It's
been a frenetic year, closing a volatile decade in which
the rapidity of economic and social change in some areas
has been almost as remarkable as the continuing stagnation
and decline in others. So how do we interpret this and
what can we wish for in future?
Right
now there is a resurgence of economic triumphalism among
Indian elites. On the face of it, the Indian economy
has withstood the global crisis to maintain respectable
rates of output growth. Consumer demand is buoyant,
especially for goods and services consumed by the burgeoning
middle classes. So most private investors, both local
and foreign, are incredibly bullish about future prospects.
But there are no significant improvements in the indicators
that matter for most people, like stable employment,
better livelihoods, reduced hunger and more basic human
development. Rather, changes in finance and other economic
deregulation led to large capital inflows and sparked
a retail credit boom. These combined with fiscal concessions
to spur consumption among the richer sections of the
population. Meanwhile, large parts of the country continued
to languish in generally dreadful conditions.
This is not a particularly stable economic trajectory,
since credit bubbles have to burst some time, and growth
episodes based on volatile capital inflows have usually
ended in tears. In fact, agriculture and balance of
payments, as well as social and political instability,
are already re-emerging as potential constraints to
this pattern of growth. The problems in agriculture
continue to fester: the latest figures suggest more
farmers' suicides in 2009 than in any previous year,
even as the numbers shrink of those who call themselves
farmers.
Because economic growth has not generated enough productive
jobs, the bulk of the work force is in very fragile
and precarious forms of self-employment. Wages have
barely risen as profits have exploded, and people have
been displaced for projects that bring no improvement
to their own lives. All this leads to a growing number
of disaffected youth whose frustrations make them more
prone to violent or socially undesirable behaviour.
So it's not surprising that there is increased receptivity
of local people in depressed areas to ''extremist activity''
designed to overthrow an economic system that is seen
to be completely unjust.
So the first big item on my policy wish list is for
a major shift in the direction of economic policy: away
from seeing GDP expansion as an end in itself whatever
the costs and welfare outcomes, towards wage-led growth
based on improved conditions for the ordinary citizen.
This means more public spending on the basic goods and
services that should be obvious features of civilised
society: producing and distributing enough food for
everyone; ensuring universal access to good quality
health, sanitation and education services; fairly obvious
features like all-weather roads to all habitations and
electricity for every home. A fairly modest ambition,
you might think, until you would be told by our policy
makers that our country cannot afford it, despite its
pretensions to global power status.
Of course there are many other features of economic
justice that we could think about, but it turns out
that now we have to worry even about basic legal justice.
2010 has been full of assaults on India's democracy
and on its very impressive Constitution. Ironically,
most of these assaults have come not from external enemies
of the country but from within, and indeed from the
very quarters that should be expected to uphold the
Constitution.
This is only partly about abuse of power and privilege
in the corridors (and anterooms) of power and the growing
evidence of corrupt behaviour even at the highest levels.
The year ended with the most dispiriting news from judiciary
as well, when a court in Chhattisgarh found a well-known
and highly respected doctor and human rights activist
guilty of sedition, on the basis of the most flimsy
and dubious circumstantial evidence, and sentenced him
to rigorous life imprisonment.
The case against Dr. Binayak Sen, who had already been
held in prison for two years until the Supreme Court
intervened, is highly questionable at best. But the
judgment of the lower court is appalling not just because
it appears to bend to the problematic political pressures
of the state government and its police force, which
apparently wishes to intimidate any dissenters. Even
if its argument about the extent of Binayak Sen's involvement
(carrying letters and so on) with ''extremist elements''
were to be accepted, this judgment actually flies in
the face of the Supreme Court's own stated position
on what constitutes sedition.
In a famous judgment of 1962 (Kedarnath Singh vs State
of Bihar), the Supreme Court held that the offence of
''sedition'' in the Indian Penal Code must be interpreted
in a manner consistent with the fundamental freedom
of speech and expression guaranteed by the Indian Constitution.
Spreading ''disaffection against the state'' is not enough:
there must be direct incitement to violence or actions
that will lead to serious public disorder, and any speech
or deed milder than this should not be considered seditious.
Instead, this extreme and undeserved punishment is meted
out to someone who in a more enlightened society would
be celebrated as a positive role model because of his
concern for the poor and downtrodden, while actual criminals
roam about unfettered. On what basis can we now argue
with those who believe that violent protest is justified
because the administrative and judicial systems are
so skewed and biased that it is impossible to expect
genuine justice? And should we be surprised if such
judgments actually add to the extremist activity that
is seen as such a threat to the established order?
So my second wish is for a judicial system that works
quickly and effectively to uphold the Constitution,
to ensure the rights of all citizens and to deliver
genuine justice even to those without access to wealth
and power.
Is it scary that these two simple wishes seem to be
so wildly optimistic and even improbable in India at
the turn of the decade?
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