|
Halfway through this year's 16-week
monsoon season, the government has been forced to admit
that India faces the prospect of suffering from the
"worst and most widespread drought" in over a decade.
With 355 out of the 512 districts for which data is
available having received deficient, scanty or no
rainfall between June 1 and July 17, even a significant
recovery in the monsoon is unlikely to save this year's
kharif crop from some damage. What is more, the
drought seems to be concentrated in states where
agriculture is a major income source and that are
crucial from the point of view of generating surpluses
for deficit states. State-wise data on the proportion of
districts receiving deficient, scanty or no rainfall,
released by the Meteorological Department, put the
figure at 92 per cent of districts in Uttar Pradesh, 93
per cent in Punjab, 100 per cent each in Haryana and
Himachal Pradesh, 97 per cent in Rajasthan, 85 per cent
in Chattisgarh, 74 per cent in Andhra Pradesh, 69 per
cent in Tamil Nadu, 68 per cent in Orissa and 52 per
cent in Karnataka.
According to estimates released by the Ministry of
Agriculture in mid-July, the three crop categories where
cultivation has been affected most seriously are
kharif coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds. In the
case of coarse cereal the area covered by cultivation
was at that point in time only 74.4 lakh hectares, which
reflects a 41 per cent drop compared with the
corresponding figure for the previous year. Acreage
declines have been particularly sharp in maize, jowar
and bajra, which are staples for the poor. In pulses the
area covered till then was only 18 lakh hectares,
compared with the previous year's figure of 30.2 lakh
hectares and a "normal" level of 103 lakh hectares.
Finally, acreage covered by oilseeds had fallen short of
the previous year's level by 51 per cent at 45 lakh
hectares. The drop here has been particularly sharp for
soyabean from 51 lakh hectares to 18 lakh hectares.
Combined with pessimistic predictions on monsoon
recovery over the coming weeks, this evidence should
have generated panic under normal circumstances. The
government has indeed sat up and expressed concern,
driven by the recognition that state elections are
around the corner and general elections not too far
away. But the response has been late in coming and has
been subdued because the government has been lulled into
complacency by three factors. First, the consecutive
excellent or moderately good monsoons that the country
has experienced over the last few years. Given the
intensity of the shortfall, when it occurred, during
those years and its geographical distribution, this
meant little for food security in a country where
foodgrain consumption data point to a fall not just in
per capita foodgrain consumption but also in overall
calorie intake even among the poor. Second, the
expectation that even if the intensity and spread of the
drought is as bad as in 1987, the fall in production is
likely to be less than 10 per cent. Third, the belief
that the large stocks of food grains that have
accumulated in government godowns, as a result of high
procurement and falling offtake, is more than adequate
to take care of any such contingency.
In fact, encouraged by the available level of stocks,
the government has declared that there is no danger of
the drought affecting consumers adversely. The Union
Agriculture Minister Mr. Ajit Singh reportedly stated:
"There is no dearth of foodgrains or other essential
items for the consumer, which can even be imported. It
is the farmer who is going to be really hit because he
faces loss of income."
The failure to mention the agricultural labourer here is
surprising since according to the 55th round
of the National Sample Survey on employment relating to
1999-2000, rural households dependent on wage
employment in agriculture or other areas amounted to 22
per cent of the total in UP, 33 per cent in Punjab, 26
per cent in Haryana, 22 per cent in Rajasthan, 40 per
cent in Madhya Pradesh, 50 per cent in Andhra Pradesh
and 45 per cent in Karnataka. Most of these households,
which are at the margin of subsistence would be affected
by the fall in cultivation associated with a drought in
two ways. They would not be able to earn adequate money
incomes and they would be squeezed by the likely rise in
food prices, particularly for commodities like coarse
cereals which they consume. |
