. |
|
Factory
Workers in India |
Aug
14th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
number of workers in the industrial factory
sector in India has grown since 2005-06,
but other trends suggest that the bargaining
power of such workers remains low. |
|
The
State of the Economy |
Jul
23rd 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
Indian Economy is facing remarkable combination
of stagnation, inflation and a burgeoning
trade deficit which has been erroneously
attributed to the rise in oil prices alone. |
|
Did
Developing Countries Really Recover from the
Global Crisis? |
Jul
17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
decade after the Global Financial Crisis,
developing countries still bear the scars
in the form of lower growth and lower investment
rates. |
|
Keynes
or New-Keynesian: Why not Teach Both? |
Jun
27th 2018, Rohit Azad |
|
There
is a need for plurality in macroeconomic
education now than ever before for vibrant
policymaking and open minded academic engagements.
The difference between Keynes and New-Keynesian
is not only in their policy prescription
but their understanding of capitalism is
completely at odds with each other. |
|
George
Soros on the Current Conjuncture |
Jun
25th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Factors
like the U.S. sucking out finance capital
from the rest of the world; the appreciating
dollar; the looming crisis for the third
world; the refugee problem for Europe are
together pushing world capitalism into a
serious crisis as put by George Soros. A
Marshall plan may save the system but the
basic foundations of capitalism are against
this proposal. |
|
The
Government is lying to you about the Reasons
behind High Cost of Diesel & Petrol |
Jun
20th 2018, Rohit Azad |
|
With
the comical cuts in oil prices in India,
an international comparison with neighbouring
countries shows that the petrol and diesel
prices in India are the highest in the region.
While a rise in crude oil prices is borne
by the consumers, the benefit of a fall
doesn't follow the same route. A break up
of oil prices and taxation throws light
at the picture. |
|
The
Invisible Class |
Jun
20th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
peasantry has been dubbed as the 'invisible
class' for the simple reason that it has
been outrightly ignored. A basic comparison
of the per capita GDP of this invisible
class across two years using the Economic
Survey 2017-18 gives veracity to these claims. |
|
Has
Donald Trump Already Changed US Trade? |
Jun
19th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Donald
Trump is threatening to dismantle the current
world trading system, but in his first year
US trading patterns show strong continuity
with the previous administration. |
|
Shadow
Cast by the Rupee |
Jun
7th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
rupee has sharply depreciated in the recent
weeks giving reason for concern. The external
events of rise in oil prices and rate of
interest in advanced economies has led to
a surge in the current account deficit and
capital outflows respectively. The success
of 'the liberalization reforms' lies in
the huge capital inflows and thus, has enhanced
the periodic bouts of the rupee, hinting
to symptoms of a bubble economy. |
|
The
Misplaced Growth Discourse |
Jun
5th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
close look at the nature of recent high
growth rates provides ample cause for caution.
The growth shows absence of dynamism and
focus is on a few service sectors. It is
being driven by consumption expenditure
rather than investment which signals a probably
fragile and unstable growth process. |
|
Walmart's
Gamble and what it means for India |
May
29th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
By
taking the majority stake in Flipkart, Walmart
has committed itself to bearing losses in
the medium term in a desperate gamble to
thwart Amazon's rise in India. The casualty
will be the small retail business sector,
which supports a large volume of self-employed
and low-paid workers. |
|
Once
again, the Oil Price Scare |
May
22nd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
oil prices rise again, countries like India
that had benefited from relatively low prices
in recent years have to reconsider their
growth and macroeconomic strategies. |
|
The
So-called "Consumers' Interest" |
May
21st 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
argument in the wake of the Walmart-Flipkart
deal, that having large multinationals in
the sphere serves consumers' interest not
only ignores the plight of local producers
but is also analytically unsound. "Consumers"
are not an entity distinct from the displaced
producers and will get affected adversely
over time. |
|
Leapfrogging
into Services |
Apr
26th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
argument that services reflect a new dynamism
in India and the IMF’s prescription that
the sector can be a driver of growth and
development are far-fetched. |
|
Plurality
in Teaching Macroeconomics |
Apr
18th 2018, Rohit Azad |
|
For
vibrant policy making, an open-minded academic
engagement between contrasting viewpoints
is needed in macroeconomic education. However,
there does not even exist a textbook that
contrasts these contesting ideas in a tractable
manner. This pedagogical paper is an attempt
to plug that gap by presenting a comparative
study across different traditions in macroeconomics
in a unified framework, which can be developed
into a semester-long intermediate-level
course. |
|
National
Income in India: What’s really growing? |
Feb
28th 2018, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Recent income growth in India has been dominated
by sectors that do not reflect real physical
output increases – such as finance, insurance
and real estate and public administration
and defence. |
|
When
Business Turns 'Easy' |
Feb
28th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
Modi/Choksi case illustrates how a neoliberal
financial policy regime that is aggressively
"reformist" creates conditions
that make the system vulnerable to fraud
and corruption on a huge scale. |
|
Can
Banking Recover? |
Feb
27th 2018, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Recovery of the banking sector will require
stricter adherence to sound banking rules
and more transparency from public and private
players. And most of all, this applies to
the regulators themselves and the government
that frames all this. |
|
On
the Health Scheme in Budget 2018-19 |
Feb
13th 2018, Subrata
Mukherjee & Subhanil Chowdhury |
|
Neither
the union budget nor the National Health
Policy 2017 presents any clear and convincing
health sector road map. If it is serious
about providing health care to even bottom
40% of the population, not only should the
government increase its current budgetary
allocation substantially but also strengthen
the health infrastructure at all levels
including a strong regulatory mechanism.
|
|
The
Economic Survey 2017-18 |
Feb
4th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Like
the person on the proverbial tiger, the
Indian economy is currently riding a precarious
course. The Government of India’s Economic
Survey for 2017-18 recognizes this frankly,
but its panacea is to keep one’s fingers
crossed and hope that the ride continues. |
|
The
2018-19 Union Budget |
Feb
3rd 2018, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
strategy of the current budget seems to
be simple: make immense noise about “helping
the victimized” but do not give an extra
paisa from the budget towards that ends.
With the expenditure squeeze being carried
out to reduce fiscal deficit, the share
of central government spending in GDP
is in fact budgeted to fall.
|
|
Budget
2018: The Finance Ministry’s Grey Shades of
'Pink' |
Feb
2nd 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even
the vaguely "pink" effort in the
Economic Survey is whitewashed in the finance
minister's Budget speech that is heavily
based on stereotypical gender roles for
women, and even that completely disappears
when we get to the actual budget allocations. |
|
Where's
the Money, Mr Jaitley? |
Feb
2nd 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
This
government is especially good at optics,
at managing public perceptions to persuade
people that it is working for them, rather
than doing so. So it is no surprise that
Arun Jaitley’s pre-election Budget Speech
went on about how much his government cares
for the people, the poor, for farmers, for
women, for people running small and micro
enterprises, and so on. |
|
Budget
2018-19: No money where the mouth is |
Feb
2nd 201, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Billed
as the last full budget of this second NDA
government, Budget 2018 was not expected
to surprise. Its primary thrust had to be
a show of concern for the large mass of
the deprived in India, with some focus on
the agricultural sector which by all accounts
has been neglected and allowed to languish
over the last four years. |
|
Did
the FM Deliver for Farmers? |
Feb
2nd 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
For
those with short memories, let's remind
ourselves that Arun Jaitley has been promising
“top priority to farmers” for a while
now.
|
|
The
Budget and the Farmers: The government's dilemma
in 2018 |
Feb
1st 2018, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Budget
2018 is expected to be famer-oriented, with
persistent agricultural distress and near-stagnant
farmer income contrary to the promises made
by the government. But, even as the election
come near, the scale of increased spending
that is required for all of this is unlikely
to be met, given the self-imposed constraints
of "fiscal responsibility". |
|
Shopping
Frenzy in the New China |
Nov
24th 2017,C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba creates
a startling sales record on this year's
Singles' Day, tapping into the rising consumerism
of the upper middle class. The surge may
not yield the home market growth needed
to rebalance the country's growth. |
|
Indian
IT hits a Speed Bump |
Nov
21st 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A sharp deceleration in growth and restricted
employment expansion in the IT sector, India's
post-liberalisation showpiece, has implications
beyond the industry's boundaries. |
|
Moody's
Upgrade |
Nov
20th 2017,Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
slight upgrade of India’s credit worthiness
by Moody, that equates finance with nation,
is being celebrated by the media as a mark
of Modi’s success, but the criteria it has
used to judge are in actuality open assaults
by the government on the working population.
To transcend such neo-liberal capitalism,
the wrongness of this criteria must be understood
first. |
|
Engineering
a New Crisis |
Nov16th
2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Central
banks are deciding to scale back their policy
of "quantitative easing" in the
form of liquidity infusion through asset
purchases, but they are unwilling to commit
to a quick unwinding of balance sheets fearing
market reaction to a radical change in the
easy money environment. |
|
Monitoring
the Evolution of Latin American Economies
using a Flow-of-funds Framework |
Nov
9th 2017, Esteban
Peez Caldentey and Manuel Cruz Luzuriaga |
|
Flow-of-funds
accounting permits to monitor the financial
sector in terms of flows and stocks and
to analyze its relationship with the real
sector. Traditionally practised in developed
nations, this accounting has not experienced
a parallel development in developing countries.
In order to fill this gap, the paper undertakes
the construction of a data base of flow-of-funds
account matrices for various Latin American
and Asian countries, exemplifying their
use for the study of financial crisis in
these regions. |
|
Unbalanced
Global Growth |
Nov
8th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
distribution of the weak global economic
recovery since the Great Recession provides
little reason for optimism about the future. |
|
The
de-digitisation of India |
Oct
12th 2017, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
failure of digitisation is the result of
the Central government's cart-before-horse
attitude to policy, which does not take
into account the wider context and the supportive
and enabling conditions that must be met
for any policy measure to succeed. |
|
Create
a Crisis and make it Worse |
Oct
12th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
government's proposal to set up an all-powerful
entity to solve the NPA problem has serious
implications for banks and could leave them
vulnerable to, among other things, runs
by depositors. |
|
Strangulating
the Informal Economy |
Oct
12th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
current slowdown in the economy, aggravated
by the persistent world economic crisis,
has much to do with the twin coercive instruments
of demonetisation and GST wielded by the
state to strangulate the informal economy
in a bid to "formalise" it. |
|
The
Class Content of the Goods and Services Tax |
Oct
5th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
In
the discussions about GST, the class content
of this new tax regime has been missed.
Through an overall increase in the taxation
of the informal sector i.e. of the petty
producers and the small capitalists, it
has unleashed the twin process of centralization
of political authority and the centralization
of capital, which in turn strengthen one
another. |
|
A
Bull in a China Shop |
Sep
26th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
BJP government, through demonetization and
GST, coupled with the world economic situation,
it is causing a rare co-occurrence of three
phenomena: a stagnation of the countrys'
economy, a revival of inflation, and a yawning
current account deficit on the balance of
payments. As the era of cheap money in the
U.S. and elsewhere come to an end, Indian
assets might pass into foreign hands. |
|
The
Emerging Crisis in Real Estate |
Sep
26th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
slow down and partial crisis in India's
real estate sector reflects the challenges
facing post-reform growth in India. |
|
Downturn
Blues |
Sep
20th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
most recent deceleration in growth is the
result of the inability of the system to
sustain the artificial stimuli that the
neoliberal policy environment facilitated.
It is a problem that does not lend itself
to easy resolution. |
|
Problems
with Neoclassical Economics |
Sep
5th 2017, Amiya
Kumar Bagchi |
|
While
there are a few examples of successive use
of mathematics in forming empirically tested
mainstream theorems, excessive misuse of
this tool in neoclassical economics leave
little coherence between its "rational
being" and realism. In fact, many examples
prove that it fails to observe the tenets
of its own canon, and people are compelled
to consume beyond their need and capacity,
even in the face of mounting unemployment. |
|
The
Truth About Demonetization |
Sep
1st 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
recent RBI report that shows that 99% of
the demonetized currency notes have been
returned proves false the governments’ claim
that the scheme, that shook the whole economy,
would cripple the black economy, an argument
whose success lay in the demonetized currency
not coming back to the system. Moreover,
with re-monetization complete, there has
been no "flushing out" of black
money whatsoever. |
|
The
Economy: 70 years after Independence |
Aug
30th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Indias'
reliance on fortuitous and volatile stimuli
to drive growth has resulted in inadequate
job creation and widened inequalities while
failing to address social deprivation. |
|
A
Dangerous Analogy |
Aug
24th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
Democracy
in India faces a severe threat from the
penchant for centralization and uniformity
that the Hindutva forces have and which
Modi articulated in the Central Hall on
July 1 through his misleading analogy between
the GST and the integration of princely
states by Vallabhbhai Patel during Independence.
Such comparison puts a tax reform and democratic
revolution on the same platform, confusing
biased centralization with unity of the
country. |
|
Economy
Plunging Headlong into Recession |
Aug
16th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
The
few days old Volume II of the Economic Survey
by Ministry of Finance shows a GVA growth
rate much less than that of the previous
year, and that too artificially boosted
by seasonal variations in non-core sectors.
This deceleration is most likely to continue,
with growing NPAs and plunging exports,
and interest rate cuts will not help in
a demand-constrained economy unless the
government starts thinking beyond "fiscal
rectitude". |
|
What
is Really Happening in Indian Manufacturing? |
Aug
16th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Data
on organised manufacturing production do
not really capture the impact of demonetisation
and its effects on demand, but looking at
some sub-sectors of consumer non-durable
goods provides more insight. |
|
Twenty
Years after the Asian Financial Crisis |
Aug
7th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
It
was the free flow of foreign capital through
"financial liberalization" that
led to the East Asian Crisis of 1997, from
which the "tiger economies" have
not yet recovered fully. Even now, the augmented
foreign reserves of these third world countries
remain woefully inadequate to finance debt
to foreigners, as the hegemony of international
finance capital builds over their own assets. |
|
'Riskless
Capitalism' in India: Bank credit and economic
activity |
Aug
7th 2017, Rohit
Azad, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta |
|
The
Indian growth story of the 2000s' cannot
be over-simplistically explained as a result
of "market-oriented" reforms.
Public sector bank credit-financed investments,
particularly in the infrastructure sector,
played a significant role in sustaining
growth, most crucially after the global
economic crisis. Such a growth trajectory,
however, proved to be unsustainable with
the expansionary phase coming to an end
in 2011–12 and bad loans piling up in the
banking system. |
|
NPAs:
All talk and no action |
Aug
4th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
problem of large NPAs of nationalised banks
can be traced to the neoliberal reforms
in the financial sector and outside, which
prevent large government investments in
infrastructure and capital-intensive industries
that are imperative for development but
too difficult a responsibility for the private
sector to shoulder. |
|
Growth
in the Time of a Credit Squeeze |
Aug
1st 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
GDP
growth figures for the last few years have
camouflaged a deceleration in credit growth
that has affected all but the retail loans
segment quite adversely. |
|
The
Hamburg Fiasco |
Jul
19th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
There
is no sign of any consensus coming out of
the G20 on the need for a mix of globally
coordinated policies and a fiscal push to
pull the world economy out of recession.
What we have once again is a set of statements
that says everything and therefore nothing. |
|
Demography
and care in Europe: The impact of social relations |
Jul
18th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Trends
in social relations are both affected by
and impact upon economic changes. These
in turn have an important bearing on desirable
patterns of spending in the care economy,
as suggested by an examination of recent
marital trends in Europe. |
|
Justice
in the Age of Finance |
Jul
7th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
very limited Barclays prosecution comes
in the wake of a half-hearted investigation
effort, which has thus far completely let
off all those who took the world economy
to the verge of a crisis akin to the Great
Depression. It is not clear if anything
will finally come out of even this case,
which is aimed at merely teaching a lesson
to those who hurt a bunch of financial investors
by violating insider rules. |
|
The
Macroeconomics of Basic Income Grants |
Jul
7th 2017, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
idea of "Universal Basic Income",
today treated as novel, in fact dates back
to Kautilya's Arthashastra and Thomas Mores'
Utopia in the 16th century. Milton Friedman's
"negative income tax" also revolved
around the same idea, which was rightfully
criticized by Minsky for inducing inflationary
expansion in place of direct welfare schemes.
Considering distributional effects, direct
job creation is a more effective way to
tackle poverty. |
|
China's
Labour Market Conundrum |
Jul
5th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Has
China's labour market reached a point where
long years of high growth have led to demand
outstripping supply, resulting in a sharp
rise in wages? |
|
The
Roots of the Agrarian Distress in India |
Jun
29th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
policy shifts of the reform era have not
been in favor of agriculture. Trade liberalisation,
deregulation and a greater role for market
forces have not benefited the farmer, who
is trapped in a persisting crisis. It is
time for today's policy makers to recognise
their own disconnect, and learn from the
evidence at hand. |
|
The
Question of Farm-Loan Waiver
|
Jun
23rd 2017, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
primary reason why loan-waiver is being
demanded at present is not an output fall
owing to any natural calamity. It is the
price-fall on account of the bumper harvest
that underlies this demand. It is the breaking
down of an appropriate institutional mechanism
that is responsible for the peasants' distress
and periodic demands for loan-waivers.
|
|
The
Economy under Modi |
Jun
20th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
As
per official data, half of the country's
population witnessed no improvement in real
per capita income over the three Modi years.
Other indicators like the demand from net
exports, Central Government expenditure
(as a proportion of nominal GDP) and number
of new jobs created in the organized sector,
all reflect a gloomy picture of the Indian
economy. The government has been keen on
keeping finance capital happy while compromising
on these matters. |
|
Crop
Prices and Farmers' Unrest |
Jun
20th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Distressed
farmers are demanding loan waivers, but
that should not deflect attention from what
needs to be done and undone to address the
roots of the agrarian crisis. |
|
The
GDP Elephant |
Jun
6th 2017, Jayati Ghosh |
|
National
income is hard to estimate in India where
so much activity and employment is in the
informal sector. Much of GDP calculation
is not purely "technocratic" but
relies on judgments and assumptions. As
long as our system of national accounting
does not clarify the real impact on the
economy and the actual degree of deceleration
of economic activity, we will remain in
the dark. |
|
The
Unsustainable US Recovery |
Jun
6th 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even the limited and unsteady recovery of
growth in the US a decade after the 2008
crisis is based on an increase in debt that
renders it unsustainable. |
|
What
the data tells us about 'Sabka Saath, Sabka
Vikas'? |
May
26th 2017, Anamitra
Roychowdhury |
|
Modi
rose to power by promising development for
all, but his policies have fallen short
in meeting any of the related targets, especially
with respect to employment and livelihoods.
A minor increase in farm income was met
by the lowest-yet wage increase under MGNREGA.
Belying the promises of the Skill India
programme, Quarterly Employment Surveys
show even greater joblessness. Resource
allocation to health and education has seen
negligible growth in the past three years.
And the government narrative has shifted
from development to moral policing. |
|
A
Simple Arithmetic |
May
25th 2017, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
advance GDP estimates for 2016-17, however
calculated, show a grim picture of the economy.
The real per capita income of the agriculture-dependent
population, which constitutes half the country's
populace, has remained stagnant or even
marginally declined during the three years
of the Modi government. While the pursuit
of neoliberal policies can be held responsible
for this, treating the aggregate growth
as a "great achievement" for political
mileage is unwarranted. |
|
Where
will Global Demand come from? |
May
23rd 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
the US reduces its role as engine of global
demand, there are no signs that other economies
will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist
approach exemplified by Germany is creating
net global slowdown. |
|
Narendra
Modi on Poverty |
Mar
20th 2017, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
When
Narendra Modi talks of shifting away from
giving doles to the poor, what he has in
mind is that the money being currently used
for welfare schemes for the poor should
be withdrawn from such schemes and handed
over to the corporate magnates. |
|
The
Latest GDP Estimatess |
Mar
13th 2017, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
article discusses the possible reasons for
the latest GDP estimates provided by the
CSO not capturing the recessionary impact
of demonetization which is an indisputable
and established fact. |
|
Budget
2017-18: The macroeconomic perspective |
Mar
3rd 2017, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
One
reason why the government chose fiscal consolidation
instead of an expansionary budget in the
wake of demonetisation is its erroneous
belief that demonetisation in itself would
deliver fiscal benefits.
|
|
Bad
Loans, Lending Behaviour and Growth |
Jun
7th 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
interested observers focus on the bad loans,
accumulating in the books of India's commercial
banks, the implications it has for lending
behaviour and growth are less explored. |
|
And
Now, Price Deflation in India and China? |
May
31st 2016, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
it was presumed the developing world, especially
the more prominent emerging markets, were
less prone to price deflation, data from
China and India show trends of declining
producer prices. |
|
What
can Corporate Planning Learn from National
Planning |
Dec
29th 2015, Pronab
Sen |
|
This
paper examines the historical development
of national planning in India and identifies
the lessons that corporate planning can
draw from the long and varied experience.
|
|
The
Economy: The end of euphoria |
May
27th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Despite
having a good fortune of lower international
oil prices, the Modi government failed to
deliver growth in its first year while the
expectations are still very high. |
|
Government
and RBI: No real stand-off over macro policy |
May
8th 2015, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
current stand-off is more of a government
effort to regain influence over macroeconomic
management, as the government is accountable
to the people whereas the RBI is not. |
|
Lost
Between Intent and Belief |
Mar
3rd 2015, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
budget session is being undermined by the
Finance Minister as hypothetical revenue
figures make the allocation figures redundant
under fiscal conservatism. |
|
The
"Niti Ayog" |
Jan
12th 2015, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
replacement of the Planning Commission by
the NITI Ayog marks a centralisation of
economic power in the hands of the Central
Government at the behest of neoliberalism. |
|
Prof.
Bhagwati has Got it Wrong |
Jan
12th 2015, Rohit |
|
Jagadish
Bhagwati's recent pitch for make-in-India
is flawed as it ignores domestic demand
and other pitfalls of an export-oriented
growth strategy. |
|
The
Gathering Clouds of Recession |
Nov
24th 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
world capitalist economy's slide into a
new downturn is likely to be a harbinger
of major economic and political changes
within the structure of world capitalism. |
|
Wooing
the NRI Depositor |
Nov
7th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
significant spike in the inflows into NRI
deposits in 2013-14 has been caused by different
policy shifts of the central bank.
|
|
Dilma
Rousseff's Victory |
Nov
5th 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
While
Dilma's victory represents an important
step in the right direction, intensified
class struggle will be required to sustain
the scheme of "transfers" to the
working poor.
|
|
On
High Interest Rates |
Oct
13th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
RBI's decision to follow a restrictive monetary
policy seems to have been influenced by
the inflow of foreign finance, even if that
is at the expense of growth.
|
|
New
Macroeconomic Consensus Rules Budget 2014-15 |
Aug
4th 2014, Rohit |
|
The
author critiques the macroeconomic framework
that underlies the fiscal consolidation
approach of the Union Budget for 2014-15.
|
|
The
Way Forward for the Economy |
Jul
7th 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
Indian economy cannot be revived by the
neo liberal policies of austerity and incentives
as only fiscal intervention can break the
deadlock of stagflationary tendencies.
|
|
Who
is Afraid of Illicit Finance? |
Jun
16th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
NDA
government's move to appoint an SIT to bring
back illegal money from abroad brought more
complex issues of finance and government's
real intention to the foreground.
|
|
Stock
Market Boom amidst Economic Crisis |
May
19th 2014, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
stock market boom, within a slowdown in
the economy, serves the interest of the
finance capital, and the crisis cannot be
addressed because the boom has to be sustained.
|
|
The
Industrial Growth Conundrum |
Feb
7th 2014, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
variations in manufacturing growth estimates
by IIP, NAS and ASI triggered reports of
an upward revision in 2011-12 GDP growth
estimate, but the reasons are not obvious.
|
|
Is
There a Case for Fiscal Stringency in India
Now? |
Dec
11th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
authors examine the evidence on central
government's receipts and expenditure thus
far and consider the validity of the case
for fiscal stringency at this point. |
|
The
Missing Global Recovery |
Nov
26th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Periodic
predictions of a much-belated recovery from
a five-year long recession may divert attention
from the persisting crisis. But the evidence
is too stark to ignore. |
|
The
Elusive Recovery |
Nov
21st 2013, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
While
monetary policies have failed to resolve
the current global crisis, resistance to
fiscal intervention from finance capital
prevents any meaningful solution for recovery. |
|
Is
there a Flight of Capital from India? |
Oct
10th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Capital
flight from India aggravated the overall
position of rupee, but the country's balance
of payments position is the fundamental
weakness which needs to be addressed.
|
|
'Loans
First' – Explaining Money Creation by Banks |
Sep
30th 2013, Arnab
Kumar Chowdhury |
|
In
fractional reserve banking, the description
of banking as "accepting deposits for
lending" distorts the perspective in
which economics of banking is perceived
and analyzed.
|
|
Is
Fiscal Profligacy the Cause of the Crisis? |
Sep
10th 2013, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Current
account deficit is a major reason behind
lack of demand and slowdown. Government
spending on food security can boost demand
for domestic goods and chance of a revival.
|
|
Redistributing
Regulatory Power |
May
21st 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
FSLRC's far-reaching recommendations seek
a fundamental redesign of India's historically
evolved financial regulatory framework in
favour of a liberalised financial sector.
|
|
Fragile
Foundations: Foreign capital and growth after
liberalisation |
May
14th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
shift from debt-financed public expenditure
to debt-financed private expenditure-led
growth in India has resulted in increased
dependence on foreign capital and vulnerability.
|
|
Economic
Crises and Women's Work: Exploring progressive
strategies in a rapidly changing environment |
|
Mar
11th 2013, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Analysis
of women's employment and decent work in
the context of the global economic crisis
shows that gender sensitive policy responses
are more likely to be successful. |
|
Bad
Economics, But Worse Politics |
Mar
6th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
There
is nothing in the budget to reverse the
stagflation, even as the opportunity to
take effective measures aimed at showing
concern for the common man has been missed
too.
|
|
Niggardly
on Essential Spend |
Mar
1st 2013, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Given
that the Indian electorate would soon see
what the real implications of the budget
2013-14 are, it is surprising that his own
party let Chidambaram get away with this.
|
|
A
Recipe for Continuing Stagflation |
Mar
1st 2013, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Budget
2013-14 will deliver neither higher growth
nor improved conditions of life—instead
it is likely to worsen the stagflationary
tendencies in the economy.
|
|
A
Plan for Corporate India |
Jan
9th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Even
though talk of planning is a travesty, the
Twelfth Five Year Plan document is still
a shocker, because of its unashamed advocacy
of measures that favour private capital.
|
|
India's
Growth Story: A comparative view |
Dec
11th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Indian
growth episode was not based on the sorts
of stimuli and methods of financing that
have characterised the growth of some other
more successful Asian economies.
|
|
On
Deregulation in the Petroleum Sector in India |
Oct
17th 2012, Surajit
Das |
|
The
policy of oil price deregulation in the
face of rising international price of oil
would have direct detrimental effects on
growth, inflation and 'macroeconomic stability'.
|
|
Foreign
Finance and India's Development |
Sep
25th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
principal objective of the current government
seems to be that of winning and sustaining
the whimsical 'confidence' of foreign capital
at all costs. This is the new and defining
feature of economic policy of present day
India.
|
|
How
Wage-led Growth has Powered Argentina's Economic
Recovery |
Aug
31st 2012, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
manner in which Argentina has been able
to generate more genuinely inclusive growth,
through the promotion of productive and
fairly remunerated employment and a different
approach to social protection, sets a bright
example of alternative strategy. This could
be a learning lesson for all other countries
trying to come out of the current recessionary
trends.
|
|
Tweaking
Animal Spirits |
Aug
8th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
One
element of the emerging policy consensus
within India's economic policy establishment
involves spurring demand for the private
sector by diverting expenditure away from
subsidies for the poor to finance investment.
Simultaneously, a case is being made for
providing more concessions to cajole the
private sector into exploiting this opportunity.
|
|
Banking
on Debt |
Jul
10th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
latest figures on India's external account
reveal that the problem of declining foreign
exchange reserves is the result principally
of the widening of the current account deficit,
which was far too large to be covered by
an increase in capital inflows. While the
government may do well to address the vulnerability
caused by a rising import bill, especially
on account of gold imports, it has been
adding to external vulnerability by encouraging
further inflows of speculative debt capital. |
|
The
Blame Game around Oil |
Jun
13th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
It
is not that the UPA government is running
out of alternatives to tackle the woes caused
by the oil and currency shocks. The absence
of decisive policies and lack of inner consensus
have trapped the government in a debate
on who would bear the burden and how the
burden should be shared. A combination of
subsidies and tax reforms can address the
issue. But it calls for easing the grip
of neoliberal thinking over the UPA.
|
|
India's
Growth Story Ends |
Jun
6th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Even
when confronted with slowing growth, the
Indian government is adopting austerity
measures that trap the country in a recession,
because of the accumulated presence of foreign
finance in the country. The latter not only
increases economic instability, but also
induces an element of "policy paralysis".
Capital controls are a must to give policy
manoeuvrability to the government.
|
|
Growing
Differences in State Per Capita Incomes |
|
May
15th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
period of economic liberalisation has been
marked by growing differences in per capita
incomes across states, although the trend
has varied across decades. In this article,
the authors examine the evidence on per
capita Net Domestic Product at the state
level since 1980, and consider some possible
explanations for the observed trends. |
|
The
Price of Growth |
Jan
27th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
early signs of a reduction in the rate of
inflation have been used as evidence to
make a case for lower interest rates. However,
there is no reason to believe that within
the current policy regime, rate cuts would
not aggravate inflationary trends once again.
|
|
Democracy
and the Financial Markets |
Dec
1st 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
In
the last few decades, it has become increasingly
common for various developing and "emerging"
markets to give greater importance to appeasing
the interests of financial markets over
the requirements of political democracy.
Now, this is afflicting developed countries
as well, where governments are sacrificing
democracy in favour of the markets.
|
|
''Planning''
for Whom? |
Oct
12th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
There
are some fundamental changes in the Planning
Commission's current perspective relative
to the earlier periods. In the post-Independence
years, pursuit of profit was not seen as
being in the social interest and this was
reflected in the nature of development planning.
But now, profit is the sole motive and the
role of the state is to merely facilitate
this by incentivising corporate activity.
|
|
The
Challenge of Ensuring Full Employment in
the Twenty-first Century |
Oct
12th 2011, Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
recent economic growth process in India
and other parts of the developing world
exhibits the inability of even high rates
of output growth to generate sufficient
opportunities for 'decent work' to meet
the needs of the growing labour force. Therefore,
there is a clear case for a shift towards
wage-led and domestic demand-led growth,
particularly in the economies that are large
enough to sustain this shift. |
|
What
World Leaders Need to Do Urgently (but are
not) |
Oct
4th 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Global
leaders' efforts to control the prevailing
anarchy and enable recovery in their economies
end up having the opposite effect, because
the direction of their macroeconomic policies
is all wrong and mobile finance capital
is still largely unregulated. Here are five
basic steps that world leaders need to take.
|
|
India's
Schizophrenic Banks |
Jun
29th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
release of the third of the Financial Stability
Reports being prepared by the RBI provides
new information on the state and behaviour
of the Indian banking system. While banks
appear well capitalised and their balance
sheets robust, at the margin they seem to
be embracing too much risk. |
|
Trading
Growth for Inflation |
May
27th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
If
inflation is influenced by global developments,
adjusting domestic interest rates may do little
to redress the problem. The RBI's latest interest
rate manoeuvre may thus end up being successful
in contracting demand and growth, but it is
likely to fail to rein in inflation.
|
|
Employment
under the New Growth Trajectory |
Dec
22nd 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
comparison of the results of the 55th, 61st
and 64th Rounds of the NSS permits an assessment
of the trends in employment in India during
the years when India transited to an era
of high growth. It suggests that some of
the optimism generated by the results for
2004-05 may not be warranted. |
|
Surviving
Uncertain Times |
Dec
1st 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
It
is now evident that the world economy is
in for another spate of major problems,
with recession and stagnation likely to
affect the largest economies and altering
prospects for growth elsewhere. This article
examines recent patterns of the Indian economy's
external engagement, in order to gauge how
well equipped it is to face this uncertain
future. |
|
Fiscal
Discipline and All That |
Jul
27th 2010, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
There
was a sudden resurgence in Keynesian ideas
everywhere when the global financial crisis
broke in September 2008. But, equally suddenly,
financial markets have once again turned
back on state intervention and policy makers
are giving in to demands for massive cuts
in public expenditure that would require
enormous sacrifices from their populations.
|
|
Foreign Aid or Aiding the Foreign? |
May
1st 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
passing of a draft version of the Foreign
Educational Institutions Bill by the Union
Cabinet has raised certain questions with
protagonists and opponents expressing a
range of views on the subject. While there
is a fear that the process underway is one
of creating a window for foreign players
and then changing the rules in their favour,
question is also raised whether the implementation
of the Bill amounts to skewing further the
inequality in access to higher education. |
|
The
Travails of the Rupee |
Apr
15th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
significant appreciation of the rupee in
recent months, driven by a surge in foreign
portfolio capital inflows, has revived old
and generated new problems for macroeconomic
management. This signals once again that
the need is not for further capital account
liberalisation but for the imposition of
additional controls on the cross-border
flows of capital. |
|
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