The Hamburg Fiasco
Jul 19th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There is no sign of any consensus coming out of the G20 on the need for a mix of globally coordinated policies and a fiscal push to pull the world economy out of recession. What we have once again is a set of statements that says everything and therefore nothing.
Demography and care in Europe: The impact of social relations
Jul 18th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Trends in social relations are both affected by and impact upon economic changes. These in turn have an important bearing on desirable patterns of spending in the care economy, as suggested by an examination of recent marital trends in Europe.
Justice in the Age of Finance
Jul 7th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The very limited Barclays prosecution comes in the wake of a half-hearted investigation effort, which has thus far completely let off all those who took the world economy to the verge of a crisis akin to the Great Depression. It is not clear if anything will finally come out of even this case, which is aimed at merely teaching a lesson to those who hurt a bunch of financial investors by violating insider rules.
The Macroeconomics of Basic Income Grants
Jul 7th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
The idea of "Universal Basic Income", today treated as novel, in fact dates back to Kautilya's Arthashastra and Thomas Mores' Utopia in the 16th century. Milton Friedman's "negative income tax" also revolved around the same idea, which was rightfully criticized by Minsky for inducing inflationary expansion in place of direct welfare schemes. Considering distributional effects, direct job creation is a more effective way to tackle poverty.
China's Labour Market Conundrum
Jul 5th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Has China's labour market reached a point where long years of high growth have led to demand outstripping supply, resulting in a sharp rise in wages?
The Roots of the Agrarian Distress in India
Jun 29th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The policy shifts of the reform era have not been in favor of agriculture. Trade liberalisation, deregulation and a greater role for market forces have not benefited the farmer, who is trapped in a persisting crisis. It is time for today's policy makers to recognise their own disconnect, and learn from the evidence at hand.
The Question of Farm-Loan Waiver
Jun 23rd 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The primary reason why loan-waiver is being demanded at present is not an output fall owing to any natural calamity. It is the price-fall on account of the bumper harvest that underlies this demand. It is the breaking down of an appropriate institutional mechanism that is responsible for the peasants' distress and periodic demands for loan-waivers.
The Economy under Modi
Jun 20th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
As per official data, half of the country's population witnessed no improvement in real per capita income over the three Modi years. Other indicators like the demand from net exports, Central Government expenditure (as a proportion of nominal GDP) and number of new jobs created in the organized sector, all reflect a gloomy picture of the Indian economy. The government has been keen on keeping finance capital happy while compromising on these matters.
Crop Prices and Farmers' Unrest
Jun 20th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Distressed farmers are demanding loan waivers, but that should not deflect attention from what needs to be done and undone to address the roots of the agrarian crisis.
The GDP Elephant
Jun 6th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
National income is hard to estimate in India where so much activity and employment is in the informal sector. Much of GDP calculation is not purely "technocratic" but relies on judgments and assumptions. As long as our system of national accounting does not clarify the real impact on the economy and the actual degree of deceleration of economic activity, we will remain in the dark.
The Unsustainable US Recovery
Jun 6th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Even the limited and unsteady recovery of growth in the US a decade after the 2008 crisis is based on an increase in debt that renders it unsustainable.
What the data tells us about 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas'?
May 26th 2017, Anamitra Roychowdhury
Modi rose to power by promising development for all, but his policies have fallen short in meeting any of the related targets, especially with respect to employment and livelihoods. A minor increase in farm income was met by the lowest-yet wage increase under MGNREGA. Belying the promises of the Skill India programme, Quarterly Employment Surveys show even greater joblessness. Resource allocation to health and education has seen negligible growth in the past three years. And the government narrative has shifted from development to moral policing.
A Simple Arithmetic
May 25th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The advance GDP estimates for 2016-17, however calculated, show a grim picture of the economy. The real per capita income of the agriculture-dependent population, which constitutes half the country's populace, has remained stagnant or even marginally declined during the three years of the Modi government. While the pursuit of neoliberal policies can be held responsible for this, treating the aggregate growth as a "great achievement" for political mileage is unwarranted.
Where will Global Demand come from?
May 23rd 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As the US reduces its role as engine of global demand, there are no signs that other economies will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist approach exemplified by Germany is creating net global slowdown.
Narendra Modi on Poverty
Mar 20th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
When Narendra Modi talks of shifting away from giving doles to the poor, what he has in mind is that the money being currently used for welfare schemes for the poor should be withdrawn from such schemes and handed over to the corporate magnates.
The Latest GDP Estimatess
Mar 13th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The article discusses the possible reasons for the latest GDP estimates provided by the CSO not capturing the recessionary impact of demonetization which is an indisputable and established fact.
Budget 2017-18: The macroeconomic perspective
Mar 3rd 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
One reason why the government chose fiscal consolidation instead of an expansionary budget in the wake of demonetisation is its erroneous belief that demonetisation in itself would deliver fiscal benefits.
Bad Loans, Lending Behaviour and Growth
Jun 7th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As interested observers focus on the bad loans, accumulating in the books of India's commercial banks, the implications it has for lending behaviour and growth are less explored.
And Now, Price Deflation in India and China?
May 31st 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While it was presumed the developing world, especially the more prominent emerging markets, were less prone to price deflation, data from China and India show trends of declining producer prices.
What can Corporate Planning Learn from National Planning
Dec 29th 2015, Pronab Sen
This paper examines the historical development of national planning in India and identifies the lessons that corporate planning can draw from the long and varied experience.
The Economy: The end of euphoria
May 27th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Despite having a good fortune of lower international oil prices, the Modi government failed to deliver growth in its first year while the expectations are still very high.
Government and RBI: No real stand-off over macro policy
May 8th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The current stand-off is more of a government effort to regain influence over macroeconomic management, as the government is accountable to the people whereas the RBI is not.
Lost Between Intent and Belief
Mar 3rd 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The budget session is being undermined by the Finance Minister as hypothetical revenue figures make the allocation figures redundant under fiscal conservatism.
The "Niti Ayog"
Jan 12th 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The replacement of the Planning Commission by the NITI Ayog marks a centralisation of economic power in the hands of the Central Government at the behest of neoliberalism.
Prof. Bhagwati has Got it Wrong
Jan 12th 2015, Rohit
Jagadish Bhagwati's recent pitch for make-in-India is flawed as it ignores domestic demand and other pitfalls of an export-oriented growth strategy.
The Gathering Clouds of Recession
Nov 24th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The world capitalist economy's slide into a new downturn is likely to be a harbinger of major economic and political changes within the structure of world capitalism.
Wooing the NRI Depositor
Nov 7th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The significant spike in the inflows into NRI deposits in 2013-14 has been caused by different policy shifts of the central bank.
Dilma Rousseff's Victory
Nov 5th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
While Dilma's victory represents an important step in the right direction, intensified class struggle will be required to sustain the scheme of "transfers" to the working poor.
On High Interest Rates
Oct 13th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The RBI's decision to follow a restrictive monetary policy seems to have been influenced by the inflow of foreign finance, even if that is at the expense of growth.
New Macroeconomic Consensus Rules Budget 2014-15
Aug 4th 2014, Rohit
The author critiques the macroeconomic framework that underlies the fiscal consolidation approach of the Union Budget for 2014-15.
The Way Forward for the Economy
Jul 7th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The Indian economy cannot be revived by the neo liberal policies of austerity and incentives as only fiscal intervention can break the deadlock of stagflationary tendencies.
Who is Afraid of Illicit Finance?
Jun 16th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
NDA government's move to appoint an SIT to bring back illegal money from abroad brought more complex issues of finance and government's real intention to the foreground.
Stock Market Boom amidst Economic Crisis
May 19th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The stock market boom, within a slowdown in the economy, serves the interest of the finance capital, and the crisis cannot be addressed because the boom has to be sustained.
The Industrial Growth Conundrum
Feb 7th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The variations in manufacturing growth estimates by IIP, NAS and ASI triggered reports of an upward revision in 2011-12 GDP growth estimate, but the reasons are not obvious.
Is There a Case for Fiscal Stringency in India Now?
Dec 11th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The authors examine the evidence on central government's receipts and expenditure thus far and consider the validity of the case for fiscal stringency at this point.
The Missing Global Recovery
Nov 26th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Periodic predictions of a much-belated recovery from a five-year long recession may divert attention from the persisting crisis. But the evidence is too stark to ignore.
The Elusive Recovery
Nov 21st 2013, Prabhat Patnaik
While monetary policies have failed to resolve the current global crisis, resistance to fiscal intervention from finance capital prevents any meaningful solution for recovery.
Is there a Flight of Capital from India?
Oct 10th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Capital flight from India aggravated the overall position of rupee, but the country's balance of payments position is the fundamental weakness which needs to be addressed.
'Loans First' – Explaining Money Creation by Banks
Sep 30th 2013, Arnab Kumar Chowdhury
In fractional reserve banking, the description of banking as "accepting deposits for lending" distorts the perspective in which economics of banking is perceived and analyzed.
Is Fiscal Profligacy the Cause of the Crisis?
Sep 10th 2013, Prabhat Patnaik
Current account deficit is a major reason behind lack of demand and slowdown. Government spending on food security can boost demand for domestic goods and chance of a revival.
Redistributing Regulatory Power
May 21st 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The FSLRC's far-reaching recommendations seek a fundamental redesign of India's historically evolved financial regulatory framework in favour of a liberalised financial sector.
Fragile Foundations: Foreign capital and growth after liberalisation
May 14th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The shift from debt-financed public expenditure to debt-financed private expenditure-led growth in India has resulted in increased dependence on foreign capital and vulnerability.
Economic Crises and Women's Work: Exploring progressive strategies in a rapidly changing environment
Mar 11th 2013, Jayati Ghosh

Analysis of women's employment and decent work in the context of the global economic crisis shows that gender sensitive policy responses are more likely to be successful.

Bad Economics, But Worse Politics
Mar 6th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There is nothing in the budget to reverse the stagflation, even as the opportunity to take effective measures aimed at showing concern for the common man has been missed too.
Niggardly on Essential Spend
Mar 1st 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Given that the Indian electorate would soon see what the real implications of the budget 2013-14 are, it is surprising that his own party let Chidambaram get away with this.
A Recipe for Continuing Stagflation
Mar 1st 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Budget 2013-14 will deliver neither higher growth nor improved conditions of life—instead it is likely to worsen the stagflationary tendencies in the economy.
A Plan for Corporate India
Jan 9th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Even though talk of planning is a travesty, the Twelfth Five Year Plan document is still a shocker, because of its unashamed advocacy of measures that favour private capital.
India's Growth Story: A comparative view
Dec 11th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Indian growth episode was not based on the sorts of stimuli and methods of financing that have characterised the growth of some other more successful Asian economies.
On Deregulation in the Petroleum Sector in India
Oct 17th 2012, Surajit Das
The policy of oil price deregulation in the face of rising international price of oil would have direct detrimental effects on growth, inflation and 'macroeconomic stability'.
Foreign Finance and India's Development
Sep 25th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The principal objective of the current government seems to be that of winning and sustaining the whimsical 'confidence' of foreign capital at all costs. This is the new and defining feature of economic policy of present day India.
How Wage-led Growth has Powered Argentina's Economic Recovery
Aug 31st 2012, Jayati Ghosh
The manner in which Argentina has been able to generate more genuinely inclusive growth, through the promotion of productive and fairly remunerated employment and a different approach to social protection, sets a bright example of alternative strategy. This could be a learning lesson for all other countries trying to come out of the current recessionary trends.
Tweaking Animal Spirits
Aug 8th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
One element of the emerging policy consensus within India's economic policy establishment involves spurring demand for the private sector by diverting expenditure away from subsidies for the poor to finance investment. Simultaneously, a case is being made for providing more concessions to cajole the private sector into exploiting this opportunity.
Banking on Debt
Jul 10th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The latest figures on India's external account reveal that the problem of declining foreign exchange reserves is the result principally of the widening of the current account deficit, which was far too large to be covered by an increase in capital inflows. While the government may do well to address the vulnerability caused by a rising import bill, especially on account of gold imports, it has been adding to external vulnerability by encouraging further inflows of speculative debt capital.
The Blame Game around Oil
Jun 13th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
It is not that the UPA government is running out of alternatives to tackle the woes caused by the oil and currency shocks. The absence of decisive policies and lack of inner consensus have trapped the government in a debate on who would bear the burden and how the burden should be shared. A combination of subsidies and tax reforms can address the issue. But it calls for easing the grip of neoliberal thinking over the UPA.
India's Growth Story Ends
Jun 6th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Even when confronted with slowing growth, the Indian government is adopting austerity measures that trap the country in a recession, because of the accumulated presence of foreign finance in the country. The latter not only increases economic instability, but also induces an element of "policy paralysis". Capital controls are a must to give policy manoeuvrability to the government.
Growing Differences in State Per Capita Incomes 
May 15th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The period of economic liberalisation has been marked by growing differences in per capita incomes across states, although the trend has varied across decades. In this article, the authors examine the evidence on per capita Net Domestic Product at the state level since 1980, and consider some possible explanations for the observed trends.
The Price of Growth 
Jan 27th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The early signs of a reduction in the rate of inflation have been used as evidence to make a case for lower interest rates. However, there is no reason to believe that within the current policy regime, rate cuts would not aggravate inflationary trends once again.
Democracy and the Financial Markets
Dec 1st 2011, Jayati Ghosh
In the last few decades, it has become increasingly common for various developing and "emerging" markets to give greater importance to appeasing the interests of financial markets over the requirements of political democracy. Now, this is afflicting developed countries as well, where governments are sacrificing democracy in favour of the markets.
''Planning'' for Whom?
Oct 12th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There are some fundamental changes in the Planning Commission's current perspective relative to the earlier periods. In the post-Independence years, pursuit of profit was not seen as being in the social interest and this was reflected in the nature of development planning. But now, profit is the sole motive and the role of the state is to merely facilitate this by incentivising corporate activity.

The Challenge of Ensuring Full Employment in the Twenty-first Century

Oct 12th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
The recent economic growth process in India and other parts of the developing world exhibits the inability of even high rates of output growth to generate sufficient opportunities for 'decent work' to meet the needs of the growing labour force. Therefore, there is a clear case for a shift towards wage-led and domestic demand-led growth, particularly in the economies that are large enough to sustain this shift.
What World Leaders Need to Do Urgently (but are not)
Oct 4th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
Global leaders' efforts to control the prevailing anarchy and enable recovery in their economies end up having the opposite effect, because the direction of their macroeconomic policies is all wrong and mobile finance capital is still largely unregulated. Here are five basic steps that world leaders need to take.
India's Schizophrenic Banks
Jun 29th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The release of the third of the Financial Stability Reports being prepared by the RBI provides new information on the state and behaviour of the Indian banking system. While banks appear well capitalised and their balance sheets robust, at the margin they seem to be embracing too much risk.
Trading Growth for Inflation
May 27th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar
If inflation is influenced by global developments, adjusting domestic interest rates may do little to redress the problem. The RBI's latest interest rate manoeuvre may thus end up being successful in contracting demand and growth, but it is likely to fail to rein in inflation.
Employment under the New Growth Trajectory
Dec 22nd 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A comparison of the results of the 55th, 61st and 64th Rounds of the NSS permits an assessment of the trends in employment in India during the years when India transited to an era of high growth. It suggests that some of the optimism generated by the results for 2004-05 may not be warranted.
Surviving Uncertain Times
Dec 1st 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
It is now evident that the world economy is in for another spate of major problems, with recession and stagnation likely to affect the largest economies and altering prospects for growth elsewhere. This article examines recent patterns of the Indian economy's external engagement, in order to gauge how well equipped it is to face this uncertain future.
Fiscal Discipline and All That
Jul 27th 2010, Jayati Ghosh
There was a sudden resurgence in Keynesian ideas everywhere when the global financial crisis broke in September 2008. But, equally suddenly, financial markets have once again turned back on state intervention and policy makers are giving in to demands for massive cuts in public expenditure that would require enormous sacrifices from their populations.
Foreign Aid or Aiding the Foreign?
May 1st 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The passing of a draft version of the Foreign Educational Institutions Bill by the Union Cabinet has raised certain questions with protagonists and opponents expressing a range of views on the subject. While there is a fear that the process underway is one of creating a window for foreign players and then changing the rules in their favour, question is also raised whether the implementation of the Bill amounts to skewing further the inequality in access to higher education.
The Travails of the Rupee
Apr 15th 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The significant appreciation of the rupee in recent months, driven by a surge in foreign portfolio capital inflows, has revived old and generated new problems for macroeconomic management. This signals once again that the need is not for further capital account liberalisation but for the imposition of additional controls on the cross-border flows of capital.
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