The fact that monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan has not been deficient (ie. less than 80 per cent of normal) in any year since 1991, including in 1999, runs totally counter to certain common perceptions which are current today, given the huge media hype. Thus, much has been made of the drought conditions said to have been prevailing in Rajasthan and Gujarat over the past two years. But, as the Charts show, while there has been a decline in rainfall in these two states compared to the national average in 1999, this was not the case in 1998. The monsoon precipitation during 1998 was exactly normal in both the meteorological sub-divisions of Rajasthan and was 20 per cent and 8 per cent excess in the Gujarat and Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu divisions. Winter and pre-monsoon rainfall during 1999 was also more than normal in West Rajasthan and the Saurashtra-Kutch-Diu subdivisions. These two sub-divisions, which the media has claimed to have had the worst drought in a century did have deficient monsoon rainfall in 1999, and in Gujarat the winter rainfall in 2000 was also scanty. But the rainfall situation in both states this year has certainly been much better than in 1987, and, especially in Rajasthan, was also better than in 1991. In fact, it is other states - Kerala and Tamil Nadu - which experienced more significant declines in monsoon rainfall in 1999, but these have not received equivalent attention.
 
Another way of considering the information on monsoon rainfall is to consider it in relation to the kharif crops produced. Charts 3a to 3g provide data on this, in terms of the rainfall patterns in areas devoted to the cultivation of the major kharif crops. 3a shows the rainfall pattern for rice-growing areas. It is clear that this is close to the national average for the season, which is only to be expected because rice is such a major kharif crop spread over so many parts of the country. But it is also worth noting that the monsoon rainfall even in the relatively bad year of 1999 was well within normal levels. In fact, the extent of volatility of rainfall appears to have fallen over the decade of the 1990s as far as the rice-growing area is concerned.
Chart 3a >> Chart 3b >> Chart 3c >> Chart 3d >>
Chart 3e >> Chart 3f >> Chart 3g >>
 
As Chart 3b shows, the national average also tracks the behaviour of rainfall for the jowar-growing areas very well, although the peaks and troughs are sharper than for the national average. The same is true of maize, as shown in Chart 3d. For bajra, by contrast, Chart 3c indicates the crop-specific rainfall to be much more volatile, with less relation to the national average, higher levels of rainfall in the period from 1993 to 1998 and a more significant decline in 1999. In fact, for this crop, the movement is dominated by the rainfall pattern in Rajasthan which it has already been noted is not too strongly correlated with the all-India pattern.
 
In the case of areas devoted to the cultivation of oilseeds - specifically groundnut and soya bean - the pattern is quite different. In the case of soya bean this is related to the fact that the area under this crop is chiefly in the single state of Madhya Pradesh, while groundnut cultivation also in mainly in a few western and central states. In fact, rainfall patterns in the groundnut and cotton growing areas turn out to be strikingly similar, reflecting in essence the weight of Gujarat, and also Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, in the area and production of these crops.
 
The most crucial question is not about the pattern of rainfall alone, but the extent to which it in turn affects agricultural output. This is the issue that is sought to be answered in the data provided in Table 1, which provides information based regression exercises for the crop-specific data, relating rainfall, output and yield for the major kharif crops. The table gives the elasticities of production and yield with respect to rainfall, for the seven crops for the period 1986 to 1999.
Table 1 >>