Charts 1 and 2 give the work force participation rates (that is, number of all workers as a ratio of total population) for men and women in rural India for a fairly long period, from the early 1970s to the late 1990s. It is evident that the male work force participation rates have remained broadly stable over this entire period, fluctuating within a relatively narrow band between 54 per cent and 56 per cent. Within this, the latest period, the first half of 1998, shows a relatively sharp decline. It should be mentioned here that while this decline has been particularly sharp in the younger age-bracket (5-14 years) which is a positive development, it has also declined in other age-groups (including the most active group of 15-59 years) as well. This decline in usual status work participation is also matched by a similar decline in terms of the weekly status definition in 1998.
 
For rural females, the picture of work participation has shown a much higher degree of fluctuation. Here it is important to remember that while there continues to be a significant degree of underestimation of the actual (largely unpaid) labour of women, to the extent that the current estimates reflect the access of women to recognised productive employment, it is an important indicator of material status.
 
As Chart 2 shows, the overall picture of female work force participation in the rural areas is one of fluctuations around a declining trend. This is surprising because the sensitivity of NSS investigators to the possibility of women working has if anything increased by the 1990s, so that the likelihood of under-reporting according to the prevailing definition is less. Female work force participation rates were on average significantly higher in the 1970s until the mid-1980s. While the 1993-94 data do show a level comparable to the 1987-88. the general pattern based on the annual surveys shows a fairly sharp decline. The latest year in fact shows the lowest rate over the entire period. This tendency is extremely significant and the causes for this need to be investigated in much more detail.

Chart 3 >> Click to Enlarge

Chart 4 >> Click to Enlarge
 
Charts 3 and 4 describe the pattern of employment for all rural workers for males and females respectively. The picture that emerges from both of these charts, but most strongly for male rural workers, is that the period from 1997-78 to 1987-88 witnessed a significant decline in the proportion of primary sector employment, and the period thereafter, and especially over the 1990s, has indicated first a reversal of that pattern, followed by a slight increase in the share of primary sector employment over the 1990s.
 
For rural male workers, the share of primary sector employment fell from more than 80 per cent in 1977-78 to 70 per cent by 1990-91 - a fall of nearly ten percentage points which is a very large shift over a little more than a decade. The shift was to both secondary and tertiary sector activities. However, thereafter there was an increase in the share of primary sector employment, and over the 1990s the ratio has remained around 75 per cent, increasing slightly over the period.
 
For rural female workers, the picture is similar. Primary sector employment declined from 87 per cent in 1977-78 to around 81 per cent in 1989-90 - a decline of around six percentage points. Subsequently it has started increasing again, and stood at nearly 89 per cent by 1998. For both men and women, the shift to primary work has been mainly at the expense of the secondary sector, although even tertiary sector employment is lower compared to the levels achieved at the close of the decade of the 1980s.
 
These trends are extremely important, because it is now widely accepted that the diversification of rural employment away from the primary sector to non-agricultural activities in the period 1997-78 to 1987-88 was a significant factor in the reduction of the incidence of poverty at an all-India level.
 
There is now significant evidence that that the main dynamic source of rural employment generation over the period from the mid 1970s to the late 1980s was the external agency of the state rather than forces internal to the rural economy. Indeed, the role of dynamic agriculture was significant only in states such as Punjab and Haryana where agricultural incomes had crossed a minimum threshold and where further increases in agricultural output were accompanied by labour displacement rather than greater labour absorption. Outside this limited region, the pull was provided mainly by external stimuli.
 
In certain very specific regions, for example along the Bombay-New Delhi and the Bombay-Bangalore highways, industrial development and the growth of services linked to this did make inroads into rural society by creating new employment opportunities not only in the tertiary sector but also in small-scale industry. In addition, in the hinterland of industrially or commercially developed regions, there was growing incidence of workers who lived in rural areas but commuted to urban areas - a tendency which was enhanced by the fact that the organised sector has tended to prefer casual workers to regular employees, and because rising urban rents and deteriorating urban infrastructure along with falling transport costs have influenced workers' choice of residence.